Experts have predicted housing prices in Moscow and the Moscow region in the second quarter

Moscow and the Moscow Region continue to show record differences in real estate prices. This was reported to Izvestia on March 20 by analysts of Atera Group of Companies.

If in previous years the cost per square meter in the capital and the region was approaching due to a massive program of preferential mortgages with state support, then in 2025 the housing market is influenced by internal factors and general economic instability. As a result, housing in Moscow is already 1.7 times more expensive than in the Moscow region, and, according to analysts, this gap will only widen.

According to data for March 2025, the average cost per square meter of ready—made housing in Moscow is 275 thousand rubles, while in the Moscow region it is 156 thousand rubles. Experts predict that in the second quarter of 2025, prices in the Moscow region will decrease by about 3 thousand rubles per square meter, while in the capital, on the contrary, they will increase by 2-2.5 thousand rubles. This will increase the imbalance, which is already reaching 43.7%, which is significantly higher than the traditional difference of 15-20%, due to the status of a "metropolitan residence permit".

Experts cite the completion of the preferential mortgage program, which operated from 2021 to 2024 and stimulated demand for housing in the Moscow region, as well as the higher marginality of metropolitan projects for developers, as the main reasons for this imbalance. In Moscow, it is easier to find properties with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 30%, which makes investments in metropolitan real estate more attractive. As a result, housing in Moscow is becoming more elitist, and in the Moscow region it is becoming less affordable for the mass buyer. This can lead to a shift in demand from buying to renting and even to an outflow of the population from the region.

Find the area: how recommendations for small-sized housing will affect prices

The Ministry of Construction urged not to cost an apartment less than 28 square meters. m

At the same time, experts note that in the second half of 2025, prices for luxury real estate and housing in cottage settlements may increase by 17-20%. This is due to an increase in the cost of building materials and an increase in the cost of paying construction crews. This is especially true for new projects entering the market.

Despite the current imbalance, analysts believe that the gap between prices in Moscow and the Moscow region will not last forever. Regional development programs continue to operate, and over time, the value of real estate in the region will "catch up" with the capital's indicators. However, this will not happen due to lower prices in Moscow, but due to an increase in the cost of housing in the region. In this regard, experts recommend paying attention to niche projects such as townhouses and clubhouses, which can be a profitable investment in the long term.

Earlier, on January 25, it was reported that the risks of a sharp rise in the cost of private homes in Russia have increased due to the fact that it has become much more difficult to obtain approval for a soft loan application from banks. For some banks, this is a necessary measure, so they cover their risks when issuing preferential loans. Because of this, there are risks of an increase in the cost of construction and purchase of ready-made country houses by 6-15%.