One of the main oppositionists, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, was detained in Turkey. This politician, according to opinion polls, could be ahead of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in popularity. He was accused of corruption, bribery, fraud, and aiding and abetting terrorism. The day before, the authorities revoked his higher education diploma, which deprives the mayor of many political opportunities, first of all, to participate in the presidential elections. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Arrest of Istanbul Mayor
"Ekrem Imamoglu has already defeated candidates nominated by Tayyip Erdogan four times. And Erdogan himself sees that Imamoglu will win again. And the popularity of the RNP, judging by a number of polls, is 20% higher. <...> This is an attempted coup in Turkey," Ozgur Ozel, chairman of the leading opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) of Turkey, reacted to the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
On the morning of March 19, the house of the opposition mayor was searched, and a warrant for his detention was issued. Imamoglu himself was taken to the courthouse, accompanied by police.
In addition, arrest warrants were also issued for over 100 more people, including Murat Ongun, the mayor's press adviser. According to Turkish media, some journalists and businessmen are also expected to be arrested. It is believed that the arrest warrant is directly related to the tenders of the Istanbul-based media company Medya A.S., which requested documents for 21 companies that won the tenders. Their computers were seized.
"We are facing serious bullying. But I want you to know that I won't be afraid. I love you all very much, I trust myself to people. Let all my people know that I will stand up straight," the mayor responded, adding that he was going to "continue the fight."
According to him, the authorities are "trying to usurp the will of the nation," and "they are trying to use the security forces as instruments of this evil."
Erdogan's rival
Ekrem Imamoglu became the mayor of Istanbul in March 2019. At the same time, criminal cases were regularly opened against him. He was accused of insulting members of Turkey's Supreme Electoral Council and in December 2022 was sentenced to two years, seven months and 15 days in prison after the politician called the cancellation of the results of the first round of mayoral elections in Istanbul in 2019 "stupidity".
In January of this year, the prosecutor's office launched an investigation against him under the criminal article "Influencing an investigation, expert or witness in the line of duty."
Ekrem Imamoglu is considered President Erdogan's main rival in the event of his reappointment to the post of head of state.
The day before, Istanbul University cancelled Imamoglu's diploma after a request from the Prosecutor General's Office of the Republic of Turkey. Now this prevents him from running for president, since according to the country's constitution, only citizens with higher education can run for this position.
The country's presidential elections are scheduled for 2028.
The Istanbul mayor was the only candidate for the primaries from the opposition Republican People's Party. After Kemal Kilicdaroglu, then chairman of the CHP, lost to Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the second round in 2023, Ozgur Ozel took the post of party leader. It is believed that together with Imamoglu, they have concluded an agreement: one of them will lead the party, the other will run for the post of head of state.
Some publications recall that Imamoglu's career resembles Erdogan's own path to supreme power. In April 1998, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was mayor of Istanbul at the time, was sentenced by a court in Diyarbakir to 10 months in prison and a heavy fine. He received this term for a statement that was qualified as incitement to incite national and racial hatred.
The situation is escalating
Meanwhile, against the background of what is happening in the country, access to some social networks has been restricted. In particular, YouTube, TikTok, the social network X, and Instagram (owned by Meta, which is recognized as extremist and banned in the Russian Federation) are not working. The authorities of the republic have not yet commented on this information.
In addition, the Turkish lira broke through a historic low — the exchange rate of the US dollar against the local currency jumped by 11.99%, reaching 41.1 lira per dollar.
Protests began in Istanbul itself at 14:00 Moscow time. Istanbul University students have already taken to the streets. Many streets and metro stations are blocked in the city.
Deputy of the Turkish parliament Cemal Enginyurt called for taking to the streets, despite the temporary ban on demonstrations. "Let's gather one million people and arrest them ourselves!" he said.
What do the experts think
Vladimir Avatkov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Head of the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that very important events are taking place in Turkey.
— In connection with the detention, the authorities have imposed restrictions on social networks in order to reduce the likelihood and intensity of protests that will definitely take place. What is happening became possible against the background of the transformation of power in the United States and the weakening of the globalists, with whom the mayor of Istanbul was closely associated," the Turkologist noted.
In his opinion, the situation in the country is tense.
— The deterioration of the economic situation of citizens is also superimposed on it. And this can be used. Both external and internal forces," the analyst believes.
Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted in an interview with Izvestia that the internal political struggle continues in Turkey.
— This has been happening since the last general election, in which Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party were on the verge of losing. The second round of elections and public sentiment clearly demonstrated the split that existed in society at that time," the Turkologist noted.
The expert added that Ekrem Imamoglu, who has now been arrested, has long been predicted to have a great future, and is even called the main opponent of the nominee from the Justice and Development Party in the next presidential election.
At the same time, it is important that the post of mayor of Istanbul is considered very important in Turkish politics, because many prominent politicians of the country usually begin their activities with it. However, if the suspicions and accusations of corruption against Imamoglu are confirmed, his future will be in great doubt, the political scientist stressed.
In her opinion, the fact that, at the request of the prosecutor's office, Istanbul University canceled the diploma of a politician, citing errors in its issuance, equally jeopardizes Imamoglu's political career and any further nominations and appointments to high positions.
— Everything that is happening is such an element of the internal political struggle. It is also important to clarify here that, according to media reports, many employees of Istanbul City Hall were detained along with Imamoglu, which also has weight in the case, the expert believes.
Sbitneva added that the opposition, represented by both the "Good Party" and the CHP, has already called this a sweep of competitors, noting that the opposition forces will maintain a united front.
— However, this is unlikely, given that there has never been unity there. The ruling circles in Turkey have become wiser and are no longer acting as clumsily as before, organizing such arrests immediately before the elections and thus provoking protests. Now, when the elections are far away, competitors are liquidated by themselves," the analyst explained.
In her opinion, the ruling AKP benefits from such a gradual elimination. Erdogan previously stated that his current term is the last, but recently there has been increasing evidence that he may change his mind, the political scientist noted.
The expert believes that even despite Erdogan's ardor, it is far from certain that society will accept him again.
— The last elections showed that there is some fatigue, including from the president, so the AKP needs strategic decisions and actions not only in the issue of stripping competitors, — the expert summed up.
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