Voice add-ons: What you need to know about the IOC presidential election

On March 20, the fate of the Olympic movement will be decided in the fashionable Greek resort of Costa Navarino. It sounds pretentious, but the upcoming IOC presidential elections are the most important in at least the last half century. Who comes to power in the most powerful sports organization depends not only on the growing process of Russians returning to the world stage, but also on the future of world sports. Outgoing Olympic boss Thomas Bach yesterday guaranteed the organization a financial cushion by signing a new three billion dollar contract with the Americans for the sale of broadcast rights. However, the sports movement is torn apart by such contradictions that the new leader has a chance to be not only the tenth in a row, but also the last head of the IOC in history.

How will the voting go?

Next Thursday, Thomas Bach's successor will be chosen by the current IOC members by secret ballot from seven candidates. The favorites include the "big three" — Zimbabwe's Minister of Sports Kirsty Coventry, British head of World Athletics Sebastian Coe and Spanish Marquis Juan Antonio Samaranch Jr., the son of the most charismatic president in the history of the organization. The "extras" are the head of the International Gymnastics Federation, Japanese Morinari Watanabe, the boss of the International Cycling Union, Frenchman David Lappartyan, the president of the International Ski Federation, Swede Johan Elias with a British passport, and the head of the Jordanian Olympic Committee, Faisal Al-Hussein.

Thomas Bach, who is retiring after a 12-year reign, has not publicly expressed his sympathies, but there are rumors that he is promoting 41-year—old Kirsty Coventry, the youngest candidate who could become the first woman and the first representative of Africa at the helm of the IOC.

Among the 109 IOC members eligible to vote are members of the royal families, including Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, politicians and diplomats, billionaire businessmen, current and former athletes, as well as Oscar-winning Malaysian actress Michelle Yeoh. There is only one Russian in this company, the head of the Russian Tennis Federation, Shamil Tarpishchev. The candidates' compatriots are not allowed to vote, therefore, at the first stage, only 100 electors will be in the cage. But as applicants drop out, the number of voters will grow.

The procedure itself looks intricate and archaic: six rounds are planned, in each of which an outsider is eliminated. Unless, of course, no one withdraws their candidacy in advance, and such episodes are not uncommon, because a powerful behind-the-scenes struggle is unfolding around the elections. Supporters of the eliminated candidate can vote for another person in the next round.

The voting process is secret. On Thursday, at about 16:00, the IOC will interrupt the online broadcast of its meeting, and all those present at the session will deposit their mobile communication devices. During the election, the number of votes cast in each round is not disclosed — only the names of those who dropped out are mentioned. Such a scheme seems to be designed to relieve IOC members from pressure, but coalitions have long been created, and what is happening in the voting room is usually a well—staged performance.

Who's the favorite

British bookmakers are betting on Sebastian Coe, the most media-savvy of the candidates. Perhaps betting analysts have some kind of insight that is not available to ordinary mortals. However, so far the head of World Athletics seems to be the most controversial of the seven candidates. And not only because of the long-term harassment of Russian athletes due to doping, in which the English sir took an active part. He has great difficulties due to his advanced age (68 years), the non-obvious status of a temporary member of the IOC, as well as numerous accusations of corruption and bias on the part of major sponsors. On the eve of the vote, Coe criticized the "opaque procedure," which indicates uncertainty about the result and a desire to find an explanation in advance for a possible failure.

At the same time, there are rumors in sports circles that Thomas Bach's team did a lot of hard work and practically guaranteed the victory of Kirsty Coventry, a swimmer, two—time Olympic champion and former rival of Russian Anastasia Fesikova. Kirsty retired from sports in 2016, but four years before that she became the head of the IOC Athletes' commission. Coventry represents the diaspora of white farmers, but enjoys the sympathy of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa. The latter came to power in a coup in 2017, and two years later invited the swimmer to his government as Minister of Youth, Sports, Arts and Recreation. If elected head of the IOC, Kirsty will have to resign from public service.

Elias, who has a weak position not only in the IOC, but also in his own ski federation, can be considered an outsider in the Costa Navarino vote: the Norwegians are very unhappy with him. Lappartyan is another Bach associate, but it is obvious that the German functionary "bet on another horse." It is unlikely that the officially announced election program will play any role during the voting. But judging by what was said during the presentations in January, Watanabe is proposing reforms that are too radical for the gerontocrats from Lausanne. Al-Hussein, on the contrary, is too cautious. And the possible election of Samaranch Jr. is perceived by many as a step back — a retreat, albeit into the glorious, but still into the past. Although the most unexpected scenarios are possible here, since it's not only about big power and big money, but also about crisis management of a colossus that is going through difficult times.

Who is more profitable for Russia?

The head of the ROC and the Minister of Sports of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Degtyarev, who has embarked on a course to normalize relations with international structures, says that our country is ready to work with any new head of the IOC. But the question here is whether the future Olympic leader is ready to work with us. Almost all candidates, to one degree or another, recognize the need for Russians to return to the world stage in a neutral status. At the same time, Al-Hussein and Watanabe accuse us of violating the Olympic Charter, and Samaranch Jr. makes the end of the conflict in Ukraine a condition for the restoration of our flag. And these are the most "pro-Russian" candidates out of the seven. What can we say about Coe, who has been saying the right things for a long time, but in practice pursues a harsh anti-Russian policy.

Listening to Sebastian talk about protecting athletes' rights, it must be remembered that during the entire time of the scandal with Russian doping, which has been raging since 2015, he has not once bothered to go to Moscow. But on the eve of the 2024 Olympics, he visited Kiev, where he welcomed Ukrainian politicians in every possible way. Watanabe also recently visited Kiev, although after that the Japanese functionary went to the Russian capital — the only one of the seven candidates. He will definitely not lift all anti-Russian restrictions the day after his election (if only because the new head of the IOC will take office only in June 2025), but the head of the gymnastics federation is at least ready for dialogue without preconditions. But if Coe wins, we will definitely have to overcome the barrier of political bias.

Kirsty Coventry, the main favorite, doesn't talk much about Russia, probably believing that the Olympic movement has enough problems without it. However, it should be understood that the current head of Afrika, Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa, has repeatedly spoken positively about our country over the past three years, in particular, offering to overcome Western sanctions together. Various American and European restrictions have been in place against this country for more than 20 years amid accusations of human rights violations. Against this background, Zimbabwe is strengthening relations with South Africa and China.

Problems of the Olympic movement

Thomas Bach leaves his successor a difficult legacy, primarily related to the penetration of the sport of geopolitics. Support for the Western campaign to "abolish Russia" against the background of loyalty to Israelis, rejection of the principle of neutrality under pressure from BLM liberals, an attempt to attack Iran and Afghanistan because of women's sports, the crisis with transgender and intersex people... All this constantly puts the Olympic movement on the brink of division. The German functionary himself tirelessly insists on the unifying role of sport, but his actions suggest the opposite. The attempt to "walk between the streams" led to the fact that Bach is equally hated in the West and in our country. This makes Thomas's protege vulnerable, and after the election, the new head of the IOC will definitely have to assemble the sports community literally in pieces.

Pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has a special relationship with sports, will be a powerful factor for the international committee in the coming years. The Americans are the main sponsors of the IOC and the organizers of the 2032 and 2034 Olympic Games. At the same time, Trump accuses the Olympic organization of spinelessness on the threat of transgender people to women's sports, and also criticizes WADA, Lausanne's main anti—doping project. In the coming years, the United States should host the Doping Olympics (Enhanced Games), one of the organizers of which is Trump's son. This project threatens to finally bury WADA in its role as the world leader in the fight against prohibition, which will result in incredible chaos in an important area that has also become largely political.

The IOC's position is also being shaken by the progress of extreme disciplines and esports. Young people prefer these areas, while classical Olympic sports are losing both their audience and credibility. The 2020+5 Roadmap for the modernization of the Games program, which Bach promoted, promoted gender parity, but otherwise failed. Trying to save the situation, the IOC Executive Committee announced the Esports Olympics, but so far these efforts look amateurish. Of course, the Olympic brand is still very strong, and many national governments are interested in maintaining Lausanne's leadership role. However, if the new IOC boss is not flexible enough, the building of big-time sports, which has been under construction for more than 130 years, may collapse very quickly. According to experts, the very existence of the Olympic movement is at stake.