Housing prices may rise by 10-20% due to the expansion of family mortgages

A significant reduction in the requirements for borrowers on family mortgages, which has recently been actively discussed by the authorities, can only lead to higher prices. On behalf of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, the departments should work out the issue of admitting couples with one child under the age of 18 to family mortgages. In this case, the benefit will become even more affordable than it was before the last changes in mid-2024.

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The number of new potential borrowers of a family mortgage in the case of its expansion may number in the millions, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to the most recent data from Rosstat for 2021, the number of households with children under 18 was estimated at 15.5 million people, which could have grown significantly since then.

Chernov believes that the acceleration of demand for primary housing due to the expansion of family mortgages can lead to a price increase of 16-18%. This is one and a half to two times higher than expected inflation, which, according to the forecasts of the Central Bank, will average almost 10% in 2025.

"If the program is not expanded, the price increase is likely to be lower than inflation," Freedom Finance Global said.

At the same time, Yulia Kovalenko, an economist at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, added that prices for individual facilities may rise even more actively. First of all, we are talking about mass construction, which remains more accessible to the public. However, according to economist Andrey Barkhota, the cost per square meter there may increase by 18-27%.

The Central Bank has repeatedly noted that government programs lead to an increase in the cost of new buildings relative to finished real estate. The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that in the third quarter of last year, the price gap across Russia for primary and secondary housing was 57%. She has repeatedly stressed that the preferential programs of the Broad Front are appropriate only as anti-crisis measures.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Preferential qualification: the expansion of family mortgages will lead to an increase in housing prices by up to 20%