Russians were told about a possible reduction in the Central Bank's key rate in April 2025

Against the background of a slowdown in inflation and lending, the Central Bank of Russia may consider reducing the key interest rate as early as April 2025. Alexey Okhorzin, Deputy President and Chairman of the Board of the Post Bank, told Izvestia on March 17.

"At the next meeting, the Central Bank is more likely to leave the key rate at 21%. The regulator has taken a wait-and-see attitude and is likely to maintain a tight monetary policy for another month. However, a downward revision of the key rate is possible in April 2025," Okhorzin said.

The expert explained that the spring period is less susceptible to seasonal budget flows compared to December – February, which makes it more suitable for easing monetary policy. However, he stressed that keeping the key rate at the current level does not guarantee stable conditions for savings products.

"Over the past week, many banks have already reduced their deposit yields. The peak of the rates set in December 2024 in anticipation of the key rate of 25% has been passed. If there is a signal of monetary policy easing, yields may go below 20%. Therefore, if you have free funds, it is better to place them in familiar savings tools such as deposits today," the expert advised.

As for the credit market, according to the expert, its further cooling is predicted.

"Loan rates will remain at a high level for now, but other factors will also affect the receipt of borrowed funds. For example, starting in April, the Central Bank may introduce macroprudential limits on mortgages and car loans for banks and microfinance organizations. As a result, it will be more difficult for borrowers with a high debt burden to get a loan," Okhorzin summed up.

Permanent temporary: the market expects the key to remain at the level of 21%

Why, despite the statements of the deputy chairman of the Central Bank, the regulator is unlikely to tighten policy

Earlier, on March 7, Elena Akhmedova, chief economist at Euler Analytical Technologies, suggested in a conversation with Izvestia that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation could reduce the key rate to 19% by the end of 2025. At the same time, the expert noted that from the point of view of macro data, there are no reasons for a rapid and rapid mitigation of PREP.

Prior to that, on February 14, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to keep the key rate at 21% per annum. The regulator noted that the current inflationary pressure remains high, and the growth of domestic demand is outpacing the possibilities of expanding the supply of goods and services. At the same time, the Central Bank drew attention to the fact that the cooling of credit activity has become more pronounced, and the propensity of Russians to save has increased.

The Central Bank added that the achieved rigidity of monetary conditions creates the necessary prerequisites for the resumption of the disinflation process and the return of inflation to the target in 2026.