Vance is becoming a danger to Europe. And here's why

Vice President of the United States J. D. Vance began to play a prominent role in international politics. He made a loud speech at the Munich Security Conference, which scared European leaders, and got into an altercation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky at the White House. Vance follows the ideology of Donald Trump in everything and is seen as his successor as president of the United States. How a 40-year-old politician promotes Trumpism in the world — in the Izvestia article.

He quickly became politically active

• In American politics, the role of the vice president has always been quite controversial. Due to the fact that there is no real authority, it is jokingly compared to working as a long-distance captain — in both cases, a person who takes up a position "disappears" from view for several years. At the same time, history also knows the opposite cases, when the vice president became an important political figure and took over the solution of some issues. For example, Dick Cheney under George W. Bush and Lyndon Johnson under John F. Kennedy led a significant part of foreign policy and were quite influential, not limited to the role of a person who, in case of force majeure, would be ready to take the oath of office of the president of the United States.

Vance is in the process of gaining for himself the same reputation as an active vice president, whose name is well-known. He is significantly different from his immediate predecessors: neither Kamala Harris nor Mike Pence allowed themselves such political and media activity. At the same time, Vance has been in the highest echelons of power for just over two years since his election as a senator.

• Since Trump promoted Vance to vice president, he has been at the center of political events twice. In February, he delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he outlined a radical reversal in American foreign policy towards Europe. He openly criticized the leadership of European countries, accusing them of abandoning the principles of democracy and freedom of speech. With this speech, Vance launched a process of reorientation in Europe from the United States to itself on the issue of security, breaking an almost 80-year-old trend.

Later, Vance played a prominent role in Trump's controversial meeting with Zelensky at the White House. The vice president's remarks about the US commitment to diplomacy in resolving the Ukrainian crisis infuriated Zelensky and turned the protocol event into a heated argument. This incident led to such consequences as the termination of American military aid to Kiev and the deepening of the split between the United States and Europe, which sided with the Ukrainian president. In both cases, Vance did not exceed the limits of his powers, but he had a greater effect than other politicians in power had managed.

Strengthened Trump's position abroad

• Vance served as vice president for less than two months, so it is already possible to draw certain conclusions about the role he is assigned in the White House. Trump carefully selected personnel for his administration based on the principle of personal dedication and willingness to act in line with his own ideology of Trumpism, and in the case of Vance, he did not lose.

• On the two occasions when Vance appeared on the front pages of newspapers, he showed himself exactly as Trump himself would have done, but in his own, more assertive and flamboyant manner. Vance didn't allow for doubt or slack, putting on almost a show in the spirit of his boss. This is important for Trump, and Vance coped with these tasks, passing a kind of first stage of verification.

• The undoubted advantage that Trump should appreciate is that Vance held himself firmly and at the same time sharply in front of foreign leaders. Trump knows how to deal with the internal public on his own, which is confirmed by his numerous rallies in front of supporters, where he literally blossoms, and a recent speech to Congress. But if Trump is already an undoubted authority inside the United States, then his allies abroad cannot hide their skepticism about him. Vance helps him reverse this attitude, literally making foreign politicians nervous.

• Experts believe that in the near future, Trump may delegate additional powers to Vance, and entrust him not only with solving simple and routine tasks, but also with quite risky ones, for which he will need to prove himself again. From May to November, we should expect some turbulence in American politics due to the fact that the initial credibility of the White House will be exhausted and the revision of the first decisions will begin. The second stage of testing Vance will be how he will cope with the impending wave of pressure that will be exerted on him personally, on Trump, and on other members of the administration, in which opponents will try to find weak links.

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Vance's debut became so big that they hurried to secure another role for him — a future successor. Contrary to stereotypes, the vice president of the United States does not always immediately move from one office of the White House to another - this has not happened for more than 30 years. However, for Trump, who lives by the ideas of a radical change in American politics and a shake-up of American society, it is especially important to have a worthy successor to his cause.

May become Trump's successor

So far, Vance has shown complete loyalty to Trump in all aspects. But even though he is acting in the wake of his policies, one can still see signs of an independent political project in him. Given Vance's age (currently the vice president is 40 years old, he is half the age of his boss), he is unlikely to want to rest on his laurels and one way or another will build his own career, striving to become the 48th president of the United States and, more importantly for Trump, his successor as leader of MAGA-movement.

• Vance already embodies the established Trumpism, which, as a new political force, is not just ready for decisive action. In the intonations of the current vice president, there is a desire to lash out at ideological opponents and competitors, something that he cannot do with full force with the set of current powers. By the way, Vance is at odds with Trump in this regard — if the president verbally promotes the philosophy of deals and compromises (he even wrote the book "The Art of Making Deals"), then Vance is still showing the world the image of a politician who will go ahead.

• About Trumpism, many analysts say that this movement is built exclusively around Trump and will come to naught with the decline of his political career. But Vance proves that this ideology can continue, that it is viable and will survive more than one political cycle in the United States, and in the future it will take over other countries of the world, despite the preached isolationism. The fact that Trumpism will take root in the United States and will be exported is precisely the fear of globalist-liberal Europe, since then the last hopes for the return of the United States to the old order and relations will be destroyed.

• Vance is suitable for the role of the new leader of the MAGA movement, at least because of his exemplary background. Unlike Trump, a billionaire from New York, Vance was formed in the American countryside and served in Iraq, he did not make friends with politicians and businessmen, but climbed into the political arena himself - at least that's how he positions himself. The current vice president looks as harmonious as possible as the leader of the America that he described in his own book, "Hillbilly Elegy," dedicated to the difficult history of his family.

• Trump's entourage also favors the recent senator and let him into their company themselves. The part of the American elite that advocates a nationally oriented path for the United States views Vance as their man and the future leader of the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party. There are no other bright leaders next to the vice president right now, although there are young politicians in the US Congress and the White House who will want to come forward in the coming years.

• However, it is not yet possible to say unequivocally that the choice has been made and the fate of the United States is predetermined. There are still moderate and opposition wings of the Republican Party playing a role, which, especially against the background of the resolution of the Ukrainian issue, may begin to resist the Trumpist core. If the peace talks fail, Vance will be criticized and will become a convenient lightning rod for Trump, which both traditional Republicans and recent colleagues in the MAGA movement will be able to attack. But by defending Trump, Vance will lose a lot of his political capital.

Outlined a new path for Europe by the United States

• The fact that Vance has a great political future ahead of him and distant plans are already being made for his nomination explains his particularly strong rejection from Europe, bordering on fear. Having voiced one speech and entered into an altercation with Zelensky, Vance would not have had such an effect if they had not realized overseas that now such an America could be with them for a long time.

• In Europe, they are afraid not so much of Trump, but of Trumpism as a phenomenon, since he declares the withdrawal of the United States from the European space. First of all, Brussels fears that the Old World will be left without the American "nuclear umbrella", which it will not be possible to replace with the French one in the foreseeable future. At the same time, if Europe knows Trump at least from his first term, during which it was possible to maintain relations at least, then Vance, younger, radical and uncompromising, is already becoming a real threat that European leaders do not yet know what to do about.

• After four years of close cooperation with the Joe Biden administration, Europe has become unaccustomed to the fact that the US attitude may be different, but Vance's speech in Munich sobered the EU. In Brussels, if they expected some cooling from Washington, at least not in the harsh form that the vice president outlined. The restructuring of transatlantic relations announced by him causes tension in Europe, as it naturally leads to chaotic work of the entire EU bureaucratic apparatus.

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• European leaders are particularly frustrated by the fact that they are currently unable to influence American politics. There was an agreement between the two sides of the Atlantic that they respect each other's choice and do not interfere in internal affairs. In such an atmosphere, it was simply impossible to develop any kind of instrument that would allow US to somehow direct American policy in the interests of Europe. If reliance on institutions, bureaucracy, and consensus can still work for Europe's internal affairs, it can no longer work against those who vehemently deny them.

When writing the material, Izvestia talked and took into account the opinions of:

• Dmitry Drobnitsky, an American political scientist;
• Andrey Kuzmak, an international columnist for Izvestia;
• Ilya Kravchenko, an American political scientist and advisor to the director of RISI.