The market expects the key rate to remain at 21%

The central bank will keep the key rate at 21% following the meeting next Friday, March 21, according to a consensus survey by Izvestia. All 28 analysts and market participants interviewed by the editorial board agreed that the regulator would leave monetary policy unchanged, despite the fact that Central Bank Deputy Chairman Alexei Zabotkin announced on March 13 that he was ready to consider the feasibility of raising the rate.

Delayed impact: inflation will start to decrease only by autumn

Why are experts not as positive as the Central Bank in its last review before the "week of silence"?

However, the market still believes that so far the conditions for either its increase or decrease have not developed, since a steady trend towards slowing inflation has not yet formed. At the same time, experts expect a softening of the Central Bank's rhetoric.

"The intrigue lies only in the regulator's signal, which, taking into account the latest data, may soften," said Viktor Grigoriev, chief analyst at Bank Saint Petersburg.

Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam Financial Group, also noted that the Central Bank could switch from a moderately harsh signal to a neutral one, ceasing to threaten a possible rate hike at future meetings. According to her, in this case, he will be able to explain under what conditions the PREP will begin to soften.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Permanent temporary: the market expects the key rate to remain at 21%