Inflation in Russia will begin to decline no earlier than autumn

A steady decline in inflation in Russia will begin in the second half of 2025, according to six out of 10 experts surveyed by Izvestia. The rest expressed a more optimistic forecast: two believe that price growth will begin to slow down in April–May, and two more believe that the process has already begun. Thus, by the end of February, the price increase exceeded 10%.

Time to slow down: expected inflation fell for the first time since September

But there's still no victory over rising prices

According to the bulletin of the Bank of Russia "What trends say", which the regulator published on March 11, there are already signs indicating a slowdown in inflation, but the sustainability of this process is still questionable. Currently, price increases continue to be accelerated by external restrictions — the supply of goods is becoming more expensive, as logistics costs increase.

Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, noted that the extremely scarce labor market does not slow down inflation. According to him, the shortage of workers will not improve until the end of the year.

At the same time, according to Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis Department at Finam, there are also positive factors, for example, the strengthening of the ruble affects the reduction in inflation. According to the Central Bank, since the beginning of the year, the Russian national currency has strengthened by 15%.

At the same time, if the Central Bank makes an attempt to lower the rate, but this will not happen before the summer, Olga Lebedinskaya, associate professor of Statistics at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, is sure. In her opinion, it is highly likely that in March the key rate will remain unchanged at 21% per annum.

Read more in the exclusive Izvestia article:

Delayed impact: inflation will start to decrease only by autumn