Dodik is not free: Bosnia decided to detain the head of Republika Srpska
The situation in Bosnia is escalating: the country's authorities have demanded that the police detain the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, who was sentenced to a year in prison at the end of February. Opponents of the politician accuse him of "organizing a coup", clashes began between Bosnian and Serbian forces, reminiscent of those that took place at the beginning of the Bosnian War in 1992. Against the background of the escalation, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte flew to Sarajevo, and the European peacekeeping force in Bosnia (EUFOR) decided to increase its contingent in the country. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The sentence is to be executed
The Prosecutor's Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina demanded that the police detain President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic, as well as Chairman of the National Assembly (Parliament) of Republika Srpska Nenad Stevandic. This is reported by Fokus with reference to the Prime Minister's office.
The politicians are accused of "encroaching on the constitutional order." Radovan Kovacevic, a spokesman for Milorad Dodik's Union of Independent Social Democrats party, said that "Republika Srpska does not carry out any attacks on the constitutional order," and "no one can or wants to arrest the state leadership of Republika Srpska."
In late February, Milorad Dodik was found guilty of "disobeying the decisions of the chief international envoy in charge of peace in Bosnia, Christian Schmidt." He oversees the implementation of the Dayton Accords, which helped end the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia and Herzegovina and lay the foundations for the country's governance.
The President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, makes a statement after the decision on his detention. March 12, 2025
According to the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Presidency consists of three members elected simultaneously for four years: one Bosniak and one Croat from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, one Serb from Republika Srpska.
The head of Republika Srpska himself rejects the sentence imposed on him — a year in prison and six years of prohibition from holding public office, considering it anti—Serbian.
The politician has previously been sanctioned by the United States and Great Britain. This time, European countries condemned Dodik, and the head of the US State Department, Marco Rubio, said that his actions "threaten the security and stability of Bosnia, as they undermine its institutions."
During a rally in support of the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik. February 26, 2025
The head of Republika Srpska retorted, seeing in the words of the Secretary of State "relapses of the Joe Biden administration."
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed solidarity with Milorad Dodik, and also condemned any attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of both Serbia and Republika Srpska.
Dodik said: "In the coming days, I will hold a meeting at the highest level with representatives of the Russian Federation, and unlike in all previous years, when I asked for the continuation of the [EUFOR] Althea military operation, I will now ask the Russians to veto and prevent the preservation of a subversive structure that abuses the UN mandate and He's threatening the Serbs by bringing in some kind of force just because they're asking for it in Sarajevo."
Following in the footsteps of the Bosnian War
The situation in Bosnia has escalated. In response to the sentencing of the head of Republika Srpska, Bosnian Serb lawmakers passed laws prohibiting the activities of the most important state structures in Bosnia on the territory of Republika Srpska: the court, the Prosecutor General's Office, the Supreme Judicial and Prosecutorial Council, as well as the key law enforcement agency, the Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA).
In addition, amendments have been made to the Criminal Code of the RS, which impose prison sentences and a ban on working in government agencies for people from Republika Srpska who did not comply with the order to leave Bosnian government agencies.
Republika Srpska is a Serb—majority region that makes up about half of the federal country. The second part of the state entity, the federation, is governed by Bosniak Muslims and Croats.
They considered the decisions of the Republika Srpska authorities "contrary to the country's constitution and the Dayton Accords." The Vice President of Republika Srpska, Chamil Durakovic, who represents Bosniak Muslims, accused Dodik of "committing a coup d'etat."
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte hastily flew to Sarajevo the other day. He said that the North Atlantic Alliance "remains firmly committed to the stability of this region and the security of Bosnia and Herzegovina," promised "unwavering support for the territorial integrity of the country," noting that the alliance "will not allow the hard-won peace to be jeopardized."
EUFOR force exercises at Batmir Camp in Sarajevo
The headquarters of the North Atlantic Alliance has been operating in Bosnia and Herzegovina for 20 years, which trains the country's armed forces according to NATO standards. In addition, a significant contingent of EUFOR international forces is stationed in the state.
What is happening raises serious concerns — clashes have begun between Bosnian and Serbian police, they resemble those that took place at the beginning of the Bosnian War in 1992. In response, EUFOR announced an increase in the number of its troops in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
What do the experts think
Milan Lazovich, program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), noted in an interview with Izvestia that the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina really raises concerns.
— Sarajevo and the federal authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina are only provoking and escalating the situation. If Milorad Dodik is detained, it will mobilize, and perhaps literally, the Republika Srpska. Dodik's potential arrest could provoke a civil war in Bosnia and a new round of escalation, the political scientist warns.
The Balkanist does not rule out that there is a risk of slipping into the Bosnian War period.
President of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik during a conversation with his supporters. February 26, 2025
— I would like to avoid this. In my opinion, Milorad Dodik is a strong personality, he is not the kind of person who will back down. If he is taken into custody, we will witness a sharp escalation of the situation inside Bosnia and Herzegovina," the expert believes.
In his opinion, the Republika Srpska authorities will probably begin to implement what they warned about. Republika Srpska will consider itself entitled to hold a referendum on secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina in order to protect the interests of the Serbian people. This directly affects the interests of Belgrade, for which Banja Luka is one of its closest allies, the expert believes.
Moreover, Serbia acts as a kind of guarantor of the security of the Serbs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the analyst added. Lazovich stressed that Russia is also closely monitoring the situation, as it "supports both Serbia and Republika Srpska in defending their legitimate national interests."
— Milorad Dodik is well known in Russia. Russia appreciates the independent and sovereign position of Republika Srpska and Milorad Dodik personally regarding the conflict in Ukraine," the Balkanist concluded.
Director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, editor-in-chief of the Balkanist portal.Oleg Bondarenko, in a conversation with Izvestia, noted that a very dangerous situation has developed for the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, and for the entire political leadership. Because the Bosnian Prosecutor's Office has issued an arrest warrant not only for President Dodik, but also for the Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament.
The Balkanist stressed that all of them are representatives of the official authorities of the Republika Srpska. They are guarded by official law enforcement agencies, primarily the gendarmerie and other law enforcement units. No one will allow politicians to be arrested for nothing; if violence is used, blood may be shed, the expert is sure.
The specialist fears that this could lead to a resumption of civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to him, anyone who tries to arrest Dodik, Viskovic or Stevandic will "open a Pandora's box", this is a direct road to a new civil war in Europe, the analyst believes.
"The West seems to be deliberately striving for such an outcome, not taking into account that Dodik has quite serious forces behind him and, in general, a large number of Serbs will protect him, so it's very easy to return to the format of the 1990s," Bondarenko said.
According to him, given the number of weapons in this country, "it won't seem enough to anyone."
— Approximately every first person is armed there. And now the West is pulling large military resources into Bosnia, obviously assuming such a development, but it is completely unclear who and why a new war in Europe is needed," the Balkanist concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
