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Energy dependence: The Baltic States cannot find ways to do without Russian electricity
On March 10, a solemn ceremony was held at the National Museum of Lithuania in Vilnius. Representatives of the state-owned Litgrid company, the Lithuanian electricity grid operator, donated a four-meter-long piece of cable to the museum. This is how the country celebrated the month that has passed since the Baltic states left the BRELL energy ring. During this time, electricity prices in the region have increased several times, and some enterprises are forced to suspend their activities because they cannot cope with the increased prices. Officials claim that the price increase has nothing to do with the exit from the BRELL, "it just so happened," and the population is grumbling. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
The celebration was short-lived
Although the Baltic states refused to purchase Russian electricity back in 2022, the BRELL ring (Belarus — Russia — Estonia — Lithuania — Latvia), in which they were located until February 8, 2025, played an important role in ensuring the energy stability of the Baltic States. Each of its five member States had 150 MW of reserve capacity ready in case of emergencies. In the event of an emergency (an accident at a power plant or a downed power line from a storm), the affected country could always count on the operational support of other participants in the energy ring.
However, political calculations prevailed over pragmatism. The withdrawal from the BRELL in the Baltic States was proclaimed "the final elimination of the consequences of the Soviet occupation." Moreover, Estonian President Alar Karis advised the European Union to impose a complete embargo on any trade with Russia.
Technical specialists, however, refrained from bravura assessments. Thus, the head of the Lithuanian network operator Litgrid, Rokas Masiulis, did not hide the fact that in the next five years the country will have to invest € 2 billion in its electricity networks. Lithuania is now connected to neighboring Poland by a single line.
Since leaving the energy ring, electricity prices in the wholesale market of the Nord Pool for the Baltic countries have increased several times. Previously, it was about €62 per megawatt, but after leaving the BRELL, the average price soared to €200, and on some days it reached almost €270. This has affected not only ordinary consumers, but also businesses.
For example, on February 15, the Estonian cellulose production company Estonian Cell, the country's largest consumer of electricity, was forced to suspend its work. The company's representatives explained that the exchange price of electricity in Estonia has increased to a record high of €269.16 per megawatt hour. Experts advised consumers to monitor price fluctuations on the Nord Pool energy exchange so as not to miss the moments of their maximum rise. "During these hours, we recommend consumers to reduce their electricity consumption as much as possible and use energy—intensive devices during other hours," said Mantas Kavaliauskas, Product Development Manager at Lithuanian company Elektrum Lietuva.
Estonian Cell, an Estonian pulp production company, is the country's largest consumer of electricity
On March 5, Litgrid reported that the average wholesale price of electricity in Lithuania in February increased by 70% compared to January and amounted to €152.3 per megawatt hour. In Latvia and Estonia, the price of electricity in February was the same as in Lithuania. According to Litgrid employee Andrews Maneikis, the main factors influencing the price increase were a 0.4% increase in electricity consumption (to 1,034 gigawatt-hours), rising gas prices and a halving of wind generation in Lithuania. "During cold periods, there are usually no strong winds, so in February, wind farms generated half as much electricity as in January. They were replaced by more expensive thermal power plants and imports from neighboring countries," Maneikis explained.
And the sun doesn't shine, and the wind doesn't blow.
The Baltic authorities are trying to convince the population that the February increase in electricity prices has nothing to do with leaving the BRELL and is due to a set of coincidences. "This year, winter, which came to our region a little later than usual, led to an increase in electricity prices in February. The cold weather that set in throughout the region in the middle of the month resulted in increased consumption. Electricity prices have increased in most neighboring countries," Maneikis said. In fact, in Poland, the cost of electricity in February reached €134, in Germany — €128, and in the southern zone of Sweden — €92 per megawatt hour. In other words, the growth in neighboring countries was lower than in the Baltic States.
In addition, according to Maneikis, the high price of electricity was also caused by damage to the EstLink 2 line between Finland and Estonia in December last year. The Balts and Finns unsuccessfully tried to explain this state of emergency as "Russian sabotage." The failure of the cable has limited the possibility of importing cheaper electricity to Estonia. The repair of the connection may last until August. However, this is not the main reason for the price increase in the region. In recent years, the Balts, having come to believe in Brussels' mantras about the lack of alternatives to green energy, have invested mainly in wind turbines and solar power plants. At the same time, the region is able to independently meet its energy needs by only 70% — the rest has to be purchased abroad.
Estlink electric Cable section
In February, according to local experts, the sun shone little, the winds blew rarely, gas prices increased — hence the increase in tariffs. Renatas Pocius, Chairman of the Lithuanian National Energy Regulatory Council, complained: "We don't have enough generating capacity. Our specifics are such that in February we often generate less from renewable sources. Gas is expensive, and due to the cold weather, electricity consumption is increasing. Therefore, all these reasons add up." And Marko Allikson, a member of the board of the Estonian energy company Baltic Energy Partners, makes excuses.: "There are few participants in the market, and we lack flexible producers in the region, so electricity prices fluctuate very much. In recent days, we have seen jumps for a thousand euros and above. This increases the cost of maintaining the balance, which is ultimately reflected in consumer accounts with exchange packages." Experts say that gas will become cheaper over time, but residents of the Baltic States are primarily concerned about the near future.
Since people do not really believe the explanations about the lack of a relationship between the exit from the BRELL and rising prices, Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Palukas had to speak out. "This problem actually has nothing to do with our synchronization with the EU energy grids. We see that it has gotten colder, demand has increased, and our interconnections are limited, I mean NordBalt (Swedish-Lithuanian marine electrical connection. — Izvestia). After all, we all know perfectly well that one of Estonia's interconnectors with Finland is damaged," Paluckas told reporters in Klaipeda.
However, Roberts Samtins, Chairman of the Management Board of the Latvian energy company AJ Power, adds: after synchronizing the local electricity grid with the European Union, additional costs associated with maintaining backup capacities arose. In accordance with the approved regulations, the costs for this are planned to be shifted to end users. And Alexela Calvi Nu, head of the Electricity trading department, admits that the connection of the Baltic States to the EU network has led to a temporary decrease in the capacity of local electrical connections.
"Why do I need such independence?"
In the future, the Baltic states will have to bear additional costs due to the fact that they will have to pay for reserve capacities from other countries that they will need in case of any emergency. Now the Balts are trying to agree on the creation of one large common power plant, which should help to cope with energy shortages, but this is a long-term matter.
On March 1, the first evidence was received of how unstable the Baltic states' energy system had become without BRELL. Almost half of the residents of the city of Kuressaare in Estonia were left without electricity for a day. Some city schools and kindergartens were affected by the accident. Several pumps in the city's sewage system also shut down. The reason is a short circuit in three underground power lines. "When snow melts or water rises, the load on the cables increases, and some weak points may fail, that is, a short circuit occurs, which triggers our automation," said the network operator Elektrilevi. According to the operator, "it may happen that a cable fails somewhere, and then, as a chain reaction, it disables several more weak points." Previously, such a massive shutdown could have been avoided, as the city would have received backup power in a timely manner.
Residents who started receiving bills for February are outraged. "What can I say? Thanks to the stupid nationalists who pompously presented that Latvia had disconnected from the BRLL. The bill for electricity (gas) was three times more expensive than it was a month ago. Now the population will be mired in huge debts again. People, regardless of nationality, will be turned off electricity, heat, water, and eventually evicted from their apartments! I can say: why do I need such independence from Russia or Belarus, if it hits my pocket very hard! My opinion is that it's time to drive all these "benefactors" back!" says Igor Amelka, a journalist with the Daugavpils newspaper Million.
The Estonian newspaper Postimees writes about the unpleasant feeling experienced by residents of Tallinn in March, when they began receiving electricity bills for the previous month. "Compared to January, electricity prices in February were almost 65 percent higher," said Karl—Joosep Randweer, an analyst at state-owned Eesti Energia.
Natalia Eremina, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at St. Petersburg State University, in an interview with Izvestia, recalled that the political elite of the Baltic states, which consistently plunges the region's economy to the bottom by severing long-term economic ties with Russia, does not suffer from this itself, as it sits on the "cutting" of funds from European structural funds and does not forget to regularly raise its own salaries. "All costs have to be borne by ordinary residents, who are told that there is no other way, that Russia is so aggressive and vicious that the Baltic States have to isolate themselves from their "unpredictable" neighbor to ensure their security. However, geography cannot be fooled, the Baltic States are doomed to remain close to Russia, and therefore, if the current policy is maintained, it will increasingly drive itself into a dead end," Eremina emphasizes.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
