The analyst predicted the effect of the planned measures to support the Chinese economy

An annual parliamentary session is being held in China from March 5 to 11, 2025, at which, among other things, an economic support program is being discussed. Nikanor Khalin, a senior analyst for the metallurgical and mining sector, told Izvestia on March 11 what effect the authorities' actions are expected to have.

"A large fiscal package will support China's economy <...>. The Chinese government plans to keep the GDP growth rate near 5% in 2025 due to a large aid package that involves increasing the national budget deficit from 3% to 4% of GDP, providing liquidity to banks, as well as additional issuance of central and local government bonds," the expert noted.

According to him, as a result, China's national debt will increase by 11.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, and the consolidated budget deficit (including local governments) will reach 12.6% of GDP. At the same time, the new package of measures will accelerate the recovery of the real estate sector.

"This will affect the global metals market, including the steel market, the most important factor for which is the large overhang of supply in China. The PRC Development and Reform Commission plans to reduce excess steel production in 2025: the reduction may range from 20 to 50 million tons (2-5% of output in 2024). As a result, China may slow down steel exports, which increased by 22% in 2024 and by 8% in January–February 2025," Khalin concluded.

Stumble upon a tariff: how much will the mutual duties of China and the United States hit their economies

And who was best prepared for the trade war started by Trump?

Earlier, US President Donald Trump doubled duties on goods from China from 10% to 20% on March 4. In turn, China has imposed import duties of 15% on a number of American products since March 10 and imposed export controls on 15 companies.

Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told Izvestia that China was the best prepared for the "war of duties", and high tariffs on the supply of goods to the United States of America would not affect its economy much.