Not in resources: Europe is trying to find ways to support Ukraine without the United States

Against the background of the suspension of US military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, efforts to support Kiev have expectedly intensified in European capitals. So, Paris and London are going to transfer to Ukraine the income from illegally frozen Russian assets. Inside the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, they reportedly intend to create a "four eyes" subgroup to supply the Armed Forces with intelligence without Washington's involvement. On March 11, France will hold a meeting with the heads of the general staffs of a number of countries, where they will discuss the possible deployment of a "European contingent" on Ukrainian territory. On the same day, the OSCE Secretary General will arrive in Moscow for the first time since 2021. Meanwhile, the United States is changing its approach to resolving the Ukrainian crisis - according to media reports, Washington has insisted on softening its rhetoric towards Russia in the G7.

France is going to "help" Ukraine at the expense of the Russian Federation

The suspension of US funding and the dialogue between Washington and Moscow that has begun forces European countries to look for new ways to support Kiev, from redistributing profits from frozen assets of the Russian Federation to the possible deployment of a military contingent in Ukraine. One of the first such steps was France's decision to allocate €195 million for the purchase of weapons and ammunition. Defense Minister Sebastian Lecornu stressed on March 9 that the funds would come not from the French budget, but from income from blocked Russian assets. It is claimed that another illegal attempt to use Russian funds will allow European countries to continue supporting Ukraine without significant financial losses for their own economies. Earlier, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also announced assistance to Ukraine at the expense of profits from Russian assets.

Alexey Zhuravlev, first deputy chairman of the State Duma's defense committee, criticized the actions of the European authorities in an interview with Izvestia, calling them evidence of the financial crisis in the West.

— It was clear that sooner or later it would start — it wasn't for nothing that they stole our assets, not in order to protect them and multiply them. The UK does not have enough money of its own, for example, for military spending — the largest budget deficit for procurement since 2012 has been recorded at 17 billion pounds," said Alexey Zhuravlev.

In his opinion, European banks have ruined their reputation in this way. Now neither China, nor India, nor the Persian Gulf countries will turn to them — "the safety of the invested funds is no longer guaranteed."

— This is an indicator of how strangely everything is arranged in the current Western world — in order to harm Russia, they are ready to act at a loss, as they say, "I'll freeze my ears to spite Dad," the deputy noted.

Europe is trying to compensate for the absence of the United States

In addition to financial support, Paris also undertook to coordinate the actions of the allies. A meeting of the chiefs of general staff of a number of countries supporting Ukraine is scheduled for March 11. According to French President Emmanuel Macron, one of the key topics will be the possible deployment of a "European contingent" on Ukrainian territory. He stressed that these forces would not participate in the fighting, and their mission would be limited to monitoring compliance with a potential peace agreement.

Earlier, The New York Times, citing a senior EU source, reported that European countries do not even have 200,000 troops to deploy in Ukraine. In addition, such actions are possible only with American support. According to the newspaper, Europe is not able to deploy even 40,000 soldiers due to slow economic growth, a shortage of military personnel and increased military spending for its own protection.

Against the background of changes in Washington's approach to the Ukrainian issue, London is considering the creation of a subgroup within the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which would allow Britain and other allies to exchange information without the participation of the United States, the Daily Mail newspaper reports. According to the publication, this is due to the fact that the Donald Trump administration not only stopped transmitting such data to Kiev, but also forbade alliance members from using American information in the interests of Ukraine (the Five Eyes also includes Australia, Canada and New Zealand).

This could compensate for the losses in Ukraine's intelligence capabilities, but the effectiveness of such a subgroup remains questionable. The UK traditionally focuses on secret intelligence, while the United States has powerful technical means of tracking and analysis, Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

— Without American satellite and electronic intelligence, the British will not be able to fully fill in the gaps in data on the situation on the front line. London will try to maximize the use of available resources, but without Washington, the effectiveness of intelligence will decrease," the expert notes.

Not everyone in Europe supports the anti-Russian approach to resolving the Ukrainian conflict. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on March 9 that only Russian President Vladimir Putin has a real plan that will completely end the conflict in Ukraine. Hungary also refuses Kiev's unconditional support. The country's leader, Viktor Orban, notes that the EU alone will not be able to provide full-fledged military assistance to Ukraine.

Negotiations between the USA and Ukraine

The question of the long-term viability of all these initiatives remains open. The current uncertainty may drag on, but it is unlikely that European countries are ready to completely replace the United States in the field of security. While London and its allies are trying to strengthen themselves, Washington admits the possibility of revising its policy towards Russia.

According to Bloomberg, the United States insists on softening the wording regarding Russia in the final communique of the G7 foreign ministers' meeting, which will be held from March 12 to March 14 in Canada. Thus, Ottawa's proposal to create a task force to counter the Russian shadow fleet was rejected, and instead of "sanctions" in the final document, it allegedly refers to limiting Russia's "revenue generation".

At the same time, negotiations between the United States and Ukraine will be held in Saudi Arabia. Earlier, negotiations between the United States and Russia led by Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov took place there. Washington's changing rhetoric will be an important factor in the discussions. After a public exchange between Trump and Zelensky at the White House on February 28, the deal on Ukrainian resources fell through, and the American president noted that the Ukrainian leader was not ready for peace and showed disrespect for the United States. On March 4, Zelensky said he regretted what had happened, although the White House insisted on an apology for what happened in the Oval Office.

"The main obstacle on the way to completing this deal, which is Trump's resolute refusal to provide Ukraine with US security guarantees, remains, and European officials openly admit that Europe cannot succeed without these guarantees," political scientist Eduard Lozansky, president of the American University in Moscow, told Izvestia.

That is why Europe is in no hurry to branch off from the United States. So, Starmer and Macron intend to accompany Zelensky on a new trip to Washington in order to improve relations between the leaders after the failed negotiations and still convince the Americans to work together. By the way, Trump said that he is still waiting for the signing of the deal with Ukraine. In addition, against the background of fierce criticism from European allies for his administration's contacts with Moscow, Trump said that he adheres to a tough position on Russia. However, the US president once again stressed that he has good relations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

OSCE Secretary General to visit Moscow for the first time since 2021

Meanwhile, OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioglu will arrive in Moscow soon, and for the first time since 2021. The organization, designed to mediate conflict resolution in Europe, has seriously discredited itself in recent years.

Greek diplomat Vasilios Bornovas previously stated that observers of the OSCE mission in Ukraine secretly transmitted to Kiev data on the positions of the LPR and DPR formations, after which these territories were shelled. In fact, this has called into question the OSCE's status as a neutral mediator.

The OSCE press service did not respond to a request from Izvestia about whether the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict would be discussed in contacts with the Russian side. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a briefing that the planned meeting would be devoted to discussing both current issues related to the Secretary General's mandate and competence, as well as the general state of affairs in the OSCE.

His upcoming visit to Russia looks like an attempt to restore contacts and discuss the future of an organization in crisis. However, Moscow is hardly ready to consider the OSCE as a reliable partner.