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The North Atlantic Misalliance: A split between the United States and Europe is brewing in NATO
Against the background of the European Union agreeing on a plan for the militarization of the bloc, Donald Trump allowed a change in US collective defense obligations towards NATO allies. The White House previously stated that if a European peacekeeping mission was sent to Ukraine, Article 5 of the alliance would not apply to them. At the same time, the United States insists on increasing the defense spending of NATO countries, considering them insufficient. The expert community states that the difference in the strategic attitudes of Europe and the new American administration indicates a clear crisis within the transatlantic bloc and really complicates the application of the notorious Article 5. About the future of NATO and Europe's attempts to ensure its own security — in the material of Izvestia.
Trump threatened to leave NATO allies without US help
The disunity between the United States and Europe on the issue of collective security is becoming more pronounced against the background of attempts by Washington and Moscow to achieve a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. On March 6, when EU leaders agreed in Brussels on an 800 billion euro plan to rearm the community, the American president told reporters that he would not defend NATO states "that do not pay."
European Union Leaders' Summit to discuss Ukraine and European Defense in Brussels, Belgium, March 6, 2025
Even during his first term as president, Trump called on the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance to spend 4% of their GDP on defense. When he took over the second term, he said that the states of the bloc should already allocate 5% for these purposes. Recall that in 2014, NATO members agreed to increase defense spending within ten years and reach the level of military budgets of 2% of GDP.
Currently, only eight countries have failed to achieve this indicator: Belgium, Spain, Italy, Canada, Luxembourg, Portugal, Slovenia and Croatia. The United States itself spends 3.38% of GDP on defense, while Greece, Latvia and Estonia also spend more than 3% on defense. Poland, which donates 4.12% of GDP to its defense capability, came closest to the goal set by Trump.
NATO recognizes that the combined GDP of the American allies in the alliance is almost equal to the GDP of the United States itself, while these countries spend less than half of what the United States gives on defense. The amount of defense spending by the United States is about two-thirds of the same spending by NATO as a whole. "This imbalance has persisted with varying success throughout the history of the alliance and became even more noticeable after the tragic events of September 11, 2001, after which the United States significantly increased its spending," the organization's website says.
Trump is unhappy with the status quo and expresses doubts about the effectiveness of the structure. "I know these guys very well. They are my friends. But if the United States had problems and we called them and said, for example, "France, we have problems," or turned to other countries that I won't mention, do you think they would come and protect us? They should do it, but I'm not sure about that," Trump said on March 6.
Following these statements, citing three current and former senior U.S. officials and one congressional representative, NBC News reported that President Donald Trump discussed with his aides changing the terms of U.S. participation in collective defense under Article 5 of the alliance.
Specifically, we are talking about giving preference in the framework of cooperation to those members of the alliance who spend a certain percentage of their GDP on defense.
The North Atlantic Alliance is going through a crisis
Without serious strategic agreement between Europeans and Americans, it is impossible to talk not only about automatism in the application of Article 5, but also about military planning and preparations implied by this article, says Dmitry Danilov, Head of the European Security Department at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at MGIMO.
— It would be strange to say that a clear crisis in Europe's relations with the United States would somehow magically not affect the main transatlantic organization. Now we are witnessing a NATO crisis. During his first term, Trump did a lot to legally provide a clearer picture of the possibilities and parameters of the implementation of article 5 on collective guarantees. New operational areas were included, including cyberspace and outer space. A classification of hybrid threats has also been undertaken, but the changing political landscape within transatlantic relations indicates that the work done is clearly insufficient," he tells Izvestia.
Indeed, the resumption of Washington's dialogue with Moscow, the Trump administration's unwillingness to consider Russia as the main threat to Europe, as openly stated by J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference, and, finally, the suspension of military assistance to Ukraine — all this forces the European allies of the United States to act impulsively and come up with initiatives that remain at the level of declarative statements..
This includes the intention to send European peacekeepers to Ukraine (despite the fact that such a scenario remains unacceptable for Russia), and the decision taken by the European Union to multiply defense spending. The culmination was Emmanuel Macron's statements about his intention to cover Europe with the French "nuclear umbrella."
If France's partners exchange the nuclear guarantees of the United States for some kind of nuclear guarantees from France, they will not provide themselves with protection, Dmitry Danilov explains.
— The French have clearly said that decisions will still be made only by France at the national level. That is, European states will share with France the risks associated with its nuclear programs, while they will not receive any significant guarantees from it," he said.
Washington ignores Europe's efforts to support Ukraine
In any case, Washington is pointedly distancing itself from Europe's efforts to support Ukraine at the moment. Trump, in particular, has repeatedly stressed that he does not object to the idea of deploying European peacekeepers in this country in the event of the end of hostilities, but the American contingent will not be there.
Moreover, the head of the US Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, explained that if the peacekeepers end up in Ukraine, it will be only as part of a non-NATO mission. According to him, in this case, article 5 of the charter of the alliance on collective defense will not apply to them. The United States also wants reliable oversight of the line of contact by the international community.
Trump's statements are provocative in order to force US allies to act in accordance with Washington's wishes, Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, explained to Izvestia.
The Europeans do not like being publicly belittled and interacting with the United States is not through diplomatic or military channels, but through public criticism from Trump. This is not about a NATO crisis, since the organization will not cease to exist, but rather about a showdown within the transatlantic family, the expert believes.
"After Trump, in any case, there will be a next administration that may have different approaches to NATO. At the moment, we see a crisis among Europeans who do not know how to show and emphasize their independence as an international actor," Sukhoverkhov concluded.
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