The mortgage market has reduced its growth dynamics and started to accumulate demand

The number of mortgage applications increased by a quarter compared to January, but the market is very far from reaching the level of 2024, according to data from the TYMY analytical center, which was reviewed by Izvestia on March 9. Analysts note that a long cooling period will lead to the accumulation of pent-up demand.

According to the study, in February 2025, the number of mortgage applications increased by 27.25% compared to January. In the segment of mortgages for ready—made housing, the month-on-month growth was 23.24%, in the segment of new buildings the dynamics is slightly higher - an increase of 29.36%. In January and February, the share of mortgages in the primary market in the total demand structure is about 70%, the share of mortgages for finished housing, respectively, is at the level of 30%. If we compare year-on-year (February 2025 to February 2024), the total number of mortgage applications decreased by 34.37%.

"In February, few people expected a significant recovery in the mortgage market, although this month usually already shows positive dynamics in comparison with the traditional January recession. So, in 2024, the increase in the number of mortgage applications in February compared to January was 50.6%. But for March and April 2025, most banks already have more optimistic forecasts, there are several prerequisites for this now," said Alexander Perevoznikov, head of Tymy.Realty.

Analysts recalled that from March 1, the Central Bank reduces the premiums to the risk coefficients for mortgage loans, the result will be an increase in the share of approvals for applications. In addition, a slight recovery is expected in lending for individual housing construction (IHS). There is no significant surge planned here, the new rules for financing construction through escrow accounts are still being tested by the market, and they will certainly limit the possibilities of buyers and lead to higher prices.

Payment visibility: The average mortgage cost dropped below 30% in early March

Why are housing loans getting cheaper and how will this affect the real estate market?

"In spring, the country market always comes to life naturally — the season for individual construction in most regions of Russia is not very long, so people try to resolve all issues as early as possible. Considering that benefits under the Family Mortgage program are still available for individual construction, the number of requests here is likely to grow," Perevoznikov added.

The expert stressed that in the current long period of slowdown in the mortgage market, it is worth seeing not only its cooling, but also another important aspect — unrealized demand, which accumulates throughout the period of reduced activity. And the longer it accumulates, the stronger the wave of activity will be after the easing of monetary policy.

"The need for buying, selling and exchanging real estate among the population does not disappear anywhere. People postpone the solution of the housing issue for better times, continuing to live in rented apartments, and they deposit money. When the rate returns to lower values, all of them will enter the market, and along with them, those who managed to take out a mortgage at a high rate will turn to banks for refinancing. We will also see a surge in demand from investors who decide to transfer funds from the deposit into a brick. The result will, of course, be a sharp increase in real estate prices," he concluded.

Earlier, on February 27, the head of Tymy.Realty, Alexander Perevoznikov, told Izvestia about the changes in March for those wishing to take out a mortgage. According to him, from the beginning of March 2025, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will reduce surcharges to mortgage risk ratios for banks. The changes will affect mortgage loans with a down payment of 20% for borrowers with a personal income tax (debt burden indicator) of up to 70%. After the mortgage market cooled in the second half of 2024 and the entry into force of the Mortgage Lending Standard on January 1, 2025, which protects the rights of borrowers, the regulator considered that monetary policy regarding mortgages could be slightly relaxed.