The ground is empty: how drought may affect harvests in 2025
Although forecasters have so far refrained from negative forecasts regarding dangerous aridity, some farms are paying attention to the lack of reserves of accumulated moisture in the soil. According to representatives of the agricultural sector, this year, corn, sunflower, sugar beet, rapeseed and soybeans may suffer from crisis weather conditions, in addition to wheat and barley. The Ministry of Agriculture has not yet commented on a possible drought, but it notes that the total sown area in 2025 is projected to be even higher than last year. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Divination on the water
No one is predicting radical changes in the winter harvest yet: much more may change during the spring. Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia, told Izvestia that a full–fledged forecast for the growing season will be published only at the end of March and will affect April - September.
Meanwhile, farms are already noticing a lack of stored moisture reserves in the soil, said Yulia Ogloblina, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Agrarian Issues. This situation is not particularly typical for the Central Federal District and develops due to the absence of snow cover throughout the winter.
The National Union of Agricultural Insurers of Russia (NSA) notes that the risk of a spring-summer drought persists this year, and a decrease in stored moisture reserves in the soil makes plants more vulnerable to the effects of adverse events during the season.
According to the NSA, crops that are typical for the Central Chernozem region and southern Russia may be affected this year.: In addition to wheat and barley, it also includes corn and sunflower seeds for grain, sugar beet, rapeseed, soybeans. However, it is too early to predict a catastrophe, says Korney Bizhdov, president of the Union of Agricultural Insurers.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has not yet commented on the threat of drought in general. At the same time, according to the head of the ministry Oksana Lut, this year the total sown area is projected to be higher than last year's — almost 84 million hectares, of which 55.8 million hectares are spring. It is planned to increase crops of oilseeds and fodder crops, sugar beet, vegetables and potatoes in the organized sector, the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia.
— Currently, the agro—industrial complex is systematically entering the stage of spring field work, — said Oksana Lut. - Spring sowing has already begun in the Republic of Crimea, 11.7 thousand hectares have been sown to date. Top dressing of winter crops has started in a number of regions.
The Minister pointed out that since the beginning of the year, the condition of crops has improved significantly: now 87% of winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition.
According to the organization "Popular Front. Analytics", the average expert forecast of the grain harvest for 2025 is about 120-125 million tons. Against the background of statistics from previous years, this is a fairly compact volume. At the same time, about 30% of the area under winter crops is in a difficult climatic situation due to the small amount of available moisture. This may also affect the vegetation, the organization anticipates.
"In the near future, agricultural producers will analyze the situation and make appropriate decisions on replanting to early—ripening varieties or "gray crops", oats and barley," an expert from the Popular Front told Izvestia. Analytics", member of the Public Council of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia Sergey Sokolov.
At the same time, the gross grain harvest in Russia, including food wheat, covers the needs of processors with a large margin, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation said on March 7. According to the Russian Union of Flour Milling and Cereal Enterprises, no more than 13 million tons of wheat are required per year for the production of all domestic flour, which is a multiple of the harvest harvested in 2024.
We'll see in the rain
Valery Dolgy-Trach, director of the All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology at Roshydromet, believes that it is currently possible to talk about the likelihood of drought only from the point of view of statistics, that is, the climatic recurrence and intensity of this event. In fact, the future situation largely depends on what the weather conditions will be in early spring in a particular area, the agrometeorologist noted.
At the same time, the National Union of Fruit and Vegetable Producers notes that, according to operational information, for example, from the Volgograd region, 400,000 out of 800,000 hectares of crops with poor development wintered practically without snow, and this is already causing concern to farmers.
"As for productive moisture reserves, it should be noted that soil freezing under crops is low in almost all soil and climatic zones of the Volgograd region, and good conditions are in place for the absorption of meltwater and precipitation," the Union of Fruit and Vegetable Producers says.
Today, according to the Union's estimates, the reserves of productive moisture under winter wheat crops in different zones range from 112 to 167 mm, which corresponds to satisfactory and good indicators.
Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (ICAR), says that so far the situation does not look like it is automatically leading to a decrease in yields. It is much more important for winter crops to evenly accumulate moisture reserves in the remaining months of the growing season, he adds. But if there is a drought, it will, of course, affect the harvest of all crops, the expert complains. It should also be borne in mind that, in addition to drought, the harvest of winter crops may suffer from a number of other adverse factors: the formation of an ice crust and evaporation, recurrent frosts, and others, the expert added.
A big country
"We have a large country, it includes many soil and climatic zones, which means that a drought in some regions may result in optimal or excessive moisture in others," says Dmitry Belov, head of the Marketing Department at August Company JSC. — So, Siberians who drowned in their fields in the past still remember the drought forecast for 2024 with a "kind word".
The expert noted that the crops most adapted to arid conditions are sorghum, chickpeas, lentils and millet. At the same time, abnormal weather conditions are critical for sugar beet, soybeans, corn, sunflower, and winter rapeseed. However, even irrigation will not save a crop such as potatoes from high temperatures, he stressed.
Belov explains that if moisture has not accumulated and there is not enough precipitation in spring, this can lead to poor germination, low plant density in the future and disruption of the phases of crop development.
Andrey Neduzhko, General Director of the Steppe agricultural holding, notes that a low level of productive moisture reserves in the spring period can lead to a shift in the development dates of early spring and winter crops. This, in turn, can negatively affect the final yield, the farmer worries. According to him, a possible drought may lead to a shortage of up to 50% for all agricultural crops grown in rain conditions.
Petr Korotchenko, Chairman of the Union of Agricultural Employers of the Stavropol Territory, notes that the urgent need to reduce the time of tillage, sowing, scheduled treatments, and harvesting is much more critical, which requires a high availability of personnel and equipment, the lack of which is exacerbated by the reduction in profitability of most major crops.
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