Duty hint: The tariff war between the US and China is gaining momentum

The main political event of the year, the so—called "two sessions", has begun in China. These are meetings of the People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People's Congress (NPC), which determine the country's course for the coming year and influence the global situation. Against this background, Beijing retaliated against the new US duties on March 4. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Trade duties between China and the USA

The "two sessions", which started in China from March 4 to 11, are annual meetings of two key bodies of China. These events play an important role in the political life of the country.

The National People's Congress is the Chinese parliament and the highest body of state power, established in 1954. Currently, the NPC has 2,980 members, and its chairman is Zhao Leji.

The NPC's powers include making amendments to the Constitution, the Criminal and Civil Codes, and approving key officials. The NPC is also involved in the adoption of plans for socio-economic development, the state budget and resolves issues of war and peace.

The CPPCC is an advisory body to the Chinese leadership. It unites representatives of the Communist Party of China (CPC), other parties, public organizations, trade unions, as well as businessmen from Hong Kong, Macau and Chinese diasporas abroad.

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The "two sessions" are always held in Beijing, at the People's Assembly House, and on a large scale. The event is attended by over 3,000 NPC deputies and about 2,000 NPC members. They summarize the results of last year and outline plans for the current one.

The country approached this event with good results: in 2024, China's economy grew by 5%, thanks to strong external demand and export growth. However, the situation is more complicated this year: domestic demand is weak, the real estate sector is in decline, and external pressure, especially from the United States, is increasing.

How much did the US increase duties for China

The current president of the United States, Donald Trump, even before coming to power, threatened to increase duties on Chinese exports. After returning to the White House, he raised them by 10% in February, and since March 4 he has added another 10%.

China has not remained in debt. On February 10, China's retaliatory duties on American goods came into force. In particular, Beijing imposed duties of 15% on American coal and gas, as well as 10% on oil, agricultural machinery and automobiles. In addition, the list of "unreliable" organizations includes the fashion giant PVH, which owns the brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, and the company Illumina, engaged in genetic testing.

This time, Beijing has also prepared countermeasures, which it announced on the first day of the "two sessions." China has added 15 American companies to the export control list: Leidos, Gibbs & Cox, IP Video Market Info, Sourcemap, Skydio, Rapid Flight, Red Six Solutions, Shield AI, HavocAI, Neros Technologies, Group W, Aerkomm, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Aero Vironment.

As explained in the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, they "pose a threat to China's national security and interests." Now they are prohibited from exporting dual-use goods.

In August 2024, the US administration added more than 40 Chinese companies to its export control list, including those who supplied machine tools and microelectronics to Russia. The United States accused them of supporting the Russian military-industrial complex.

Trump's tariff war: what consequences await the global economy

Since March 4, 2025, the United States has sharply increased duties on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.

The main task for China now is to stimulate domestic demand. This is the only way the country can maintain steady growth. Analysts believe that the GDP growth target for 2025 will remain at 5%, which will show the authorities' confidence in their abilities. To increase demand, the authorities can expand consumer support programs and increase social benefits, such as pensions and subsidies.

Against the background of economic issues, one of the most discussed topics of the "two sessions" was the proposal of CPPCC member Chen Songxi to lower the age of marriage to 18 in order to increase the birth rate. Now men can get married from the age of 22, and women can get married from 20.

However, this proposal was received rather coolly, given that the Chinese are increasingly postponing marriages and the birth of children due to the high costs of their upbringing. Despite the lifting of restrictions on the number of children, the birth rate continues to fall, and the population is aging, which creates serious economic challenges for the country.

China will act systematically

Vasily Kashin, Director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, told Izvestia that the current event in China is being held according to a standard program.

— In the early days, there is a set of news and reports about the Chinese budget for this year. This is followed by data on the military budget. Next, information about the macroeconomic forecast for the current year is revealed," the Sinologist noted.

According to the political scientist, towards the end of the "two sessions" a report on the work of the government is being made. It talks about current political challenges, but also to a large extent with an emphasis on the economy. At the same time, the report has both foreign policy and military-political sections.

He added that Beijing promptly announced retaliatory measures against US sanctions.

— This is not related to the "two sessions", it is an inevitable reaction to Trump's decision, which imposed ten percent tariffs on Chinese products, and then increased to 20%, — the expert emphasized.

He believes that the Chinese government should have taken this measure, because these are the rules of the game. According to the expert, these contradictions may escalate in the future, and the situation between the parties is asymmetric: it is easier for the Americans to beat the Chinese with tariffs, and the PRC has more limited opportunities for this, because Chinese exports to the United States exceed American exports to China several times, the analyst explained.

Kashin is confident that the Chinese will still have the opportunity to limit the export of strategically important types of goods for which China has a monopoly.

— They have already done this repeatedly with respect to rare earth metals and may repeat the same with respect to individual components. Industrial products and Chinese components are widely used in a number of industries, for example, in the production of goods for renewable energy," the political scientist said.

The expert also believes that there is another direction for China to strike — actions against American businesses operating inside China. We are talking about tens of thousands of companies that generate annual revenue of hundreds of billions of dollars.

— As far as I know, preparations for this scenario have been going on for a very long time, so there will be no impulsive actions. The Chinese undoubtedly have a well—thought-out plan for what they want to do in response to the US government's tariff measures," the expert warned.

The Sinologist added that the Chinese authorities do not make such decisions emotionally. They will calculate everything and act systematically.

Moscow can benefit from the situation

Director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies (RUSSTRAT) Elena Panina noted in its Telegram channel that China reacted instantly to the duties from the United States.

"What is happening is not the beginning of the tariff war, it is its logical development. The additional 10% duty on Chinese goods is in addition to the 10% duty imposed just a month ago. And all this is superimposed on the early 25% duties that Trump imposed in his first term as president," the expert explained.

The political scientist stressed that the administration of President Joseph Biden has not reduced them.

"It's quite typical: No matter who sits in the White House, it is difficult to reverse the course of competition with China. Moreover, under Biden, duties on Chinese semiconductors doubled, reaching 50%, and on Chinese electric vehicles increased fourfold, exceeding 100%," the expert said.

In her opinion, there are no positive results of the new tariff war yet. According to the results of Trump's first term, US farmers lost about $27 billion, which mostly went to Brazilian farmers who occupied an American niche in the Chinese market.

"Problems have already been identified with the American production itself, which depends on foreign components. So far, the only reliable forecast is that consumer goods will only become more expensive for all participants in this trade conflict," the analyst said.

In her opinion, Moscow can benefit from the current situation. "There is no reason why our country should not take advantage of the niches that will arise as a result of these trade battles. For example, the supply of our agricultural products to China may be increased," concluded Panina.