Former future: the acting head of the republic won in the second round in Abkhazia

The former acting President of Abkhazia, Badra Gunba, won the election of the head of the republic. He scored almost 57% of the votes cast for both candidates, while former Economy Minister Adgur Ardzinba scored 43.15%. The turnout that day exceeded 70%, surpassing the record result in the first round. More people voted at polling stations in the territory of the Russian Federation. Experts believe that Russia, regardless of the results of the vote, will remain Abkhazia's main partner. The two countries also have the potential to expand cooperation. On the contrary, it is not worth waiting for positive changes in relations between Sukhumi and Tbilisi. The second round of the presidential elections in the republic was described in the Izvestia article.

Results of the second round of elections in Abkhazia

Badra Gunba, who previously served as president, won almost 57% of the votes cast for the two candidates in the second round of the presidential elections in Abkhazia. His opponent Adgur Ardzinba received the support of 43% of voters. According to the law, the candidate who receives 50% plus one vote of the total number of ballots is considered the winner.

Recall that the second round of the presidential election was scheduled because on February 15 none of the candidates won the required number of votes. The leaders then were Badra Gunba, who scored 46.38% of the votes, and Adgur Ardzinba, who scored 36.92%.

The second round of elections was generally calm, although there were attempts at provocations. On the evening of March 1, an armed group broke into a polling station in the village of Tsandrypsh. According to the Prosecutor General's Office of Abkhazia, the attackers threatened members of the election commission and police officers, damaged the ballot box and fled. The head of the Central Election Commission of the republic, Dmitry Marshan, called the incident an attempt to destabilize the elections. When the attackers tried to detain Musser at the checkpoint, they opened fire. Two people were injured. In addition, the Investigative Committee of Russia has opened criminal cases, including under the article on terrorism, after the attacks on Russian citizens who also have Abkhaz citizenship on election day.

152 polling stations in 35 districts were opened in Abkhazia. There were also two sites abroad: in Moscow and Cherkessk. The turnout was more than 70%, and about 100,000 people voted, Dmitry Marshan said at a briefing. In the first round, 69% of voters came to the polling stations. Many people who wanted to take part in the vote turned out to be at polling stations in Russia: 1,839 people voted in Cherkessk, and 3,100 in Moscow, which is 15% more than the record of the first round. All these figures only emphasize the active civic position of the residents of the republic. At the same time, the elections were held as transparently as possible: more than 120 international observers from 35 countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America came to observe the voting process in the republic, the CEC reported.

The results of the second round did not come as a surprise for a number of reasons. Firstly, for Abkhazia, a fairly traditional society, winning the first round is of great importance. And secondly, Gunba's activity in the information space also influenced the final result, Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus Sector at IMEMO RAS, told Izvestia.

— Both candidates were not political heavyweights, they do not have long-term supporters, they are both young for Abkhaz politics, the expert said.

The early change of power in Abkhazia was the result of the protests and riots that broke out in November 2024. At the same time, the stability of the political course directly affects the development of the republic, which is why the citizens of the country decided to choose its future at the polling stations. In addition, the main desire of the majority of residents is to stay with Russia.

How will the elections affect Abkhazia's relations with its neighbors

Regardless of the election results, relations with Moscow will remain a priority for Sukhum. From the very beginning, Russia was involved in the process of resolving the conflict between Abkhazia and Georgia, and in 2008 recognized the independence of the republic. At the same time, a friendship agreement was signed, and in 2014— an agreement on alliance and strategic partnership. Russia not only ensures Abkhazia's security, but also remains its main trading partner — the Russian Federation accounts for over 77% of the republic's trade turnover.

Both sides are actively continuing to develop economic cooperation: new infrastructure projects are being created. For example, the reconstruction of Sukhumi airport and the increase in tourist flow to the republic were discussed during the visit to Abkhazia of the Russian delegation led by the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko in January. And on February 7, the airport hosted the first test flight from Moscow in more than 30 years. A full-fledged regular service between Russia and Abkhazia is expected to open in May.

This is very relevant now, given that Abkhazia is one of the most popular foreign destinations in the Russian Federation. The tourist flow is also growing: in 2024, about 1.5 million Russians visited the republic, in 2023 - 1.4 million. In addition, Moscow has allocated 10 billion rubles for the repair of the Adler checkpoint on the border of the Russian Federation and Abkhazia — now the capacity of the border checkpoint should increase by 9.5 times for transport and almost three times for those who cross the border on foot.

In February, it became known that Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov discussed financial assistance to the republic with Badra Gunba. The Russian Federation has allocated 343 million rubles to Abkhazia to pay salaries to doctors, teachers and law enforcement officers. In addition, Moscow is helping Abkhazia cope with energy shortages. Every year from November to April, the republic does not have enough electricity due to outdated networks and lack of its own capacities.

Against this background, the election results will not dramatically affect relations between the Russian Federation and Abkhazia, as they have been building for years. Russia is the guarantor of security and the main donor, so none of the leaders of Abkhazia will change anything. At the same time, it is possible to finalize cooperation and discuss additional agreements, including the completion of work on an investment document, Vadim Mukhanov emphasized.

On the contrary, Sukhumi's relations with Tbilisi are unlikely to change for the better. Earlier, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that the country plans to regain control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and become a member of the European Union in 2030. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Abkhazia called this statement populist and hopeless.

In the short term, even the slightest changes in relations between Sukhumi and Tbilisi are unlikely. In the coming years, we can only talk about informal contacts on energy issues, for example, the Ingura HPP. However, a transition to formal relations between Abkhazia and Georgia is extremely unlikely, the political scientist concluded.