Astronomer predicted meteor shower after asteroid collides with Moon

The collision of the asteroid 2024 YR4 with the Moon in 2032 may lead to an explosion with a capacity of 8 Mt, which will cause a meteor shower on Earth. About this on March 1 TASS was told by Leonid Elenin, an astronomer and researcher at the Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

According to the agency, according to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in early February, collision risks were estimated at 2.2%, later this figure increased to 3.1%, and after that the figure was adjusted to 0.28%. It is clarified that the European Space Agency (ESA) has also lowered its estimate of the probability of an asteroid colliding with Earth to 0.002%.

It is noted that a space object can fly past the Earth or collide with the Moon. However, the exact orbit of the asteroid will not be known until 2028.

"Indeed, the probability of a collision with the Moon is currently being considered in the region of 1%, but it is also decreasing. A collision with it can be dangerous for the Earth, because there will be a powerful explosion, an energy release with a capacity of about 8 Mt. The moon has no atmosphere and low gravity, so all the ejected debris may eventually fall on our planet," said Elenin.

At the same time, according to the astronomer, there is a third scenario, which implies the risk of an asteroid entering the Earth's atmosphere in 2032.

Elenin believes that, despite the fact that the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth has significantly decreased, it may increase again. According to him, this is due to the fact that the asteroid should soon disappear from the field of view of the telescopes. It will appear back only by 2028.

"The probability has dropped a lot now, but most likely, in a few years it will start to grow. In April, the object 2024 YR4 will leave the field of view of our telescopes, and we will see it only in 2028. Over these few years, uncertainty will increase, so perhaps in 2028 there will be a small spike in the probability of a collision. <..."I hope that the probability [of a collision] will drop to zero and we will exhale," said the scientist.

On February 7, NASA's website reported that the probability of a 2024 YR4 collision with Earth in 2032 doubled from 1%. After reports of a possible collision with an asteroid, China began to form href="https://iz.ru/1837267/2025-02-11/smi-uznali-o-sozdanii-knr-planetarnoi-oborony-iz-za-soobshchenii-ob-asteroide-2024-yr4 " target="_blank">planetary defense.