VTB CEO Kostin: the key rate will decrease to 19% in the second half of 2025

Inflation in Russia is approaching its peak, therefore, the key rate may decrease in the second half of 2025. This was announced on February 28 by the head of VTB Bank Andrey Kostin on the TV channel "Russia 24".

According to him, there will be no collapse in lending, but we should expect a slight decrease in retail lending and a slowdown in corporate lending.

The credit policy will remain quite strict in the near future, Kostin noted. He added that inflation is currently "approaching its peak" — forecasts for 2025 are 7-8%.

"There is every reason to hope that in the second half of the year — and certainly towards the end, in the fourth quarter — we can expect a rate cut. I think it's up to 19%, and maybe even a little lower," Kostin said.

The head of VTB also pointed to the likely systematic slowdown in economic processes. This will help to overcome inflation and reach the 4% target next year, he stressed.

Time to slow down: expected inflation fell for the first time since September

But there's still no victory over rising prices

The day before, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, noted that the current href="https://iz.ru/1845889/2025-02-27/nabiullina-nazvala-tekushchii-uroven-stavki-tcb-neobkhodimym-dlia-snizheniia-infliatcii " target="_blank">the key rate level of 21% is necessary to achieve the 4% inflation target. She admitted that there is now a reversal of factors affecting the value of inflation in the Russian Federation, in particular, the Bank of Russia sees the first signs of cooling in the labor market.