The head of VTB predicted a reduction in the key rate this year

Given that inflation in Russia is approaching its peak, a reduction in the key interest rate is possible in the second half of 2025. This was announced on February 28 by the head of VTB Bank Andrey Kostin on the TV channel "Russia 24".

Referring to the statements of the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, he noted that the credit policy will remain quite strict in the near future.

"We see positive aspects, such as a reduction in lending, and it seems that inflation is approaching its peak today. Currently, inflation forecasts for this year are 7-8%. It seems to me that there is every reason to hope that in the second half of the year — and certainly towards the end, in the fourth quarter — we can expect a rate cut," Kostin said.

According to the head of VTB, the key rate may decrease to 19%. Kostin expressed the opinion that there will be no collapse in lending. He predicted a slight decline in retail and a slowdown in corporate lending.

"Corporations have enough reserves. There are own profits that can be invested. We can see that in 2024 we had a good increase in investments. This gives us hope that we will continue many investment programs. There will be a systematic slowdown in the economy in order to overcome inflation and reach the target of 4% in 2026," Kostin stressed.

Time to slow down: expected inflation fell for the first time since September

But there's still no victory over rising prices

The day before, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, noted that the current href="https://iz.ru/1845889/2025-02-27/nabiullina-nazvala-tekushchii-uroven-stavki-tcb-neobkhodimym-dlia-snizheniia-infliatcii " target="_blank">the key rate level of 21% is necessary to achieve the 4% inflation target. She admitted that there is now a reversal of factors affecting the value of inflation in the Russian Federation, in particular, the Bank of Russia sees the first signs of cooling in the labor market.