Experts have predicted an increase in the number of bond issues from the industrial sector

The number of bond issues from the industrial sector in the Russian market may increase by 25% in 2025, analysts at Uniservice Capital believe. The experts conducted an industry study and examined how representatives of SMEs from the industrial sector feel about their role as issuers of bonds and shares. Izvestia got acquainted with the information on February 27.

Analysts said that over the past few years, the share of the real sector in the high-yield bond market has grown significantly. And if the VDO market as a whole has grown by almost 40% in value terms since 2021, then industry representatives have shown a more than twofold increase in the volume of issues in circulation. In 2024, 56 issues worth more than 20 billion rubles were traded on the market, while a few years ago the number of "industrialists" was at the level of 25 issues worth less than 10 billion rubles

Currently, issues of 32 issuers are in circulation.

"The total debt burden, including bank loans, exchange-traded bonds, private loans and other loans, exceeded 130 billion rubles in the first nine months of 2024, with almost 30% being short-term financing that requires repayment in the coming year. Of course, this does not mean that all existing issuers will refinance in 2025, but it is obvious that one of the tasks of companies in 2025 may be the desire to exit short—term funding," the experts added.

It is noted that the need for refinancing will be caused by the consequences of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Many companies have put new loans on the back burner, prioritizing servicing old debts. As explained, this is due to the fact that market participants attracted loans at floating rates. Since the regulator's rate has increased significantly, interest maintenance costs have shown a significant increase.

In addition, the company drew attention to the fact that it is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain preferential financing.

"Obviously, financing for enterprises in the industrial sector is a topical issue. Hence, in addition to the already well—known players in the bond market, the probability of debutants is quite high - participants will resort to using alternative sources of financing due to the flexibility and accessibility of this instrument. The only question is its correct and competent interpretation by the masses," the results of the study say.

It is emphasized that the sector needs both financing and refinancing. At the same time, representatives of the industry need to develop and support current investment projects and meet the increased demand from the government. Therefore, a 25% increase in the number of issues is quite realistic, analysts believe.

At the same time, experts said that the popularization of the equity capital market by the government led to a wave of new IPO issues (initial public offerings) in 2022-2024. At the same time, on the part of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and the stock exchange, there is a tightening of requirements for potential issuers based on the placements carried out.

"It will certainly be more difficult for new applicants to enter the market — the bar for an IPO increases with each new placement, but in conditions of high interest rates, companies, especially with large investment programs, are increasingly talking about plans for an IPO — even if not with as high an assessment as we would like, but with long—term capital that will allow for the implementation of plans and the growth of revenue and profit," the expert added.

They also drew attention to the fact that there are also accredited issuers in the IPO queue who want to reduce the percentage burden on their profits and free up resources for investments.

"But so far these are just plans and preparations: there will most likely be no more than two real deals by the end of the first quarter, and most likely they will not be industry representatives — for them, the discount on IPOs to market valuations looks high, taking into account the current rate — everyone is waiting for the start of the rate reduction cycle," — the analysts concluded.

Earlier, on December 26, 2024, Ruslan Spinka, director of Sales and customer service at Fontvielle investment company, told Izvestia that in Russia in 2025, large state-owned companies and companies with state participation could href="https://iz.ru/1813882/2024-12-26/ekspert-ne-isklucil-provedenia-ipo-krupnymi-goskompaniami-v-2025-godu " target="_blank">to conduct an initial public offering of shares. He stressed that the development of the IPO sector fits into the plan to increase the capitalization of the Russian stock market to 66% of GDP by 2030, since the growth in the number of large companies on the stock exchange and, in general, an increase in the number of new names available to investors is one of the most obvious ways to achieve the targets.