Gref announced the expectation of a reduction in the key rate in the second half of 2025

The key rate reduction cycle is expected in the second half of 2025. This was announced on February 27 by German Gref, Chairman of the Board of Sberbank, during a conference with analysts and investors following the publication of financial statements.

"We will see how the loan portfolio will grow. If it does not grow at the same rate as last year — and it has been falling for two months in a row — then in the second half of the year we will see a strong reduction in inflation. Accordingly, we expect a cycle of key rate cuts in the second half of 2025," he is quoted as saying.https://tass.ru /" target="_blank">TASS.

He clarified that it is necessary to monitor how the loan portfolio will grow. So, over the past two months, on the contrary, it has been falling, and if its volume does not start to increase as quickly as last year, then in the second half of the year we can expect a significant decrease in inflation, which will allow us to start reducing the key rate.

Time to slow down: expected inflation fell for the first time since September

But there's still no victory over rising prices

Earlier in the day, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the current key rate level is 21%. href="https://iz.ru/1845889/2025-02-27/nabiullina-nazvala-tekushchii-uroven-stavki-tcb-neobkhodimym-dlia-snizheniia-infliatcii">необходим to achieve the inflation target, which is 4%. At the same time, the regulator sees a reversal of factors that can affect inflation, for example, a cooling in the labor market.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation on February 14 retained the key rate at 21% per annum. It is specified that the Bank of Russia will assess the expediency of its increase at the next meeting on March 21.