Expert predicted the cost of Brent oil in spring 2025

This spring, the cost of Brent oil will be in the range of $70-80 per barrel, Capital Lab partner Evgeny Shatov believes. He told Izvestia on February 24.

According to the London Intercontinental Exchange ICE data, Brent costs around $74.68 per barrel.

"Forecasting the cost of Brent oil for the spring of 2025 is associated with high uncertainty due to many dynamic factors. The oil market in the baseline scenario will be balanced in the first half of the year due to the postponement of OPEC+ production growth from January to April 2025. In spring 2025, the price of Brent is likely to fluctuate in the range of $70-80 per barrel, but the risks of deviations remain high," Shatov said.

According to him, the market will remain sensitive to geopolitical shocks and macroeconomic data. The expert recommended investors and market participants to follow the actions of OPEC+, the dynamics of demand in Asia and the development of the situation around alternative energy.

"In February, the U.S. Department of Energy slightly raised its forecast for the cost of Brent oil in 2025 - to $74.5 per barrel from $74.31 per barrel, which follows from the report of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the ministry. The agency expects that the reduction in oil production by OPEC+ countries will lead to a reduction in global oil reserves and will keep quotations at the current level in the first half of the year," - said Shatov.

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The expert added that the gradual recovery of production planned since April by OPEC+ countries along with weak demand growth will increase global reserves in the second half of 2025 and in 2026, which will put downward pressure on the cost of oil.

"In the event of geopolitical escalation and supply instability, prices could rise significantly into the $100+ per barrel neighborhood. The main factors influencing the situation on the oil market remain the balance of demand (depends on the recovery of the economies of China and the European Union; GDP growth in India and Asian countries may support consumption) and supply (depends on OPEC+ actions to regulate production, the growth potential of shale oil in the US, the recovery of production in Venezuela and Iran in case of sanctions easing)," he explained.

In addition, geopolitics, economic trends, the pace of energy transition and climate policy, as well as technological advances in production, have an impact on the cost.

Shatov added that the main scenario assumes a balance between moderate demand and controlled supply from OPEC+ in the spring. At the same time, any supply disruption amid geopolitical changes could cause a price spike.

He also noted pressure from the energy transition.

"Long-term oil contracts may become less attractive, but the market will not yet face a radical decline in demand," Shatov concluded.

Earlier, on February 3, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that the situation on the global oil market is stable. Demand is growing, and at the end of last year it increased by about 1.5 million barrels.