Ukraine and the U.S. are discussing a mineral deal. Parsing

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanyshyna has announced that Ukraine and the USA are in the final stage of negotiations on a rare-earth minerals deal. The dispute over the agreement has led to a cooling in US-Ukrainian relations and a public spat between the two heads of state, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky. What is the deal and whether it will end the conflict in Ukraine - in the material "Izvestia".

How Ukraine and the United States discuss metal supplies

- In early February, US President Donald Trump said that he wanted to make a deal with Ukraine, under which weapons and financial aid to Kiev would be provided in exchange for rare-earth metals and various minerals (we told you more about Ukraine's resources here). Later, the head of the White House announced the volume of the proposed deal - it should amount to $500 billion. He said that he wanted to return the funds that had already been spent by the US on Ukraine.

- Initially, Zelensky took a positive attitude to the idea of providing mineral resources to the USA. The discussion of the first version of the agreement took place when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bennett came to Kiev on February 12. Its draft stated that the USA would receive 50 percent of revenues from the extraction of Ukrainian resources (including oil and gas) and 50 percent of the financial value of new licenses for the development of deposits. A joint investment fund would be set up, and the US would have a priority right to buy export minerals.

- Although Zelensky promised to reach an agreement as soon as possible, he eventually refused to sign such an agreement, citing the lack of security guarantees spelled out in it. This caused displeasure on the part of Trump, who criticized the Ukrainian president and a few days later publicly stated his extremely low ratings.

- Soon a new draft agreement was drawn up, which the parties began to discuss. The media published various terms of the deal, but agreed that the new version was even tougher. At the moment, the draft agreement stipulates that the U.S. will own 100% of the future investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine, which will receive 50% of the revenues from Ukrainian resources. Although it is envisioned that the U.S. will also contribute its share at a 1:2 ratio (i.e., Kiev must contribute twice as much as the U.S. provides in aid to Ukraine), it will actually already be offset in the form of weapons delivered. The size of the fund is still $500 billion. The United States, in turn, intends to provide long-term financial commitments under the fund.

- The new version of the agreement was not immediately rejected by Ukraine. Although Zelensky expressed displeasure that the debt would be repaid by 10 generations of Ukrainians and tried to deny the debt out loud, other officials said the negotiations were underway and nearing their conclusion. In addition to Stefanyshyna, Ruslan Stefanchuk, speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, also announced the final stage of the negotiations. According to Bloomberg, the US pledges to support a "free, sovereign and secure" Ukraine, but specific guarantees are not spelled out in the agreement.

What the U.S. is seeking from Ukraine

- Both variants show that the deal will in any case be concluded in the interests of the US. The American side will be able to independently control production on the territory of Ukraine and return the assistance they have provided since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. At the same time, the American negotiators set a condition that the debt will be returned in a larger amount than the United States spent - American aid is estimated by the Ukrainian side at about $100 billion, and Trump's demands exceed it five times. The true amount of the costs is not yet known: Trump intends to conduct an audit to find out.

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- The US intentionally does not include any security guarantees in the deal. For the Trump administration, this agreement is not a comprehensive document regulating all areas of interaction with Ukraine, but is aimed solely at ensuring the economic interests of the United States. It is not favorable and not necessary for Trump to conclude one general agreement that would spell out security guarantees and parameters of arms deliveries mixed with economic issues. As a businessman, he wants to negotiate several agreements separately that are not tied to each other so that he has more room to maneuver.

- Trump's approach demonstrates how much the U.S. has changed its stance on both Ukraine's leadership and its perception of Ukraine as a state in general. The White House is applying completely new tools and methods to influence Kiev that were unthinkable under the previous administration. It remains an open question whether the new U.S. policy, within the framework of which the mineral deal is concluded, will have an impact on the course of the conflict, but this is how Washington sees the search for ways to end it.

What's preventing a deal from getting done

- At the moment, it is Ukraine that is refusing to make a deal. Kiev is already wary of the United States, especially after Trump's public accusations against Zelensky. The Ukrainian leadership believes that the United States intends to withdraw from the peacekeeping process, and the negotiations on minerals are being conducted in order to somehow reimburse its expenses for the past three years. Zelensky's relations with Trump have not developed since the first term of the American president, and in this regard, Kiev does not expect Washington to honor the agreements made.

- Experts note that there is a reason in this assumption and the US is not necessarily pursuing only economic goals in trying to impose a deal on Ukraine. Trump wants to end for the US the whole story related to the Ukrainian crisis, which is so costly for American taxpayers. However, he is not ready to simply give up everything, thus showing weakness. Instead, he is setting conditions that will not be accepted a priori in order to have a reason to withdraw.

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Trump has demanded compensation. But what can he really get?

- Both sides, realizing the futility of the deal, are trying to force each other to give it up by making the interlocutor look bad. It is for this reason that Trump is talking about reimbursement of an unaffordable amount of $500 billion for Ukraine, although US aid was provided in smaller amounts, and Zelensky is demanding impossible security guarantees. The deal is also hindered by the fact that most of the resources Ukraine and the US are talking about are concentrated in the territory occupied by Russian troops and cannot be seriously discussed at all.

In preparing the material, Izvestia spoke to and took into account the opinions of:

• political scientist, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Denis Denisov
• Konstantin Blokhin, political scientist, leading researcher of the Center for Security Problems Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, lecturer of the Russian Society "Znanie".