Tired of Scholz: How Berlin's politics will change after the German elections

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats suffered a crushing defeat in early parliamentary elections in Germany on February 23, gaining, according to preliminary data, only about 16% of the vote. They were surpassed by the right-wing Alternative for Germany party with 20%, which became the second strongest political force in the country. The Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) led by Friedrich Merz - now the main contender for the post of chancellor - won the election with about 30%. He will also have to form a new ruling coalition. The expert community does not rule out that as chancellor the politician will try to find common ground with Washington and will build a dialog with Moscow, taking into account the interests of businesses suffering from anti-Russian sanctions. On the past elections in Germany and their significance - in the material "Izvestia".

How the elections to the Bundestag took place in Germany

On Sunday, February 23, Germany held early elections to the lower house of parliament - the Bundestag. The final turnout amounted to a record 83%. As expected, according to preliminary results, the opposition CDU/CSU bloc won the election, gaining almost 30% of the votes. The Social Democratic Party of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz showed the worst ever result, receiving just over 16%. In three and a half years, the SPD has lost more than 9% of support. Scholz has already congratulated the head of the CDU Friedrich Merz with the victory and wished him luck in forming a new government.

The main question on the minds of many observers is what the next governing coalition will look like. According to exit polls, the Alternative for Germany came second in the election. It was supported by about 20% of voters, which was an absolute record for the AdG. This result has already given party leader and candidate for chancellor Alice Weidel reason to declare that her goal in the next election will be to overtake the CDU.

Next are the Union 90/Greens, which practically did not change their result: they received about 12% (14.8% in 2021). The Left has noticeably improved its position, gaining about 8.7%. It is not clear whether the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the new party "Sarah Wagenknecht Union" (SSV) will be able to enter the parliament: both political forces got about 5% of the votes. The FDP has already announced that if it succeeds in getting into the Bundestag, it expects to enter into a coalition with the SPD.

Going into the election, many voters had big doubts about the workings of the future ruling coalition.

- It doesn't matter which parties will be in government. They all always promise before elections and then fail to deliver. The previous government did that too. So now I did not vote for the major parties, - said "Izvestia" local resident Gerd.

Recall, the reason for early elections was the loss of confidence of the government of Olaf Scholz by the Parliament in mid-December last year. Then the majority of deputies voted in favor of dissolving the Bundestag and holding elections. As a result, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier resigned the government on December 27 and scheduled new elections. The cause of the political crisis was a split in the ruling "traffic light coalition", which could not come to an agreement on budget measures for 2025.

- I think the CDU will have the best chance of nominating a chancellor, and I hope that the decisions of the future government will be better than those of the last three years," Frank, a resident of Germany, told Izvestia.

What the composition of the new coalition may be

Even before the elections, many analysts considered the formation of a new "grand coalition" consisting of the CDU/CSU and SPD to be the most comfortable scenario for Berlin. Such an alliance has been formed at least three times in the 21st century, led by former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years. However, the SPD has now received too few votes, so the two popular parties will have to find a third partner. It is possible that it could be the Greens, who have been in power since 2021. However, the expert community believes that such a prospect is unlikely.

- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, headed by Analena Berbok, and the Ministry of Economy and Climate Protection, headed by Robert Habeck, have shown highly contradictory results. It is unlikely that the same Christian Democrats, for example, will be ready to take these reputational risks and work together with this party," Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Center for European Studies of the IMI MGIMO, told Izvestia.

Formally, the CDU/CSU could form a governing coalition with the AdG. Then the government would have the support of about 337 deputies of the Bundestag with the necessary minimum of 316. However, such an alliance seems impossible. Since the end of January, protests against the Christian Democrats' cooperation with the AdG have not subsided in Germany. Last month, the Bundestag, thanks to the "Alternative for Germany", approved a resolution proposed by the CDU/CSU faction and aimed at tightening the country's migration policy. The AdG has made no secret of its desire to cooperate with the CDU. Alice Weidel said that the party is open to coalition talks with the Christian Democrats and "will agree to reasonable proposals from the CDU." At the same time, Friedrich Merz also spoke out earlier against forming a government with the AdG.

How Germany's foreign policy may change

It is not excluded that the coalition negotiations and the formation of a new government may take several months. Until then, Olaf Scholz will continue to lead the country. Meanwhile, the coming to power of Friedrich Merz promises a softening of the EU sanctions policy.

- Although Merz was formed within the transatlantic paradigm, nevertheless, as a person who built his career surrounded by key representatives of the German economy, he understands the interests of German business and sees how industrial companies suffer from anti-Russian sanctions and especially from the rupture of German-Russian relations in the energy sector. In this sense, we cannot rule out any progress in this area," says Artem Sokolov.

Friedrich Merz's first task as chancellor will be to build working contacts with the new American administration. By the way, Donald Trump congratulated the conservatives on their election victory, saying that Germans are tired of a policy devoid of common sense.

- Merz will try to reconfigure the transatlantic relationship so that what Germany is willing to give is in line with Trump's requests. As a lawyer, Merz has worked for big German business and worked alongside American business, and so will try to find common ground with Trump. Both know how to make deals and are somewhat similar in that sense. He will build a policy within the framework of a common transatlantic vector, and it is easier to clarify this vector when meeting with Trump in person," believes Artem Sokolov.

At the same time, it is still unknown whether Berlin's position on the amount of military aid to Ukraine and the need to restore political contacts with Russia will change. Ahead of the election, a CDU source told Izvestia that the party was studying the issue of sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. The interlocutor admitted that this is a measure that serves more as a symbol and is not capable of changing the situation on the battlefield. Friedrich Merz himself said earlier that if he wins the election, he will decide on the delivery of long-range missiles to Kiev in coordination with European partners.