Peace, but settlement: when a breakthrough in Russia-U.S. talks on Ukraine is possible

As a result of the negotiation process, Russia and the United States will undoubtedly conclude agreements on issues of mutual interest. However, Moscow and Washington now have completely different priorities, Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. At the end of the week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on February 23, negotiations on "irritants" in bilateral relations are expected. At the same time, against the backdrop of the resumption of dialog between Moscow and Washington, European countries are clearly taking a course to tighten anti-Russian sanctions and actually hinder a peaceful settlement. However, the EU has no unified decision both on further sanctions policy and on sending armed forces to Ukraine. What to expect from the coming week in terms of the settlement of the crisis in Ukraine, taking into account the statements from the US, Russia and the EU, - in the material of "Izvestia".

The negotiation process between Moscow and Washington

While positively assessing the talks held in Riyadh with representatives of the Trump administration, Moscow is nevertheless in no hurry to reveal the exact schedule of future meetings. Thus, contrary to Donald Trump's announcement about the upcoming new round of talks on February 25, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that no meeting is scheduled for that day. According to the diplomat, talks between Russia and the United States "on irritants in bilateral relations" will be held at the end of next week. It is expected that the meeting will be held at the level of heads of departments of foreign policy agencies.

At the same time, White House press secretary Carolyn Levitt noted that Trump's team is now focused on continuing negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict, and the American president is confident that this can be achieved as early as this week. The Kremlin also views the renewed negotiation process with the US with guarded optimism.

"Here the dialog is going on between two really outstanding presidents. This is promising. It is important that nothing interferes with the realization of their political will," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 23.

For obvious reasons, the world community's attention is focused precisely on possible Russian-American agreements on Ukraine. However, Moscow emphasizes that the parties are primarily engaged in the development and deepening of dialogue on bilateral issues, and the problems of the Ukrainian crisis are being solved in parallel. As Russian President Vladimir Putin explained earlier, at the meeting in Riyadh on February 18, in addition to Ukraine, the parties discussed many issues, including the economy, energy, space and the Middle East. In addition, Russia and the United States also touched upon possible cooperation in the framework of energy projects in the Arctic.

Both sides are now addressing specific issues rather than demagoguery, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, explained to Izvestia. The politician is confident that the negotiation process will result in bilateral agreements on issues of mutual interest to the two states.

- This will undoubtedly follow at some later stage, but now there are completely different priorities," he said.

One such priority for both sides remains the restoration of mutually beneficial trade and investment cooperation. Thus, at the talks in Riyadh, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev pointed out that financial losses of American companies as a result of withdrawal from the Russian market exceed $300 billion. On February 23, Dmitriev was appointed Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, retaining the position of the head of RDIF. In his new capacity, he will continue to develop investment and economic cooperation with both the countries of the Global South and Western countries, including the United States.

As for Ukraine, on February 23, special envoy of the U.S. President Stephen Whitkoff pointed to the progress in the conflict settlement. According to him, the draft Istanbul agreements of 2022 could be used as a basis. At the same time, there is an increase in political tension between the USA and Ukraine both on the issue of peace and further military assistance.

- At the moment, we should not get euphoric and realize that we are only at the beginning of a difficult and thorny path to peace, as the war parties in both the United States and Europe are still very strong," Eduard Lozansky, a political scientist and president of the American University in Moscow, told Izvestia. - Nevertheless, at the U.S.-Russian meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which took place after the Munich Security Conference, even The New York Times was forced to admit that the United States and Russia had moved toward a dizzying reset, agreeing to work together to end hostilities in Ukraine, make financial investments and restore normal relations.

Indeed, the criticism of U.S. Vice President Jay Dee Vance at the Munich Security Conference and Trump's pragmatic approach in demanding that Vladimir Zelensky sign agreements for the states' use of Ukraine's minerals came as a surprise to Europeans. On February 23, Zelensky confirmed that Washington wants Kiev to return $500 billion in minerals. "This will be paid by 10 generations of Ukrainians. I am not signing this," he stated. Meanwhile, US presidential special envoy Steven Whitkoff has already said a rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine could be signed this week.

Europe tries to take a seat at the negotiating table

Europe is actively trying to intervene in the renewed negotiation process between Moscow and Washington. At the initiative of French President Emmanuel Macron, Kiev's European allies met in Paris on February 17 and 19 to discuss their possible role in a future settlement. Both meetings showed the disunity of the Europeans - for example, on the issue of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. While London and Paris declared their readiness to participate in a future mission after the deal is signed, Poland, for example, ruled out such a scenario. And there was no one from Hungary and Slovakia in Paris: Budapest and Bratislava emphasized that they did not want to participate in the meetings of "friends of war". Bulgaria's parliament, by a majority vote, also restricted the possibility of participation of national troops in the fighting in Ukraine.

- There is no full solidarity in Europe. Macron called an emergency summit of European leaders in Paris to discuss what to do, given that they can no longer rely on the support of the United States," said Eduard Lozansky.

The efforts of the Europeans do not end here. The same Macron is expected to visit Washington on February 24, and the next day British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will arrive in the American capital. The head of the Fifth Republic said he is ready to say to the American vis-a-vis: "You cannot be weak in the face of Putin... It is not in your interests." Keir Starmer, according to The Wall Street Journal, wants to present Trump with a draft plan to deploy British and French peacekeepers in Ukraine, but is unlikely to make a "specific request" for U.S. assistance. According to the publication, Paris and London are considering sending up to 30,000 peacekeepers to Ukraine. Russia has a negative attitude to the idea of deploying a European contingent in Ukraine, considering it a step towards escalation of the conflict.

Given that Russia and the United States have already made some progress, the UK is unlikely to want to lag behind the general trend and in any case will want to contribute to the process, said Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the IMEMO Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences and associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

- If France can insist on a special vision of the situation, the UK will be the first to join the American position. Of course, Europe is offended that Trump did not take into account its position on Ukraine, and it will try to insist on its own, using it in trade disputes with the United States. "If suddenly the Europeans do not stand up to the US position, it will be a cardinal upheaval in transatlantic relations," he said in a conversation with Izvestia.

At the same time, the EU is increasing sanctions pressure on Russia, trying to bargain for more favorable negotiating positions for Kiev. Thus, on February 24, the EU countries may approve the 16th package of restrictions. On the same day, the UK intends to announce the largest package of anti-Russian restrictions in three years.

According to Bloomberg, the EU is simultaneously negotiating the provision of €20 billion in military aid to Ukraine. And this is being done against the backdrop of Trump's desire to reach a quick peace agreement with Russia. Recently, for example, Lithuania and Estonia announced new supplies of ammunition to Kiev.

It is possible that the Europeans will seek to show their commitment to the policy of support for Ukraine, which they have demonstrated over the past years and which they cannot abandon without losing face. In this regard, it is telling that German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock, amid Trump's harsh remarks about Zelensky, threatened the US with severing ties. "We will increase the pressure on the Americans to realize that they have as much as possible to lose if they stop supporting the liberal democracies of Europe," she said on February 21. However, it is not quite clear how Germany's position will change after the early parliamentary elections held on February 23. According to preliminary results, the CDU party headed by Friedrich Merz won the elections.