"The figure for global defense spending will increase even more"
Increasing defense spending to 3% may take European NATO countries at least four years, Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm Institute for Peace Research (SIPRI), told Izvestia. Alliance members may decide to increase defense spending, but for the sake of growing military budgets, they will likely be forced to raise taxes. However, it is unlikely that European NATO countries will accept Donald Trump's demands to increase spending by up to 5%, the expert emphasized. At the same time, SIPRI believes that in 2024, military spending in the world has already increased to a record high, with the main growth coming from the United States, Europe, Russia and China.
Will European NATO countries increase defense spending?
The Stockholm Institute for Peace Research (SIPRI) estimates that global defense spending increased by 6.8% to a record $2.4 trillion in 2023. SIPRI director Dan Smith believes the numbers increased last year as well, with the largest increases likely coming from the United States, Russia, China and European countries.
- This is the highest level on record. We expect that when we collect data for 2024, it's likely that the [global defense spending] figure will increase even more, but I don't know by how much. Most of that increase will be concentrated in Europe, Russia, China and the United States," Dan Smith told Izvestia. - China has increased its military spending every year for the last 28 years, it has been the most consistent. Russia and most European countries have been up and down in the ranking, but the last decade has seen an upward trend.
By the way, at the end of 2024, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that the level of spending on national defense reached 6.3% of GDP. NATO countries are also increasing military spending, although at least eight of the 32 members of the alliance have failed to reach the 2% of GDP mark that they agreed on back in 2014. Despite this, the White House is demanding that the allies raise the contribution to 5% of GDP. In Brussels, however, the most realistic scenario is an agreement on a 3% target. Dan Smith admits that NATO countries will probably be able to reach an agreement on this figure.
- I think it is possible. There is a lot of pressure on European NATO countries to set higher spending amounts. President Trump has said he wants 5%. I think it is unlikely that the European member states will agree to that. I think Canada is also unlikely to do that. But they may decide to agree to 3%. The decision will be made at the summit in The Hague in June," he said.
NATO members will manage to increase defense spending if they make "serious decisions," the SIPRI director said. They need to understand what they want to spend this amount of resources on and how to finance it - it is unlikely to be done through economic growth, so they will have to either raise taxes or cut spending on other government functions, the expert says.
- If they decide to increase taxation, yes, they can do it without losses for their social sector," he says. - The other option, or the other main way to increase military spending, is economic growth. But now it is very limited in most European countries.
Dan Smith thinks that, in general, we shouldn't expect countries that are not involved in hostilities to increase their spending very quickly.
- So I think an increase from, say, 2.2% or 2.3% to 3% of GDP will take at least four years," he believes.
It is worth noting that during this period, Moscow can also increase its military expenditures even more and significantly modernize its military-industrial complex. The Russian Federation has already made serious technical changes during the NWO. It is worth paying attention to the drones "Key", "Strela", "Gadfly", "Ghoul" and "Osoed". Russian troops successfully tested the Pantsir-SM-SV anti-aircraft missile-cannon system. With its help, the Russian Armed Forces defeat drones and missiles, including HIMARS, ATACMS and Storm Shadow. Of course, it is impossible not to mention such missile systems as Avangard and Oreshnik. Last November, the Russian armed forces successfully tested Oreshnik on Ukrainian territory. The decision was made in response to strikes on the territory of the Bryansk and Kursk regions by Western-made missiles.
According to Dan Smith, on the one hand, we can expect that the biggest beneficiary of increased defense spending in NATO will be the United States, since they are the world's largest arms manufacturer. But they also have their own budgetary plans and significant needs to buy their own weapons.
- This gives an opportunity to think about European arms manufacturers and other countries. For example, South Korea has increased its arms exports quite significantly over the last two or three years, and it can continue to do so," the SIPRI director noted.
Resolution of the Ukrainian conflict and Europe's role
The discussion on increasing military spending in the alliance is taking place against the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 18 in Riyadh, representatives of Russia and the United States held major bilateral talks for the first time in three years. Both sides assessed them positively. The agenda includes the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.
After the start of the negotiation process, the head of the White House began to actively criticize the Ukrainian leadership, especially Volodymyr Zelensky. The US warned about the unacceptability of statements from Kiev to Donald Trump. European politicians already fear that the new American administration may ignore the interests of Europe and Ukraine in the negotiations. That said, it is still unclear what EU leaders actually think about the possibility of a ceasefire this year.
- I think they are very cautiously considering all options and not revealing exactly what they expect. One of the problems with these kinds of situations is that if you voice your expectations, you can increase the likelihood of it happening," Dan Smith observed. - European politicians and leaders are currently remaining silent. They talk about principles, about international law, about restoring Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. What they actually think is realistic and pragmatic is another question, but they are keeping it quiet.
Despite the intensified dialog on the Ukrainian settlement between Moscow and Washington, the roles of Ukraine itself and Europe in the negotiation process are not yet clear. At the same time, on February 19, Vladimir Putin confirmed: Washington assumes that the negotiation process will take place with the participation of both Russia and Ukraine. "No one excludes Ukraine from this process," the Russian leader noted.
One of the options for European countries to participate in the settlement of the conflict is to send their armed forces to Ukraine. However, there is no unity on this issue in Europe now. Earlier, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and a number of other European states clearly stated their refusal to send troops. At the legislative level, the Bulgarian parliament has also prohibited this. According to The Wall Street Journal, the British and French governments are considering sending up to 30,000 peacekeepers to Ukraine.
However, Dan Smith believes that it is unlikely that Western countries will send their troops anywhere before an agreement is reached.
- Regardless of what this agreement will consist of, Ukraine will certainly want security guarantees," the analyst said. - There are two possible forms it could take. One is for Ukraine to become a NATO member, and the other is for Western European forces to be based on its territory to monitor the ceasefire. So I think it is quite possible that they will appear after an agreement is reached.
At the same time, Russia does not welcome and has a negative attitude to the introduction of a European peacekeeping contingent on the territory of Ukraine. Moscow perceives such actions as a step towards escalation of the conflict. Thus, while the positions of the parties are far from compromise - Dan Smith does not rule out that the Ukrainian conflict may last until the end of this year.
- It is most likely to continue through 2025," the analyst believes. - I think at some point the level and intensity of the war will probably decrease. I think the really frightening prospect is the possibility that the war will continue for a long time: sometimes more brutally, sometimes less brutally. I would hesitate to make any predictions, but I don't think it's over.
However, it is possible that peace agreements on Ukraine may be reached in the coming months. On February 23, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that negotiations between Russia and the United States - particularly on "irritants" in bilateral relations - would take place at the end of the coming week. He specified that the meeting would be held at the level of directors of foreign policy departments.
Special envoy of the US president Stephen Whitkoff said that the draft Istanbul agreements of 2022 could be used as a basis for the Ukrainian settlement and that a peace deal could be reached "rather quickly".
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