Who will be affected by the consequences of Ukraine's attack on the CPC. Analysis

Ukraine has carried out a drone attack on an oil pumping station in Krasnodar Region, which supplies oil from Kazakhstan to Europe. The facility belongs to a number of companies, including US and EU oil corporations. At the same time, these same countries provide Ukraine with military support and help target drones at facilities in Russia. Why Ukraine made such an attack and how it will affect oil quotations - in the material of "Izvestia".

What happened to the CPC facility

- On February 17, the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station (OPS) of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) was attacked by seven Ukrainian drones filled with destructive elements. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed responsibility for the attack.

- No personnel were injured in the attack on the oil refinery, and the workers managed to prevent an oil spill. However, the station itself was damaged and was taken out of service. Its roof was destroyed, a closed switchgear, a gas turbine unit, cables and a cable rack, a water tank, two transformers, filters and a fire extinguishing system were damaged.

- The Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station is a facility of the international oil transportation company CPC, which pumps oil from western Kazakhstan to the marine terminal in Novorossiysk. From there, oil is delivered to world markets, including Europe. The consortium includes Kazakh companies as well as Russian, American and European companies.

Hello in 40 years: will the US succeed in crashing oil prices

Trump is unsuccessfully trying to pressure Riyadh like Reagan did previously

- Currently, oil transportation is carried out via an emergency route. According to Transneft, which owns a stake in CPC, it will take up to two months to eliminate the consequences of the attack. Reduction of oil supplies from Kazakhstan may reach 30%. Kazakhstan estimated the damage from the attack at 300 billion tenge (almost $600 million).

How the attack on the CPC will affect oil prices

- So far, the attack on Kropotkinskaya has not caused any noticeable fluctuations in oil prices, as the shipment in Novorossiysk has not changed. Along the CPC there are pumping balancing tanks, which are usually filled during bad weather conditions at sea. Thanks to pumping from the tanks, the supply volume will be maintained for some time.

- However, in the next few days we should still expect a price hike, as the 30% reduction in the CPC throughput capacity is quite a significant factor. The jump will be felt by consumers, primarily in Europe, and traders, who will start to play for an increase, driving up the price further. Although the increase will not be strong on the global average, it will be tangible for Europe. European countries refused from Russian oil in favor of Kazakh oil and now will bear all the risks associated with the reduction of the CPC throughput capacity. The losses will have to be compensated by purchases from Saudi Arabia, India or the United States, which have a longer logistical shoulder.

- The nearest ceiling that oil prices can break through is $80 per barrel (as of February 21, Brent crude costs $75.5). The cost will go higher if other factors affecting the oil market occur. Such risks include, for example, Trump's pressure on Iran, which he promised to do in early February.

What role Europe and the US played in the attack

- Shortly after the attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that Ukraine could not have carried out the attack alone. It needed intelligence to do so, and it was provided by Western countries. In this regard, experts are surprised that an international consortium, whose shareholders are companies from Europe and the United States, was chosen for the sabotage.

- So far, the question remains open as to whose military assistance was used to target the drones at Kropotkinskaya. From this depends on what specific goals were pursued in organizing the attack. If the intelligence was received from the United States, the logic was to create an oil shortage and increase the supply of American hydrocarbons to the European market, even if the price of oil rises and hits the wallet of American buyers. However, against this version is the fact that Trump opposes the price increase.

- If the raid was facilitated by the military structures of European countries, it lacks any economic logic. Europe needs Kazakh oil, and it is not profitable for it to deprive itself of supplies. However, the sanctions policy of the European Union often demonstrates inconsistency, as evidenced by the refusal from Russian gas or attempts to ban oil supplies to India, from where it reaches Europe anyway.

- Since the CPC facilities are owned not only by Russia, but also by the American companies Chevron and Mobil, it can be assumed that the involvement of European intelligence could have been provoked by the recent deterioration of relations between the European Union and the United States. But experts are not inclined to believe that the Europeans intend to directly harm U.S. President Donald Trump and move to hostilities. Besides, Kropotkinskaya is perceived as a Russian critical infrastructure facility, not an American one.

Can Ukraine be held accountable

- Critical facilities such as oil pumping stations are usually well insured, so the CPC will need to be reimbursed promptly. If the insurance does not cover the full amount of losses, it is possible that the company could sue Ukraine in international arbitration. However, consideration of claims against Kiev in the current conditions will have a political coloring. The outcome of the process will depend on whether European countries, following the US, will mend relations with Russia and seek economic co-optation in the coming months.

Protracted ceiling: G7 split over oil sanctions against Russian Federation

Will the G7 countries agree to tighten price restrictions on Russian fuel?

- Experts are cautiously assessing the probability that Kazakhstan will also file a lawsuit against Ukraine. The country will take such a step after appropriate consultations with the U.S., as it can now have a direct impact on the Trump administration's attempts to achieve a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. In addition, Kazakhstan needs the support of Europe, which is now firmly on the side of Ukraine. A more likely scenario is that Kazakhstan would prefer to remain neutral rather than quarrel with its European partners.

- Following the attack, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry said it would contact Ukraine to discuss the incident. The ministry expressed hope that the claims would be resolved diplomatically so that such a thing would not happen again in the future.

In preparing the material Izvestia talked to and took into account the opinions:

• political scientist Dmitry Solonnikov;
• industrial expert, economist Leonid Khazanov;
• Igor Yushkov, leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.