The Trump administration has set the goal of reducing defense spending by 40% at once. For this purpose, it is planned to carry out a large-scale audit of the Pentagon and, possibly, to reduce the military presence in Europe. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Then Ilon is coming to you
The Trump team has been talking about the fact that the U.S. government system needs revision and large-scale restructuring for a long time. It was separately acknowledged that optimization of defense spending and the very mechanisms of functioning and budgeting of the Pentagon would be a key element of this reform.
On February 19, U.S. media reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered a plan to reduce the Pentagon's budget by 40% from its current level by 2029, or $50 billion every 12 months.
It should be noted that the previous US administration intended to act in the opposite direction. In December, Joe Biden approved a total defense budget for 2025 (that is, until October 1) in the amount of $895 billion (or 3.4% of U.S. GDP). A month later, then-Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin came out with a plan to gradually increase spending to reach $1 trillion by 2027, which would be more than 40% of all global defense spending.
The forthcoming audit of the military department is likely to be the largest in history. And its political component will be no less important than its economic one. In other words, all disloyal personnel or those who promoted and supported DEI-initiatives (Diversity, Equality, Inclusion) will be removed from the army. Hegseth has already said he will give the Ilon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) special access to Pentagon systems "to identify mismanagement of funds and combat abuses within the Department of Defense."
Not cuts, but optimization
On the technical side, however, it's not just about cuts, but also about redirecting funds. "We will scrap Biden-era non-lethal programs and instead spend that money on President Trump's priorities - 'America First: Peace Through Strength' - for our national budget," Hegseth said.
The austerity regime will not affect promising projects like modernizing nuclear capabilities (which Hegseth believes are in decline), missile defense systems (in contrast, a U.S. version of Iron Dome has been announced for development) and the strike drone program. In addition, the Pentagon will continue to invest in Virginia-class submarines and cybersecurity. In total, there are 17 spending items.
One of the key elements of optimization, American experts call the reduction of the U.S. military presence abroad. At the moment, no less than 300 thousand American soldiers and officers are based at 900 facilities in 177 countries. As Joe Biden stated, 80 thousand of them are on the territory of NATO countries in Europe. On average, their maintenance costs the American budget up to $100 billion a year.
At the same time, Hegseth's order lists only three of the 11 unified commands of the U.S. Army as "protected" from optimization: Indo-Pacific (INDOPACOM), Northern (NORTHCOM) and Space (SPACECOM). European Command (EUCOM, which also manages operations in the Middle East) and Central Command (CENTRCOM, operating from the Persian Gulf to Central Asia) are not on the list.
The European question
The German press reported on Trump's plans to reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe as early as 2020.
The events of recent weeks have raised the subject again. The British press even rushed to report that the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Eastern Europe was one of Russia's conditions at the recent talks in Riyadh. This information was denied by both Moscow and Washington.
Meanwhile, both American and European officials have spoken of a possible reduction of military presence on the European continent without regard to the Ukrainian crisis. At the Munich Security Conference, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, head of the NATO Military Committee, mentioned this. Washington requires European allies to make a greater contribution to strengthening their own defense capabilities and reorient their military tools to the Indo-Pacific region.
At the same time, experts state that the presence of American troops in Europe since the middle of the last century has been an element of political control over the continent. And despite the statements about the need to increase defense spending by allies, Washington is unlikely to give up such an effective instrument of influence. All the more so when it comes to Eastern Europe, emphasizes Sergei Mikhailov, a leading RISI expert.
- I doubt very much that such reductions will affect the US military in Poland or Romania. First of all, of course, we are talking about Germany. Trump can always say that the bases are there without any sense," notes the Izvestia interlocutor.
The expert also recalled that representatives of the military-industrial complex have always been among the largest sponsors of the Republican Party, so the form and schedule of the proposed spending cuts will obviously have to be coordinated with them.
Ukrainian trace of Mexican troubles
Another important reason is the likely army operation on the southern border. Trump has repeatedly stated the possibility of a forceful solution to the problem of drug trafficking from Mexico, which has long ago acquired the status of a national disaster.
But here the U.S. will have to face the consequences of its own foreign policy. Reports that drug cartels are actively acquiring U.S. weapons supplied to Ukraine have been appearing for the past two and a half years. Both Russian and Mexican officials have been making the same claim all this time. In the United States, they began to speak openly about the problem relatively recently. Meanwhile, it is not just small arms. The cartels are already armed with Javelin APCs, which the Pentagon began supplying during Trump's first term, Phoenix Ghost barrage munitions, and M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel mines, which were also on the lists of weapons sent to Kiev.
But that's only part of the trouble. The South American media have repeatedly reported on numerous cases of mercenaries from Colombia, Honduras and Guatemala being recruited by Mexican cartels to fight in the AFU. With unique combat experience, they reportedly make up the "elite units" of the Los Reyes, Jalisco and probably other cartels.
While this is being addressed largely at the expense of the Mexican government, the U.S. Air Force is conducting aerial reconnaissance. However, there are many indications of much more substantial U.S. involvement in this issue in the foreseeable future, up to and including a full-scale military operation involving all possible means. If the goal is to destroy the cartels rather than a show of force, it will take a lot of effort to realize it, says military observer Andrei Soyustov.
- Among the many different mercenaries, Colombians in Ukraine occupy the most important place. According to some reports, their numbers during certain periods of the SWO were greater than all Europeans combined. After serving their time and finding their services unpaid, they move home, where, as people with unique experience of large-scale military conflict, they are recruited by criminal groups. People who have mastered general military combat can bleed professional U.S. military personnel, especially when it comes to guerrilla warfare. In fact, the U.S. has three options for strategy, but if we mean a real operation, not "decorative" missile strikes, then in any case it will require a very serious attraction of resources, even if it will be conducted in alliance with Mexican government troops, - says the expert.
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