Expert predicts victory of CDU party in German parliamentary elections

The Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) is more likely to win the parliamentary elections in Germany on February 23, and a coalition government should be expected to be formed following the voting results. This was stated by Alexander Kamkin, associate professor at the Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation, to Izvestia on February 20.

A poll by the INSA Institute showed that 30% of German citizens are ready to vote for the CDU in the parliamentary elections on February 23. For the party "Alternative for Germany" (AdG) want to vote 22% of voters, "Green" - 13%. At the same time, the ratings of the "Left Party" have risen slightly, 6.5% of respondents want to vote for them. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz gained only 15% of support in a poll conducted on February 18 and 19.

"[CDU party head Friedrich] Merz is more likely to become chancellor. A coalition government will be formed that includes the CDU, SPD, and that's where the intrigue begins. <...> They will have to take another third partner," Kamkin said.

He recalled that, according to the latest poll, support for the Left Party has increased. According to him, it is with it that the Greens will compete for a place in the future coalition. In addition, the expert emphasized that the CDU is not ready to cooperate with the AdG despite the pressure from Washington.

"Accordingly, if the Left party passes, the CDU and SPD will have a choice with whom it is easier to conclude a coalition, but the Left opposes the expansion of military aid to Ukraine. The CDU, on the contrary, is in favor of supplying [long-range missiles] Taurus," Kamkin said.

According to him, the question about the third party that will join the coalition remains open. However, according to the expert, the FRG will be led by an alliance of three parties.

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On February 19, Scholz ruled out the creation of a coalition with the "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht - for Reason and Justice" (SSV) and the "Left Party". According to him, an alliance with either of the two parties is out of the question. For his part, Merz has repeatedly denied any statements about possible CDU cooperation with the AdH.

In December 2024, the Bundestag revoked the confidence of the Scholz government. Then German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier endorsed February 23, 2025 as a possible date for early parliamentary elections.