Friendship vs. the dragon: Taiwan is getting closer to Trump
Taipei has decided to buy a multi-billion dollar amount of weapons from Washington. The arsenal may include HIMARS multiple launch rocket launchers. Taiwanese authorities had very good relations with the first administration of Donald Trump, after returning to the White House, the president is not going to turn his back on the island. How the friendship with Taiwan will affect US ties with China is the subject of Izvestia.
Grandiose plans
The Taiwanese authorities are planning a large purchase of weapons from the United States. This is reported by Reuters, citing sources. According to his information, the cost of the deal could be from 7 to 10 billion dollars.
Previously it was reported that the Taiwanese authorities plan to increase defense spending by up to 3% in 2025 amid threats by US leader Donald Trump to impose duties on semiconductors.
Who Washington supports
Official relations between China and Taiwan broke down back in 1949. After China's Kuomintang-led government was defeated in a civil war with the Communists, it moved to Taiwan and declared itself the sole legitimate authority.
Initially, the island nation was successful: until the 1970s, many states recognized the Republic of China and it had representation in the UN. But in 1971, this status passed to the PRC. Despite the loss of diplomatic recognition, Taiwan continued to have its own power, army and its own currency.
Taiwan Chief Executive Lai Qingde visited a military airbase in eastern Taiwan
Beijing has long proposed the "one country, two systems" model, which remains true today. This implied that Taiwan could revert to China as an autonomous region. At times, it seemed that the two sides were able to reach an agreement. In 1991, Taiwan officially ended its war with China, and in 2008, the Kuomintang's Ma Ying-jeou became president and won, promising to improve relations with Beijing. He emphasized that such cooperation was beneficial to Taiwan itself.
Economic ties between China and Taiwan have become quite strong despite political differences. Beijing has always considered the island's government as separatist.
However, in 2016, when a representative of the opposition party was elected president of Taiwan, the course of self-determination became more explicit. This caused discontent in Beijing, which felt that Taiwan had overstepped its bounds.
Taiwan Air Force Base in Taichung
Diplomatic relations between the US and the PRC were established in 1979, and since then Washington has said it recognizes China as one and indivisible, with the government in Beijing as the legitimate representative of China and Taiwan considered part of the PRC.
The U.S., despite proclaiming a "one China" policy, remains actively engaged with the administration in Taipei. In recent years, Washington has increasingly irritated Beijing with visits by its top politicians to the island, as well as active support for local authorities.
US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system in Taiwan's air defense system
In addition, the United States is considered Taiwan's main arms supplier. Washington also provides unofficial defense of the island and periodically sends warships to the Taiwan Strait.
At the same time, U.S. Assistant to the President for National Security Mike Waltz said that the current administration of Donald Trump is going to increase the pace of arms and military equipment deliveries to Taipei.
Profitable partner
Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Complex European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the US has changed its approach to military-technical cooperation with Taiwan.
- In addition, the so-called normalization of U.S.-Taiwan military-technical cooperation has taken place, when contracts with Taiwan began to be concluded on the same basis as contracts with internationally recognized states, without any regard for China's position and in a noticeably larger number," the Chinese scholar explained.
According to the political scientist, Taiwan is the best partner for the U.S. military-industrial complex, because Washington is the only supplier of weapons to the island, and, as a rule, the Taiwanese pay at least one and a half times more for the same weapons systems.
Taiwan Army military exercise in Xinzhu County
- It's a very favorable partner, and that's important to Trump. Taiwan has a dual approach here. On the one hand, it strengthens its defense capabilities. On the other hand, it shows the current American administration that it is ready to cooperate and give something to America," the expert commented.
The expert added that against the background of the Ukrainian conflict, the USA had difficulties in fulfilling a number of contracts with Taiwan in the sphere of military-technical cooperation.
- In some periods, the total amount of unfulfilled deals in 2022 reached about $19 billion. Since then, the situation has improved. Now the Taiwanese are acting logically and developing relations with Trump at the expense of this," the analyst believes.
A tank unit of the Taiwanese Armed Forces during an exercise
In his opinion, close cooperation between the US and Taiwan will traditionally have a bad effect on US-China relations.
- Another thing is that the main damage has already been done, in fact, by Trump himself in his first presidential term and in the first two years of the Biden administration. The culmination was the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022," the expert said.
He added that in the last year of his presidency Joseph Biden went for some de-escalation and did not make any new radical steps. Under Trump, there was a sharp increase in the level of contacts between the US and Taiwan. So it is possible that the U.S. leader will resume the practice of sending one of his ministers to the island.
The pressure on China will become more sophisticated
Alexei Maslov, director of the ISAA of Lomonosov Moscow State University, notes that under Trump "a very powerful anti-China team of future ministers and advisers is being formed."
"The anti-China restrictive policy will be in the center of attention of the United States. And the methods of pressure on the PRC will become tougher and more sophisticated," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, China has great leverage on American sanctions. According to the expert, first of all, Beijing will limit cooperation with Washington in the field of high technology, as well as, possibly, the supply of rare earth metals.
Sergei Sanakoev, president of the Autonomous Nonprofit Organization "Center for Asia-Pacific Research", an expert of the Russian-Chinese Commission for the Preparation of Regular Meetings of Heads of Government, believes that the Taiwan card will not be played under Trump's presidency.
"Taiwan remains a recognized part of China. Unless the local authorities start an official secession procedure and there is no external intervention, Beijing is not going to take any action against Taiwan. China is going to continue its policy of peaceful reunification of the unified people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait," the expert concluded.
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