Unemployment will rise in 2025 for the first time since the beginning of the decade
This year, the unemployment rate will rise from the current 2.3% to 2.6%, according to the results of the February macroeconomic survey by the Central Bank, as seen by Izvestia. The rise could be the first time since the pandemic 2020, when the figure rose to 5.9%.
By 2027, analysts polled by the Central Bank expect unemployment to rise to the level of 2023 - to 2.9%.
Unemployment hit rock bottom last year. In the future, the labor market is expected to cool down following the expected slowdown in the economy, believes Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at FG Finam. According to her, this is facilitated by business optimization against the background of high key and tax increases.
The expert noted that the imminent growth of unemployment is already evidenced by certain signs: employment services are receiving fewer vacancies, and the media is increasingly information about layoffs in large corporations, such as Gazprom.
As Belenkaya specified, the probable release of part of the labor resources, which since the beginning of the special operation have been transferred to the armed forces or to the enterprises of the defense-industrial complex, will be one of the factors affecting the continued increase in the indicators. She recalled that recently the authorities have been actively discussing the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.
"Most likely, unemployment will grow, but slowly. This will be due to the development of digitalization and automation of business processes - for example, in trade, which is moving to an online format," added Yulia Dolzhenkova, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Read more in Izvestia's exclusive piece:
Record, but: in 2025 unemployment may rise for the first time since the beginning of the decade
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