Worst supporting role: EU will have to fulfill US conditions on Ukraine
Europe's role in the conflict settlement is fading into the background amid preparations for the talks between the Russian and US delegations in Saudi Arabia. The United States has made it clear: first they will talk to Russia and then to Ukraine. Brussels is not promised a physical place at the negotiating table at the first stages either. And the EU countries themselves have failed to come to a meaningful result from the Munich Security Conference. Now the EU is far from any common decision on the end of the conflict, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Izvestia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is ready to freeze the conflict along the front line if guarantees are provided by the West, a source familiar with the negotiations told Izvestia. What was the outcome of the Munich Security Conference and what to expect from the negotiation process on Ukraine - in the exclusive material of "Izvestia".
What was discussed at the Munich Security Conference
The historic one and a half hour conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on February 12 seriously influenced the agenda of the Munich Security Conference, which ended last weekend. While back in 2024 all the talk was about the inadmissibility of a Russian victory, Ukraine's integration into NATO and increasing defense budgets to help Kiev, this time the main focus was on ending the conflict through peace talks, which, according to some reports, could take place as early as this month.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance
Three officials from the Trump administration initially headed to Munich to promote peace on terms unfavorable to Ukraine: Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg.
As a result, Rubio's plane had to return halfway back to the U.S. - allegedly due to technical problems. However, the Secretary of State managed to contact Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. In addition to the situation in Ukraine, the two officials discussed the possibility of potential cooperation on other issues and agreed on regular contacts, including for the preparation of a summit meeting. The politicians also exchanged views on ways to put an early end to the line of "maximum tightening of conditions for the functioning of Russian diplomatic missions in the United States," launched by Barack Obama in 2016.
European partners expected JD Vance to be specific about future peace talks, but last Friday he instead devoted 10 minutes of his speech to criticizing the EU for departing from democratic values, including censorship, blocking social media and ignoring its own voters. Ukraine was mentioned only in passing in his speech.
"The threat that worries me most about Europe is not Russia, not China, not any other external player. I am concerned about a threat from within: Europe's retreat from some of its most fundamental values, values shared by the United States," he said.
More details on the Ukrainian issue were provided to European elites the very next day by the US President's special envoy Keith Kellogg. According to Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, the American politician explained to him and other participants of the conference the tactics of negotiations. Sikorski did not reveal details, but noted that it "gives rise to certain hopes." What is clear, however, is that Europe does not appear to be physically at the negotiating table, at least in the first stages. Kellogg states that the U.S. does not want to "enter into discussions with a large number of participants" and is now taking a two-track approach. In other words, they are talking separately with Ukraine and separately with Russia.
Such statements were expectedly negatively received by EU governments. Europe should take part in the peace talks on Ukraine, but first it needs to develop a common position and coordinate it with Kiev and Washington, Czech President Petr Pavel said.
Against this background, Zelensky said that it was Ukraine that should decide who would sit down with them at the negotiating table. He also accused the West of slowness in providing assistance and linked the failures of the AFU on the battlefield in 2024 to this.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (powers expired on May 20, 2024)
In fact, Europe is far from any common decision on the end of the conflict. This opinion was expressed by Gabrielius Landsbergis, former head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, in a conversation with Izvestia.
- In reality, it is impossible to think that one conference will find a solution to the conflict. I think this is only the beginning of broader problems we will face in Europe," he said.
A different opinion from the EU countries on the American policy to bring peace to Ukraine is now expressed by Switzerland and the UK. Bern, for example, is ready to welcome any peace initiative and will also positively assess high-level contacts between Russia and the United States. Local media saw this statement as a partial refusal of Switzerland's support for Ukraine. As for the UK, London deliberately does not criticize Washington's proposals so as not to worsen relations with the new administration, Times sources said.
What is known about the negotiation process
The first official contacts between the Russian and US negotiating teams will take place in the coming days. Saudi Arabia has been chosen as the venue - the country has previously offered to become a platform for contacts, but between Moscow and Kiev. It is assumed that the kingdom will discuss, among other things, preparations for the meeting between Putin and Trump. On February 16, the US President's special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Whitkoff, said that the American delegation was already leaving for Riyadh - it also included Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. It is not yet known who will represent Moscow. At the same time, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier that Russia had begun preparations to form a negotiating group, without mentioning Saudi Arabia or any other countries. Later, the Kremlin spokesman emphasized that after the conversation between Putin and Trump, the Russian Federation and the United States would solve problems through dialogue, and the American president "can come to Russia any time he wants."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump (right), June 28, 2019
One of the topics of the meeting in Saudi Arabia will be to discuss the normal functioning of the embassies in Moscow and Washington to negotiate a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, said Mark Rubio. For the time being, the talks are unlikely to fully address the Ukrainian issue. After the dialog between Moscow and Washington starts, both Kiev and Brussels are planning to join the discussion.
At the same time Zelensky's visit to the kingdom is being prepared, however, his goals are called the exchange of prisoners - he ruled out the possibility of meeting with American and Russian politicians. Earlier, an adviser to the head of Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that in his opinion, there is "nothing on the table for discussion".
At the same time, Ukraine has already outlined conditions for the end of hostilities: Kiev insists on some kind of "just peace," demands U.S. security guarantees, and asks for time and ideas to work out a deal on rare earth resources in exchange for continued Washington aid.
- Ukraine is willing to freeze the conflict along the front line, but not at any price. We need security guarantees. The option with the introduction of troops from Western countries stands the best chance," a source familiar with the negotiations on the Ukrainian issue told Izvestiya.
According to the Ukrainian side's calculations, to ensure peace, the country needs at least 100,000 troops in the format of a peacekeeping contingent, and Americans must be among them. However, on February 14, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, made it clear that the United States would not send troops to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Washington has sent a question to European governments on how exactly they can provide Kiev with security guarantees - we are talking about possible dispatch of peacekeepers, weapons and probable security agreements with Kiev. It is likely that Emmanuel Macron will gather European colleagues in Paris on February 17 to work out this issue. The same Radoslaw Sikorski believes that EU countries will sooner or later have to introduce their military contingents on Ukrainian territory to ensure these guarantees.
In the meantime, Europe still sees Ukraine's inclusion in NATO as the most logical way to ensure security guarantees. In particular, this view was expressed at the Munich conference by German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. According to them, "this is the easiest and cheapest way". Although as early as the February 12 Ramstein meeting, Hegseth made it clear that the U.S. does not believe that such an outcome of a diplomatic settlement is realistic.
- The most important thing that has happened in recent days is the conversation between President Trump and President Putin. Trump said very clearly that NATO expansion into Ukraine is not a good idea and it should end. I think Ukraine will remain sovereign and independent, but it will not be part of NATO, it will be neutral. It will have slightly less territory than it had before 2014 or in 1991," said Jeffrey Sachs, an American economist and professor at Columbia University.
According to the expert, Europe will have to follow the United States as soon as it starts the negotiation process with Russia and announces its intention to end military operations. Brussels is unable to provide Kiev in terms of defense capabilities, and Ukraine is unable to win on its own. According to Sachs, Kiev would have lost less territory if it had agreed to end the conflict in 2022. Continued fighting was a "bad idea," but it was exactly what the Biden administration had been promoting for several years.
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