Fisherman to fisherman: pollock may be on the table for Russia-U.S. negotiations

One of Russia's dozens of political tools in possible future negotiations with the United States may be the discussion of conditions for joint fishing, primarily pollock fishing in the Bering Sea. Now, with equal access to this bioresource, the Russian Federation voluntarily underestimates the volume of allowable catches of pollock in the shared water area, while the United States catches all of its pollock in the Bering Sea and increases production year by year. Increasing pollock catches there will allow Russia to strengthen its position on the world market and destroy the income of American fishermen. Izvestia reports whether our fish will become one of the elements of the deal and a bargaining tool with Washington in negotiations on lifting sanctions.

Thephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and White House head Donald Trump has already been called a diplomatic warming. This means that deeper contacts at the level of the two countries' governments on specific economic issues, mainly on the lifting of mutual sanctions, may soon begin. The Federation Council is already preparing for the president a list of agreements with unfriendly countries that are disadvantageous for Russia, the threat of annulment of which can serve, according to experts, as an excellent tool for obtaining the most favorable conditions in negotiations. And joint management of fishing in the Bering Sea, formalized in an agreement similar to the Russian-Norwegian agreement on the Barents Sea, may become one of the elements of the deal.

Fishermen working in Alaska are alarmed by the fact that Russia may increase catches. The fact is that this will lead to a decrease in prices and as a consequence to a collapse of their incomes. Some Russian fishermen are also concerned, as they are against increasing production for the sake of preserving margins. At the same time, according to experts, the increase in pollock catch in the Bering Sea will allow Russia to strengthen its position on the world market. The industry notes that the increase in quotas and actual pollock production in the Bering Sea, which is common with the States, will allow to load coastal fish factories, increase salaries and tax revenues to budgets, as well as to export more deep-processed products rather than frozen fish, which will eventually make pollock more affordable inside Russia. Experts believe that since increased pollock production will strengthen the fishing industry, the Bering Sea agreement could become one of dozens of tools in negotiations on normalizing economic relations with the West.

Fish arguments in negotiations

According to Konstantin Kosachev, vice-speaker of the Federation Council, Russia has concluded over 15,000 different international agreements, most of them with unfriendly countries. Senators have already denounced the 1956 fishing agreement with Great Britain, which allowed the British to fish in the Russian zone of the Barents Sea along the coast of the Kola Peninsula.

At the same time, the treaty signed in the 90s between the USSR and the USA on the line of maritime delimitation in the Bering Sea, nicknamed "the Shevardnadze-Baker line of betrayal", does not even need to be denounced. It is still not ratified in Russia.

The fact that the treaty was concluded on terms unfavorable to Moscow is obvious even beyond the ocean. As the Washington Post wrote on September 16, 1991, "in defense of the treaty, the State Department said that 70% of the Bering Sea would be under U.S. jurisdiction, and that would give the country 13,200 square nautical miles more than if the line had been drawn at an equal distance between the coasts."

Against this backdrop, it would now be logical to remind the U.S. of the treaty's status and push the U.S. to sign a fisheries co-management agreement.

- Of course, such an agreement as on joint fishing in the Bering Sea can and should be a subject of discussion with the U.S. in terms of increasing our pollock production," says Dmitry Labin, chief researcher at the Department of International Law of the Laboratory of International Legal Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). - This is not a bad lever or argument in negotiations with the Americans, since we are talking about our strategic industry interests in this matter. It is not for nothing that this issue is increasingly being put on the agenda at various levels and in the Federation Council. It is always better to have as many negotiating tools as possible at your disposal.

Russia's economic interests

The fact is that now, with equal access to bioresources, Russian fishermen catch only 20% of pollock in the Bering Sea. At the same time, pollock is strategically important for the country: its production last year amounted to almost 2 million tons out of about 5 million tons of bioresources. And most of it - up to 85% - is exported, mainly to China, instead of reaching the partially empty coastal enterprises and not getting on the shelves.

This state of affairs in 2022 (when unprecedented sanctions were imposed against Russia after the start of the SWO) was discussed at a meeting on the development of the fishing industry. At the meeting, Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Plenipotentiary Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev asked Ilya Shestakov, head of Rosrybolovstvo, why Russian fishermen are not getting increased quotas for pollock fishing in the Bering Sea.

- Now Russia catches 20% - 400,000 tons, while the US catches 1.4 million tons - 80%. This can be changed without taking any international additional decisions," Trutnev said.

That is, Russia can safely increase pollock catch in the Bering Sea, but for American fishermen this growth may be fatal. If we start catching fattening pollock in the western part of the Bering Sea, American fishermen will remain in the catch. In the meantime, they catch all their pollock there and shape the market worldwide by dictating prices.

Better less but more expensive?

Despite the fact that Russia catches less pollock in common waters than it can, some major fishermen have come forward with a proposal to reduce quotas. Last summer, at a meeting in Rosrybolovstvo , representatives of the Association of Ship Owners of Fishing Fleet (ASRF), the All-Russian Association of Fishery Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters (VARPE) and the Association of Pollock Producers (ADM) explained their initiative by the global decline in prices for pollock by 23% due to its large volume on the market.

According to Rosrybolovstvo data, in 2023 the pollock catch in Russia reached the maximum for the last decades in 602 thousand tons, exceeding by 20% the figure for 2022 (502.3 thousand tons) and by 48% the average value of the catch for 2000-2022 (407 thousand). And as soon as pollock prices fell globally, Russian exports declined and fishermen's incomes fell. So they fear that an increase in catches in the Bering Sea could further hit their economy.

- In general, WARPE and the fishing community believe that the 1991 agreement <...> is unfavorable for the economic interests of the fishing industry of our country, - said WARPE President German Zverev last November.

According to him, in the last few years, the All-Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO) estimated the stock of pollock in the Bering Sea as high and, accordingly, increased the volume of authorized catches - for three years it increased 1.7 times, up to 705 thousand tons.

- This year the actual catches turned out to be lower, so scientists are conducting additional analysis of the situation, - added German Zverev.

As a result, Rosrybolovstvo decided to reduce the quota for pollock fishing in the Bering Sea from 783 to 700 thousand tons in 2025.

Catch up and overtake America?

According to Rosrybolovstvo data, pollock production on the Russian territory is in the range of 389-658 thousand tons per year. This is despite the fact that about 1.5 million tons of pollock enter the Russian western part of the Bering Sea every year, which after feeding goes to the eastern part to the Americans, who catch 1.1-1.3 million tons.

At the same time, the US fears that Russian regulators will decide to increase the pollock fishing quota in the Bering Sea. Joe Bandrant, CEO of Alaska-based fishing company Trident Seafoods, said at an annual fishing conference in Anchorage that low Russian prices have devalued Alaska-produced products.

The Alaska public news site quoted him as saying that Russia's decision to raise quotas "went against the recommendations of a number of scientists and requests from some Russian fishing groups concerned about low prices in an oversaturated market."

- It pains me to even talk about it," Bandrant told conference participants. - When the fish swims across the date line, it is caught and sold around the world as Alaska pollock. That's the name of the species. So even if we can do a great marketing campaign in South America, we do a great marketing campaign in Germany or Japan, and the Russians come and say, "Well, we have Alaskan pollock too. It's just cheaper."

Why quotas must be chosen

Unlike U.S. fishermen, some Russian fishermen are reluctant to increase quotas, in part because they are afraid of not choosing them completely, because then they will be deprived of part of the quota another time.

- On the one hand, we do not have enough catch volume for processing, and on the other hand, an increase in the ODU for pollock will lead to an increase in its extraction, and this again, as this year, will lead to a decrease in price and profitability," says Sergei Tarusov, chairman of the Sakhalin fishing collective farm named after Lenin. - Last year we sold pollock at almost zero profitability.

At the same time, it has become more difficult for Russian fishermen to compete on the foreign market. Alexey Osintsev, Vice-President of the Association of Ship Owners of Fishing Fleet (ASRF), explained that the European Union, which used to be the main market for Russian deep-processed fish products, has 13.7% barrier duties for white fish, and new fishing vessels and processing plants cannot get permission for deliveries to the EU - their applications are simply not considered.

In the Asian markets, conditions for Russian fishermen are also less favorable compared to their competitors. Osintsev explains this by the fact that China and South Korea have zero import duty for a number of countries, while for Russian exporters it reaches 10%.

- In South Korea favorable conditions apply to pollock from the U.S., in China - for products from Norway, Chile, New Zealand and Iceland, - said the expert, who is also in favor of reducing the quota for pollock fishing to maintain a high world price and the margins of fishermen.

Although, according to the Fish Union, it is fishermen who have the highest profitability in the industry: 23% last year (63% three years earlier) against 9% for fish processors, who regularly lack fresh raw materials. In short, if the volume of pollock catches in the Bering Sea can be used as a tool in negotiations on the lifting of sanctions, it is not so painful for fishermen.

Moreover, now the situation has changed significantly in their favor. Alexander Efremov, the manager of the Dobroflot group of companies, notes that profitability in the industry depends not only on prices for fish products, but also on the volume of catches. More quotas, more catches per vessel - increase of quotas allows fishermen to catch more. Larger catches reduce the indirect costs of fishermen to produce a kilogram of fish products. Preparation of vessels for voyages, repairs, inter-voyage service and maintenance of the fleet, transitions to and from fishing and many other things, all these indirect costs are reduced per kilogram of fish products produced with increasing production. In the cost of fish production indirect costs are a significant part and significantly affect it, and this in turn affects the profitability of fishing. Therefore, an increase in quotas leads to an increase in fishing profitability by reducing the share of indirect costs.

- In the case of cost reduction, fishermen can sell their products cheaper, so it becomes more competitive, including in foreign markets, replacing the products of competitors in the pollock market, for which the reduction of fishing costs, according to their statements in the media, is unacceptable, - says Alexander Efremov.

In February 2025, the situation changed dramatically: the decrease in world prices for pollock was followed by a sharp increase in their sharp rise.

- Right now pollock prices have risen to $1300 per ton, which is the maximum for five years. Taking into account the dollar exchange rate, fishermen receive 30% more for pollock in rubles to profitably fulfill their obligations to catch 70% of the quotas, as required by agreements on the use of pollock quotas in the Bering Sea, - emphasizes Efremov.

He is sure that "with the current prices fishermen will be able to cope with the fishery".

- This proves that the increase in quotas will not undermine the industry, but will strengthen its role in the country's economy," the manager of Dobroflot Group of Companies is sure.

According to the Fish Union, the production of fish products last year decreased by 5% - from 3.8 to 3.6 million tons, following the decline in the nationwide catch of aquatic bioresources - from 5.5 million tons in 2023 to about 5 million tons in 2024. At the same time, the revenue of all fish processing companies increased by 8%, to 240 billion rubles, due to the growth of production costs and prices. Therefore, from 2022 to 2024, the average Russian cost of frozen fish increased from 200 to 240 rubles per kilogram.

However, prices for the consumer for fish products from the same pollock can be lower in case of increasing its supply.

- Increased supply of pollock will make fish products more affordable for the population, especially in the inflationary environment," said Alexander Yefremov. - In addition, 12 thousand workers of the fishing fleet and processing will have an opportunity to increase their incomes due to the additional load of fish factories and the emergence of new ones. And, of course, the increase of pollock quotas in the Bering Sea directly leads to an increase in tax revenues to the budget.

Trump does not need Russian pollock

- Certainly, no one has set the task to crash the price of pollock to Alaskan fishermen in order to hurt the Americans," says Alexei Zudin, a political scientist and senior lecturer at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry. - But now, on the eve of negotiations with the United States, the government's economic bloc should weigh the economic interests of each industry, and the fishing industry in particular.

And on this basis it will be necessary to decide what should be sacrificed for the sake of other favorable conditions, and what should remain inviolable, Zudin added.

Vladimir Mozhegov, an international political scientist, is sure that Donald Trump is seriously aiming at joint development of the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic shelf with Russia.

- Moreover, he will try to oust China from there, which we are kind of calling now to the Northern Sea Route, - says Vladimir Mozhegov. - Therefore, I think that everything that concerns the northern territories can now become a favorable bargaining chip for us or an argument in negotiations on the most important issues.

Mozhegov believes that the U.S. President will have no objections if Russia increases pollock catches in the Bering Sea - for him it will be a trifle against the background of more important aspects of economic relations in the northern seas.

- And for us, it would be a trump card up our sleeve just in case," the expert concludes.

Dmitry Abzalov, head of the Center for Strategic Communications, agrees with him. He explained that Alaska is traditionally a Republican state, and for Trump the interests of undecided states, where the electorate of his rival Democrats prevails, are more important.

- That's why he is trying to impose duties on metal, oil products, soybeans and other things in their interests," said Dmitry Abzalov. - And if he gets a few percent less support in Alaska because the interests of their fishermen have suffered from our increase in pollock production, it will not be sensitive for him, he is unlikely to pay attention to it at all.

At the same time, the expert believes that now is the time to use a new window of opportunity in relations with the U.S. to develop not only fishing, but also other industries, because the U.S. will now strengthen the confrontation with China and other Asian countries, but not Russia.

- With regard to South Korea, Japan and Vietnam, the US will soon impose equalizing import duties, including on seafood, - Dmitry Abzalov predicts. - Accordingly, our fish may become more competitive in the U.S. markets, and sanctions restrictions may soon be lifted. By and large, this opens up the possibility of dominating the fish market and increasing production, taking into account the new opportunities.