How the Munich Security Conference went. A breakdown
The Munich Security Conference, which has been held annually since 1963, was held this time from February 14 to 16. The most discussed event at it was a speech by U.S. Vice President James (J.D.) Vance, in which he chided Europe for uncontrolled migration, rejection of traditional values, and the collapse of the principles of democracy. How exactly the meeting in Germany demonstrated the ideological rift between the old elites in the EU and the new ones in the United States - in the material of "Izvestia".
Negotiating progress
- The key issue of the Munich conference was the settlement of the situation in Ukraine. US Presidential Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg said that Washington will take Europe's opinion into account during the negotiations, but the Europeans themselves may not be present at these consultations. At the same time, he said that he could not yet say how he sees the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine as a result of the conflict settlement. Thus, the US does not believe that the EU can offer "something really weighty". The EU will have to become a stronger player if its interests are to be listened to. The terms of a possible peace treaty proposed by Washington are not yet clear either. Many analysts agree that the White House itself is still unclear about the terms.
- The possibility of upcoming negotiations between Russian and U.S. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump frighten some representatives of Europe, because their interests will be taken into account indirectly. Moscow considers Washington to be its "main vis-a-vis" in the peace talks. However, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky (his term expired last May) said in Munich that the meeting with Putin will take place only after Kiev prepares a joint plan with Trump and European countries to end the military operation. The question remains whether Kiev, with the support of the EU, will prolong the conflict and hinder the start of a peaceful settlement or whether Ukraine will sit down at the negotiating table after all.
- At the same time, the rhetoric of the main European politicians has changed against the background of the US desire to settle the conflict as soon as possible. For example, Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa, chairmen of the European Commission and the European Council, met with Zelensky in Munich, promising him "stable support" for Ukraine until peace is achieved, not until "victory" as previously stated. Thus, Europe is beginning to realize that it will have to take into account Washington's desire to end the conflict on the European continent.
- Washington's initiative to end the Ukrainian conflict should be treated with caution. Trump cannot be called a man of his word, his position and promises on many issues have changed dramatically over time. Therefore, in what format the negotiations will take place and what exactly conditions will be included in the peace treaty is still not clear.
- The key issue of the negotiations will be Ukraine's possible membership in NATO, as well as Kiev's territorial claims. On February 12, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stressed at the regular meeting of the Western contact group in Brussels that returning Ukraine to the 2014 borders is an unrealistic task and actually ruled out the possibility of Kiev's admission to NATO. President Trump later said that these statements of Hegseth accurately reflect Washington's position.
- However, in Europe do not agree with this. In particular, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Federal Republic of Germany noted that in case of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, Kiev will need such an army, which the Ukrainian economy will not be able to finance. Therefore, the help of partners will be needed. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also said that the easiest and cheapest way to protect Ukraine is NATO membership. However, unless the European side is actually present at the talks, these remarks may be ignored. In addition, despite Scholz's statements, Germany, along with the U.S., does not want to see Kiev as part of NATO.
U.S.-European cooperation
- The Munich conference was not just about Russia or the Ukrainian settlement, but about figuring out the transatlantic relationship between the US and EU countries. European elites had to listen to a harsh reprimand about democracy, which must be purged of its ultra-liberal distortion and returned to its roots, i.e., the standards set by America.
- U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance criticized European countries. According to him, the main threat to Europe does not come from Russia and China, but lurks within Europe itself. As examples, he cited the annulment of the election results in Romania and the risk of repeating this scenario in Germany.
On November 24, 2024, Romania held the first round of presidential elections, in which independent candidate Calin Georgescu won. On December 6, Romania's Constitutional Court annulled the entire electoral process and ordered that the election be held anew, and confirmed that Klaus Iohannis would continue to serve as president until the new head of state is sworn in, although his term expired on December 21.
- On the sidelines of the conference, Vance met with Alice Weidel, co-chair of the right-wing German Alternative for Germany (AdG) party and AdG candidate for Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. There was no meeting with Scholz, who is stepping down. With this rather rude gesture, the Americans made it clear that they would not waste their time on those politicians who no longer decide anything.
In Germany, the AdG is called a right-populist party. Other political forces consider it impossible to work with it in any coalition, either at the federal or regional levels. Currently, its rating fluctuates between 19-22%. The party occupies a confident second place in the rating of political forces of the FRG.
- Vance also criticized the EU for censorship, including the blocking of social networks. He emphasized that Europe is afraid of its own voters and in such a state is useless for the United States. In addition, the US Vice President noted that migrant crimes are repeated in the EU time after time, but they can be avoided by tightening control at the border.
- Such criticism and demands may speak of the beginning of the reformatting of relations within the Western community on a frankly imperial basis. In words, some European politicians may be outraged. For example, the French Foreign Minister, after criticism from Vance, urged not to impose foreign policies on Europe. However, because of the EU's strong economic and defense dependence on Washington, Europeans will be forced to listen to their American counterparts.
- At the same time, it is important to remember that all of today's European elites are in office thanks to American Democrats, who have been building the European system of power for about 30 years. The loss in the elections may turn out to be temporary, because in just two years it will be possible to fight for the houses of Congress, and in two more years it will be possible to take revenge in the presidential elections. In addition, despite the liquidation of USAID, the power of the "deep state" in the United States is still great, and it will do everything possible to restrain the new administration and support "its people" in Europe.
Security Formats
- NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also delivered a moralizing speech to the EU, urging Europe to come up with concrete proposals instead of complaining that it might be left out of the Ukraine negotiations. He also recommended increasing defense spending. The US has previously insisted that the allies spend 5% of their GDP on it. The White House believes that NATO countries are obliged to increase defense spending and thus allow Washington to address the challenges in East Asia.
- In Europe, the U.S. demands have been heard. Ursula von der Leyen said that "when it comes to European security, Europe must do more." EU defense spending rose from just over €200 billion through February 2022 to more than €320 billion last year. It considers that a "bold approach" is needed and suggests taking a "step back" by providing Member States with additional budgetary space so that they can substantially increase public investment, as allowed in cases of crises. Now the situation for the EU is really difficult.
- The EC chairwoman announced that she would propose to activate the budget exemption clause for the sake of defense investments, which would significantly increase the relevant expenditures. In addition, according to her, the implementation of a large-scale defense package requires a "European approach" in determining investment priorities. This will make it possible to invest in projects of common European interest.
According to the EU spending rules, the national budget deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP, and the national debt should not exceed 60%. However, for countries, primarily "with overburdened budgets", may be given more opportunities, including time, to meet these obligations if they invest in defense. They can also avoid penalties if their additional spending is defense-related.
- The Trump team as a whole is questioning the US's continued membership in NATO. This is spurring discussions in the EU about the need to achieve strategic autonomy. Europeans are struggling to agree on the means necessary to establish a common defense policy, as the countries of the association are far from becoming a single market for the defense industry. The EU defense sector is now fragmented among players competing with each other for export opportunities.
War for markets and resources
- The security conference also discussed the economy, namely Washington's protectionist policies. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, speaking in Munich, said that trade wars will lead to nothing good. However, the White House is unlikely to heed his words, as the team of the new American president sees China as the main threat to its economy.
- The US is also threatening to launch a trade war against Europe. However, it is difficult for the EU to compete with Washington. The union has long needed to de-bureaucratize and build a competitive economic management system that expands the space for innovation. European thinkers' dreams of a United States of Europe and a successful rivalry with America remain far from reality for now. Therefore, in many ways, European politicians will have to accept Washington's terms to avoid a direct economic clash.
GDP growth data for 2023-2024 clearly demonstrate a significant gap between the US and Europe. In 2023, economic growth in the US reached 2.5% compared to 0.5% in the eurozone countries.
- In addition, Ukraine's natural resources were at the center of attention at the conference. U.S. officials at a meeting with Zelensky in Munich offered him to sign a document that would transfer to the U.S. the rights to 50% of Ukraine's mineral resources that have not yet been extracted. In exchange, Washington offered security guarantees under any conditions of a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Russia. The Ukrainian leader said that negotiations on this issue are still underway. The outcome of such discussions is still in doubt. However, there is a risk that Kiev will become completely dependent on Washington's policy.
- In general, this year's Munich Security Conference may mean the end of the former transatlantic relations. The EU and international political institutions are waiting for changes that are long overdue. There are countries in Europe that are ready to listen to what the Americans are saying and take more responsibility - in particular, in the issue of security on the continent. At the same time, there is a strong sentiment in Europe that the EU should be more autonomous from Washington, especially in dealing with domestic political issues. It is still difficult to judge what path the union will take.
While preparing this article, Izvestia spoke with:
Alexei Mukhin, director of the Center for Political Information;
Andrei Koshkin, head of the Department of Political Analysis and Social and Psychological Processes at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University and military expert.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
