Political analyst names scenarios for EU withdrawal of support for Ukraine

Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and an American political scientist, has listed the scenarios under which the European Union (EU) will withdraw its support from Ukraine.

In a conversation with Lenta.Ru on Friday, February 14, the expert noted that the EU would take such a step if the Ukrainian army fails at the front, if US President Donald Trump's rhetoric changes and if there is an economic downturn.

According to the expert, Europe and Eurobureaucrats hate Trump and believe that in four mountains he will be replaced by another president, and everything will return to the usual course, so it is necessary to be patient. Others believe that Trump will be swallowed up by the "Washington swamp" and things will really fall into place.

"It is clear that even more they hate Russia. Even if the US withdraws its support for Ukraine, there will be a process of inertia by which Europe will support Ukraine," Blokhin said.

According to him, this inertia can be changed by the successes of the Russian military on the battlefield, because "when they realize that Ukraine is an illiquid asset, the support will stop." Also, the EU will keep an eye on Trump's relationship with the establishment, and if the latter crushes him, they will refuse aid, RT writes.

"Third: if Russia and China continue to grow economically, and Europe bumps along the gap, the Europeans will also go in to reconsider all this," the political scientist concluded.

Equation of power: Putin-Trump dialog forces the West to change positions on Ukraine

Even NATO gave a positive assessment of the leaders' contacts

Earlier on February 14, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth did not rule out Europe's participation in the negotiations on the settlement in Ukraine. He emphasized that he intends to "bring realism to the expectations of American allies", notes 360.ru.

On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (whose term of office expired last May) said he was ready to negotiate on the conflict, but with conditions. Thus, in his opinion, it would be fair to hold talks on Ukraine with him and US representatives, then discuss the agreements with Europe, and then already involve Russia to settle the process, the kp.ru website reported.

On February 13, the European Commission said that it considered the phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump as the beginning of a peace process to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

On 12 February, the Russian leader's press secretary, Dmitriy Peskov, said that it was premature to talk about Europe's participation in the negotiations on Ukraine.

On the same day, the first telephone conversation between the Russian and US presidents after Trump's re-election took place, which lasted about 1.5 hours. The two leaders agreed to organize a face-to-face meeting and agreed that it was time to work together. Vladimir Putin invited Trump to Moscow, notes IA Regnum.

Putin has repeatedly reminded that Russia has never given up on peace talks, but they should be conducted on the basis of the provisions agreed in Istanbul, not on the basis of "ephemeral demands."

The last round of talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Istanbul on March 29, 2022. They lasted about three hours. Later, Kiev officially refused contacts with Moscow. On October 4, 2022, the Ukrainian president put into effect the decision of the country's National Security and Defense Council on the impossibility of holding talks with Putin.