Modifying relations: Indian PM flew to the White House

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with President Donald Trump in the United States. Washington views New Delhi as an ally to counter Beijing. The two sides agreed to create a trade route through Israel and Italy, "actively engage on small modular nuclear reactors," announced contacts on Ukraine next week in Saudi Arabia, and reached agreements on energy. The talks were not complicated by the fact that the new U.S. authorities have begun to expel Indian citizens who are in the country illegally. Narendra Modi actively tried to smooth all the corners. Details - in the material "Izvestia".

To the main suppliers of oil and gas

A few days before his visit to the American capital, Narendra Modi flew to Paris for a conference on artificial intelligence, where he had time to meet with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. The politicians discussed how Washington can help India diversify its energy sources through investment in American nuclear technology." New Delhi is currently actively cooperating with Moscow and Paris on issues related to nuclear power plants.

Following his meeting with Narendra Modi, US President Donald Trump said Washington and New Delhi will now "actively engage on small modular nuclear reactors".

"The Prime Minister and I also reached an important agreement on energy that will return the United States to its position as India's leading supplier of oil and gas," Donald Trump said.

He added that during the conversation, the two sides decided to engage in joint mining and processing of critical minerals.

At the end of last year, India is the second largest importer of Russian oil, Russia is also the main supplier of oil to the country - 39%. First the former US president, now Trump, tried to prevent this. In January 2025, the outgoing administration of Joseph Biden imposed sanctions against Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, oil service companies, traders and 180 tankers.

In addition, Washington is seeking to get New Delhi to increase its purchases of U.S. weapons. Last year, India bought 12% of its arms from the US and 37% from Russia. Trump announced an increase in US arms sales to India in 2025 "by many billions of dollars." In particular, he said, the US is "paving the way" to supply India with F-35 fighter jets.

Last year, U.S. and Indian officials agreed to repair U.S. Navy ships in India and jointly produce an engine from General Electric. Since the middle of last year, the two sides have been discussing the purchase of MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones.

The Ukrainian crisis has been another topic of discussion. India's contacts with both Russia and Ukraine are valuable to Trump for resolving the conflict. The U.S. leader said that representatives of Russia, the U.S. and Ukraine will meet on Friday, February 14, the president also announced contacts on Ukraine next week in Saudi Arabia "with high-level officials."

He reiterated that the US wants an end to the Ukraine conflict.

India comes first

According to The New York Times, "behind all the flattery" uttered during the talks were two issues causing tensions between the two countries that are particularly important to Trump - trade and combating illegal migration.

According to U.S. authorities, India is the third largest source of illegal immigrants to the U.S. - 750,000 people. After his return to the White House, Trump began to implement the "operation to deport migrants" promised earlier. The day after the inauguration, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement began to detain migrants, including those from India. On February 5, a military flight arrived in Amritsar, India, carrying up to 205 people.

According to official Indian data, more than 15,000 Indians have been deported from the US since 2009, with most of them during Donald Trump's presidency.

The video of migrants in shackles has sparked outrage in India. For the Indian authorities in this situation, it is important that the topic does not look humiliating and expulsions do not occur demonstratively.

However, Modi, not wanting to quarrel with Trump, tried to smooth things over by saying, "We are of the view that anyone who enters another country illegally has absolutely no right to be in it."

New Delhi is keen to continue trade, technology and investment cooperation with the US, something the Indian prime minister has been demonstrating. During his first phone call with Modi after returning to the White House, Donald Trump reiterated that the two sides need to "move toward a fair bilateral trade relationship." However, things are not smooth sailing here either.

In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, trade between the two countries reached $118 billion, with India's surplus at $32 billion. Trump, who estimated the U.S. trade deficit at $100 billion, which is more than the official figures, is clearly not happy with this arrangement.

India is a member of BRICS, and the American president has previously promised the countries of the association to impose 100 percent tariffs if they refuse to settle in dollars.

In 2018, the Donald Trump administration increased duties on Indian steel and aluminum imports. In response, New Delhi raised tariffs on 29 U.S. goods, including food and steel products. In an attempt to normalize the situation and fearing tariff wars, the Indian authorities in early February announced their intention to reduce duties on American goods in 12 sectors at once. Among them are automobiles, solar panels and chemicals.

Modi tried to get the White House to soften the tariff policy in exchange for "gifts" from New Delhi. However, on the eve of talks with the Indian prime minister, Donald Trump instructed to work on the issue of mirror duties against all US trading partners. India is among the countries that could face particularly serious consequences of such tariffs.

However, the Prime Minister tried to smooth things over here too and despite the looming economic sanctions, he said that he is focused on doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030.

It was decided to accomplish this with the help of a trade route through Israel and Italy. According to the American leader, "a lot of money" will be spent on the project. He did not name the specific amount, as well as the terms of the route realization. The US president specified that the trade route will pass through water and on land, connecting Washington's partners and New Delhi by "ports, railroads and submarine cables".

Modi in turn added that India and the US will work "twice as fast" as they did during the US leader's first term. The prime minister also emphasized that he intends to put India's interests above everything else just as Trump has done with the US.

Washington sees New Delhi as a major partner in the Indo-Pacific region, including in the China-restraining QUAD format, which also involves Japan and Australia. Washington is trying to involve New Delhi in the confrontation with China. India is not going to go beyond strategic partnership and become a military ally of any country.

What experts think

Natalia Emelyanova, Candidate of Political Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Department of Comparative Political Science, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that there are no significant preconditions for a fundamental deterioration of relations between the United States and India.

- Serious steps towards strengthening the US-India partnership were made already during Trump's first presidency: diplomatic and defense agreements were signed, such as the Critical and Emerging Technologies Initiative and the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative," the expert explained.

The political analyst added that Trump has also made significant efforts to revitalize QUAD.

- For Washington, under any administration, New Delhi is seen as a key partner in Asia. Although the Trumpian principle of 'pragmatism above all else', which stems from the 'America First' foreign policy stance, can undoubtedly add additional dynamics to bilateral relations," the expert said.

She clarified that despite the smoothing of territorial disputes between India and China, the Chinese factor remains the key constant in US-India relations. It is about joint efforts to contain Beijing. At the same time, even in the Asian megaregion, there are definitely some questions to the American policy on the part of India, the analyst emphasized.

According to Emelyanova, the main one is the interaction with India's key regional rival Pakistan, which has intensified and expanded after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in 2021.

- India was forced to re-build its policy in Afghanistan, to think how to counter recruitment schemes under the auspices of radical Islam. All this was happening against the backdrop of China's growing influence, with whose interests it has to face again," the interlocutor believes.

The political scientist believes that Washington's tariff pressure on New Delhi is not excluded.

- Its goal is to increase contracts with American suppliers. For example, in the field of Indian defense orders, the competition for the purchase of fifth-generation fighters is unfolding right now: the choice is between the Russian Su-57E and the American F-35 and F-16," the expert noted.

In her opinion, a confident tone is being set for the further development of relations, which is dictated by security issues, technological cooperation and the development of trade channels.

- But if for Trump America comes first, then, paraphrasing, for Modi - strategic autonomy comes first. It is this principle that defines modern India's foreign policy. Its essence is that New Delhi will not compromise its national interests, strategic security and socio-economic progress for the sake of participation in a certain alliance," the specialist emphasized.

She reminded that India's foreign policy is based on multidirectionality, readiness to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with all countries, refusal to participate in military blocs and readiness to dialog in any formats. External pressure can hardly affect the establishment of closer ties and the development of Russian-Indian relations or India's participation in the BRICS+ and SCO formats, Emelyanova summarized.

Alexei Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia and Indian Ocean Group at the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at IMEMO RAS, explained in a conversation with Izvestia that China predominantly trades goods with India, while the United States imports Indian services to a greater extent.

- Thus, India has a trade surplus, with New Delhi receiving more money than Washington. Given that China supplies more goods to India than India supplies to the PRC. In 2020, the locals literally demanded that the local economy produce more goods than it bought from the Chinese. As a result, the country took a course on the so-called import substitution," the political scientist said.

In global terms, he said, India wants to take advantage of the cold war between the US and China if possible.

- It wants to fit into the West's production chains. Indians hope that American companies that the US is withdrawing from China will be relocated to India. The advantage is that Indians speak English and local workers should be paid less," the expert said.

He added that further development of the situation will depend on the dynamics of India's relations with the US and China, as well as Beijing's relations with Washington.

- The US believes that India, which is a valuable asset on China's southern border, should become its main partner. Ideally to become a bastion against China so that the PRC always has a troubled southern border. The Indians do not particularly agree with this yet, nor do they particularly aspire to it," the specialist summarized.

Andrei Kadomtsev, a political scientist and advisor to the Commissioner for Human Rights in the Russian Federation in 2009-2016, notes that under the previous US President Joseph Biden, US policy towards India emphasized geopolitics, military cooperation and trade.

"At the same time, the Biden administration accused India of involvement in a foiled plot to assassinate a Sikh activist on U.S. territory who favored the establishment of an independent Sikh state on the territory of the Indian state of Punjab. These allegations have complicated bilateral relations," the analyst said.

According to him, Trump does not care about such things. "The priority for his administration at the moment is trade and immigration issues. And the White House policy in the near future will be determined not only by India's reaction to Trump's demands, but also by the balance of power on these issues in Washington," the political analyst said.