Expert names the reasons for the growth of the Moscow Exchange Index

The growth of the Moscow Exchange index (IMOEX) is due to the foreign policy factor, namely, the expectations of market participants regarding potential agreements discussed in the international arena, Sergei Solovovykh, head of the department for work with wealthy clients of IC Fontvielle, told Izvestia on February 13.

Earlier, on February 12, it was reported from the trading data of the Russian stock indicator that the MosBirch ruble index with an additional code (IMOEX2) crossed the 3 ,200-point mark for the first time since July 3, 2024. Its growth began after Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. leader Donald Trump had a telephone conversation.

"The positive mood of the market in the last couple of months is supported by strong corporate reports and the view that the key rate has reached its maximum," the expert said.

According to him, the further dynamics of the index will depend on the further dynamics of the index will depend on the monetary policy (MP) of the Bank of Russia - the high key rate (21% per annum) in the short term limits liquidity, but with stabilization of inflation, a softening scenario is possible, which will be a positive signal for the market.

"Attractive financial indicators of companies support demand for shares, which in turn may contribute to market growth. The main dividend season in the Russian market falls in May-June, but market participants start to put their expectations into prices already from March," Solovykh explained.

In addition, in the short term, investors should take into account possible corrections in both directions and increased volatility against the backdrop of key foreign policy decisions.

"In terms of medium-term forecast, the potential for further growth of the index remains even without geopolitics. The most likely range of fluctuations for the next 3-4 months - 3200-3400 points," - summarized Solovykh.

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Before that, on February 10, it was reported that the MosBirch index exceeded the milestone of 3000 points for the first time since July 2024. Thus, by 14:41 Moscow time, the index amounted to 3002.34 points (+1.2%) - the maximum since July 26 last year. Among other factors, the increase was influenced by the rise in the price of Brent futures to $75.6 per barrel.