At a soaring rate: how long the ruble strengthening will last

Last Wednesday, February 12, a landmark event that had a serious impact on the geopolitical situation took place - Russian and U.S. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held their first talks since the American leader returned to the White House. The official contact took place in the format of a telephone conversation. Currency exchange rates have already reacted to the dialog of the heads of state. The ruble, in particular, moved to strengthening against the background of expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. What will happen to the national currency in the future - in the material "Izvestia".

Ruble reaction to the negotiations between Putin and Trump

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on Wednesday, February 12, held a telephone conversation, touching on several important topics on the world agenda. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov specified that the conversation lasted an hour and a half. According to the American leader, the conversation was long and productive. In addition, the presidents of Russia and the United States agreed on the possibility of a personal meeting in Saudi Arabia. Its date, however, has not yet been set.

The conversation between Putin and Trump naturally had a significant impact on the rates of national currencies of the Russian Federation and the United States. On February 12, in particular, the domestic currency soared to 93 rubles per dollar. And on Thursday, February 13, the rate of the U.S. currency to the ruble on the international currency market Forex for the first time since September 2024 fell to the mark of Br90 , at the moment the dollar cheapened to Br89.49. This is evidenced by data on the financial portals Tradingview and Investing.com on February 13. As of 10:32 Moscow time, $1 cost Br90.88.

The official rate for February 13, the Russian Central Bank set at Br94.05 per dollar. Such an indicator is fixed for the first time since October 2024.

Meanwhile, in the euro/ruble pair, the Russian currency strengthened to 94.78 rubles per euro. The value of the ruble to the yuan, in turn, rose by 4.80% to 12.29 rubles.

The exchange rate of the national currency strengthened amid expectations of decisive actions to organize negotiations on Ukraine from the new U.S. administration, experts believe. In addition to easing geopolitical tensions between Russia and America, seasonally low demand for currency from importers, favorable oil prices and tight monetary policy of the Central Bank played their role for exchange rates.

In addition to high interest rates, the ruble exchange rate has recently been strengthened by restrictions on currency outflow from Russia, high volumes of settlements in rubles for imports and a positive trade balance of the Russian Federation, Alexander Potavin, analyst of the Finam financial group, told Izvestia. The ruble is also strengthened by higher prices for Russian export goods. In such a situation, the wave of currency strengthening may last until the end of February, Potavin specified.

The limit of sales: 90 per dollar was called the lower threshold of ruble strengthening

Why the "American" suddenly fell below 94 rubles/$ and how long the positive trend will persist

However, one should not expect an excessive fall in the dollar value. The mark of Br90, according to experts, will be the limit of strengthening of the Russian currency in the current cycle.

- Most likely, the domestic currency will not strengthen below Br90 per dollar and Br94 per euro," said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Sovcombank expects that the lower boundary of trading in the U.S. currency will be set at the mark of 91 rubles. After that, according to the forecast of the stock market expert of "BKS World of Investments" Mikhail Zeltser, the dollar rate will start the upward cycle. This will be facilitated by the decline in the cost of oil and the growth of imports on the background of possible easing of sanctions.

Read more about why the dollar-ruble exchange rate is falling in Izvestia's analysis.

Objectively, the economy benefits most from a stable, albeit low ruble exchange rate, Sovcombank emphasizes. It reduces uncertainty for business and citizens. With a controlled exchange rate, the budget is also better replenished.

However, there are also advantages of a floating ruble exchange rate. It allows the economy to better cope with external shocks, quickly adapting to changing external conditions, such as fluctuations in commodity prices and sanctions.

What happened to the stock market

Reacted to the conversation between Putin and Trump and the Russian stock market. This is evidenced by the trading data on the Moscow Exchange.

The ruble index of the trading floor, in particular, on Wednesday evening rose on the background of reports about the negotiations between the heads of state by 2.38%, to 3,089.95 points. At the peak it reached 3,097.14 points. The total volume of trading in shares from the calculation of the Mosbirzhi index as of 20:41 amounted to 209.7 billion rubles.

At the opening of the trading session on Thursday, the Mosbirji index was equal to 3,220 points. After 08:10, it reached 3289.64 points, adding 2.8% compared to the closing of the evening session of the previous day. Last time such indicator was fixed in May 2024.

The prices of most blue chips (shares of the largest, most liquid and reliable companies) also showed growth, increasing by about 8.2%.

In general, the capitalization of the Russian market following the talks between Putin and Trump increased by 0.5 trillion rubles. As of 09:00, it reached Br7.05 trillion.