Financial analyst named the main factors of ruble strengthening against the dollar
Geopolitics is the dominant factor in strengthening the ruble, BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov told Izvestia on February 13.
"After yesterday's phone conversation between [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [American leader Donald] Trump, the market reacted by strengthening the ruble. Technically, we see that the dollar exchange rate fell to 91.76 rubles, stopping at an important level (trend line from the low of 52 rubles September 2022). If it is broken, it is possible to move to 90.5 rubles and even 87.5 rubles per dollar," the expert said.
However, he suggested that there is unlikely to be a prolonged sharp strengthening of the ruble with growing budget expenditures and low oil prices.
"Geopolitics, perhaps, today dominates over all other factors. It is enough to look at yesterday's market reaction: one news about the negotiations provoked the dollar to fall by more than 4.65% and the Moscow Exchange Index to rise by 5.78%," Antonov added.
According to him, until the beginning of spring the ruble will be significantly supported by the tax period, comfortable oil prices and a noticeable leveling of geo-economic tensions. Fluctuations of the dollar in the perspective of the current year has expanded to the range of 85-110 rubles, the analyst specified.
"In the current situation, all market participants live expectations of positive changes, but the reality can present any surprises. The only thing that can be said for sure is that increased volatility awaits us, and one should be ready for any development of events," the expert concluded.
February 12, analysts interviewed by "Izvestia" said that the limit of strengthening of the national currency in this cycle will be Br90 per dollar. This level is possible by early spring. Among a number of factors, the exchange rate is positively influenced by seasonally low demand for foreign currency on the part of importers and tight monetary policy of the RF Central Bank.
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