Experts named the factors of ruble strengthening

Several fundamental factors have recently contributed to the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate: high ruble interest rates, restrictions on the outflow of currency from Russia, high volumes of settlements in rubles for imports and a positive trade balance of the Russian Federation. Alexander Potavin, analyst of the Finam financial group, and Mikhail Zeltser, stock market expert at BKS Investment World, told Izvestia on February 12.

In addition, another important reason for the strengthening of the ruble at the beginning of the year is the increase in prices for Russian export goods. In such a situation, the wave of currency strengthening may last until the end of February, said Potavin.

At the same time, the Izvestia interlocutor added that strengthening of the ruble for only one month is not enough for its long-term positive impact on inflation in Russia. For this purpose, the exchange rate should be maintained for at least 3-4 months, the expert emphasized. And as for oil and gas revenues, on the contrary, a weaker ruble exchange rate could have a favorable effect on their balance.

"The fall of currencies is accelerating against the background of a large overhang of supply and demand deficit. The ruble is already +7% since the beginning of the year, and almost +10% since the peak in January. The expanded supply of currency is probably caused by the process of devalutization of companies hit by sanctions. These are both banks and exporters. Also, the Central Bank (Central Bank of the Russian Federation. - Ed.) under the budget rule in February began to sell more currencies," - said Zeltser.

The expert noted that foreign currency is pressured by the Central Bank rates, expensive loans for imports, as well as historically seasonal favorability of the ruble.

"In general, there is still such an imbalance of demand and supply of currency in the market: the ruble will rise in price, while the rates of foreign currencies - falling," - explained Zeltser.

Against the background of such a fall in foreign currencies, the Central Bank is likely to keep the key rate at 21%, the expert concluded.

Inflation imports: Will the strengthening ruble curb price growth?

The effects of the falling dollar are beginning to be felt

Earlier in the day, Chairman of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko said that the experience of the Russian "economic miracle" under sanctions will be included in the world economic textbooks. She noted that the growth rate of the Russian economy at the end of 2024 was higher than the world level, and called this result a huge achievement in the current environment.

Prior to that, on January 22, Potavin and Alexander Bagmanov, a leading investment consultant at Gazprombank Investments, told Izvestia that there are two reasons for the current ruble appreciation: the tax period and the seasonal decline in imports.