Russian grain exports to grow by 50% in 2024

Grain export volumes in 2024 are 50% above the average level of the last five years. This is one of the leading results in the world with a share of 17% of global volumes. The consolidated share of the main importing countries (Egypt, Turkey and Iran) amounted to 33%, VTB analysts who conducted a market study told Izvestia on February 12.

By 2030, agricultural exports will exceed $50 bln in accordance with the strategic plans of the Russian government. According to analysts' forecasts, the leading segments, in addition to grain, will be meat and dairy production, as well as food industry products.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, in 2024 meat exports increased by 27%: pork products - by a third, poultry - by a quarter, cattle meat - by 22%. At the same time, Russia's own meat supply now exceeds 100%. By 2030, meat exports will grow 2.6 times, to $3.7 billion, and vegetable oil - by 30%, to $7.5 billion. Confectionery and dairy products, flour and sugar may also add to the wide export set of products by 2030.

"Despite the sanctions pressure, the Russian economy remains stable, and the agro-industrial complex demonstrates outstripping growth rates. Now the agro-industrial complex is a highly efficient industry that produces high-quality and competitive products and has fully replaced imports in key types of products. According to our forecasts, the main markets for exported products of the agro-industrial complex (AIC) by 2030 will be China, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as South-East Asia. In our opinion, the Russian agro-industrial complex has significant growth potential both in these markets and in new directions," explained Dmitry Sredin, Head of VTB's Market Industries Client Relations Department.

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According to the analysts' study, the key growth factors for the sector in the coming years will be the increasing efficiency and experience of local producers, the potential to increase production relative to the current sown areas and production sites, the strong cost position of production facilities, as well as growing demand in global markets.

Restraining factors for the industry growth will be the tight monetary policy, which will force companies to revise their development plans and allocate free funds to optimize and improve production, and the shortage of personnel. Thus, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the staff shortage in the industry last year amounted to more than 200,000 people.

"Increasing production volumes for export and increasing the share of domestic agricultural (agricultural) products on the world market is one of the key factors of investment attractiveness and capitalization growth of the largest Russian agricultural holdings. We expect the emergence of new agricultural companies on the stock market in the coming years, as well as the transformation of the capital market into a significant source of attracting investment in the agricultural sector," summarized Stanislav Kleshchev, investment strategist at VTB's broker "My Investments".

Earlier, on January 29, the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Oksana Lut said that Russian agrarians at the end of 2024, tentatively, harvested 128 million tons of grain. The Minister added that Russia has the potential to develop exports. Thus, last year the country exported a record volume of grain - 72 million tons. According to Lut, the grain export potential for 2025 is 57 million tons.