"Open Portfolio": how much private investors could earn in January
Already at the beginning of the year, Russian private investors began to focus on new factors that can significantly affect the value of exchange-traded assets. Thus, many expect sanctions pressure to decrease after US President Donald Trump takes office, closely follow the Chinese breakthrough in AI technologies and start using innovations at the Moscow Exchange. This and the stock exchange results of January - in the material of "Izvestia".
Results of the month
The key local event for the Russian stock market and investors at the end of January was the resumption of morning trading on the Moscow Exchange. Although liquidity at morning trading is still significantly lower than in the evening and afternoon, the opportunity to make deals before the main session starts will allow investors to react, if necessary, to significant events that were reported after the end of the previous day's trading.
Also in the past month, trading in shares of retailer X5 started, the price of which even rose slightly on the first day. Even though there were investors who decided to sell the assets, a significant share of the owners of the shares kept the securities in order to get a three-year tax benefit. Besides, many of them are satisfied with the dynamics of the shares, which became available for buying and selling after re-registration of the legal entity in the Russian jurisdiction.
The launch of the Chinese open-source neural network DeepSeek was also a significant event for investors. Any significant news regarding this project is scrutinized by investors, as breakthroughs in the creation of AI intensify competition between their developers around the world, including Russian ones.
The inauguration of President Donald Trump, although to a lesser extent, has also become an important moment for the Russian financial market. Many investors expect that it will lead to some cooling of relations between Russia and the US, but no one is in a hurry to make fundamental investment decisions - first we need to wait for concrete steps and events.
Currency under the pillow - dollars, euros and yuan
The beginning of the year turned out to be quite strong for the ruble, because of which the portfolio value decreased by 5%. At the end of the month it amounts to 226.2 rubles.
An important change in the portfolio was the addition of the Chinese yuan to the basket against the dollar and euro. As the Chinese currency is rapidly gaining the status of a global currency, and trade ties between Russia and China are strengthening, the yuan is becoming important for investors diversifying their portfolios. In the future, its exchange rate will depend on the situation on the world markets and the Russian trade balance, as the Russian economy continues to be export-oriented.
The portfolio of exotic currencies was removed from the list of tracked assets, as trading in several of them was stopped, and in general the portfolio dynamics exceeded the worst expectations of investors.
Everything like in the bank - five issues of government bonds with monthly payments
In January, the value of the portfolio, consisting of OFZ, decreased by 4.88%, down to Br208.3 thousand, even despite coupon payments. Such increased volatility was caused by the additional issue of debt securities on seven issues - some investors closed their positions to take part in the placement at more favorable rates.
The global outlook on OFZs this year will depend on the Bank of Russia's MPC. It is the dynamics of the rate that will influence the current yield and expectations for its change. So far, the whole market is expecting a gradual easing of the key rate. If this process goes faster, the revaluation of long-distance OFZs will be the strongest.
Large companies, not the Ministry of Finance - corporate bonds
The local recovery on the corporate bond market continued, due to which the total value of the portfolio grew by a symbolic 0.24%. This is due to the fact that most of the securities in the portfolio have maturities of more than a year, reflecting the market's expectations of the key rate in a year's time. The total value at the end of the year is RUB 261 thousand, which is noticeably higher than the OFZ portfolio.
Events regarding OFZ issues did not affect this portfolio. Company debts are also subject to interest rate risk, and accordingly, we should expect the securities to show growth on the body while adapting the current market yield when the CBR key rate is lowered.
There is no better share than in a share - Russian blue chip stocks
The portfolio of the largest shares of Russian companies in January rose in price by 5.83%, up to the aggregate value of 277.8 thousand rubles. The main factor was the general market recovery.
One of the main factors of assets growth was the preserved effect of the decision of the Bank of Russia to keep the key rate in December. Dynamics of shares during the year will be determined by the geopolitical situation and further change of DCP.
Eyes fear, but hands do - speculative stocks with high potential
Shares of the lower echelons of MosBirch showed even more significant growth - plus 16.68% since the beginning of the year. The total value of the portfolio remains the highest among the others - 328.2 thousand rubles.
Increased volatility for this portfolio is a usual condition. In general, in the coming year the 2-3rd echelon will be most influenced by the interest of individuals and the entry of new companies on the stock exchange. Other factors will be the same as for the assets in the blue chips portfolio.
The opinions of analysts presented in this material, as well as the described examples of portfolios, do not constitute individual investment recommendations (IIR).
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