How Ukraine will pay for US aid. Parsing

US President Donald Trump has said that at the upcoming talks with Kiev he will raise the issue of Ukrainian rare-earth metals, which he wants to receive as compensation for the financial and military support provided by the United States. In a recent interview with Fox News, he specified that he wants to return the equivalent of $500 billion in rare earth minerals. Whether Ukraine has enough resources for this, on what terms it is ready to share its mineral resources, and what else the United States may demand from Kiev in exchange for assistance - in the Izvestiya article.

What the USA demands

- The US demanded from Ukraine compensation for the assistance that was provided during the conflict. Trump, as he himself told reporters, demanded from Ukraine to return the funds spent on it in the form of rare minerals equivalent to $ 500 billion. Ukraine, according to him, "in fact, agreed".

- Trump's special envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg earlier explained that the US does not want to repeat the mistake with Iraq: after that war, Washington has not received a single contract for Iraqi oil.

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- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (powers expired in May 2024) repeatedly spoke about the country's reserves of rare earth metals and other minerals to interest Washington in continued support. He even rejected a resource agreement with the administration of former US President Joe Biden to save that argument for negotiations with Trump. However, it can be assumed that he underestimated the new president by trying to outsmart him in his own sphere - business.

Why the U.S. needs rare earth metals

- The US President intends to get access to rare earth metals - a critical resource for the production of modern electronics and rare earth magnets used in the creation of unmanned aerial vehicles. He also counts on Ukrainian reserves of uranium, titanium, and especially lithium, an essential element for the production of car batteries and microchips.

- There are no deposits of lithium in the United States. But neighboring countries - Mexico and Canada - are rich in this metal, and almost a third of the world's reserves of rare earth elements is located in Greenland. This is probably one of the reasons for Trump's keen interest in these territories (we talked in detail about the reasons for the US president's interest in Greenland here).

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- About 90% of the world's production of all rare earth elements comes from China, from which the U.S. is forced to purchase these products. Since this position gives China leverage over the United States, Trump is interested in gaining access to Ukrainian minerals while preventing Russia, China, or Iran from developing them, as Kiev has warned him against.

What Zelensky was proposing

- Ukraine is home to deposits of 22 of the 50 critical minerals the US is interested in and 25 of the 35 critical elements on the European Union's list. Kiev has already offered European partners joint development of the deposits - the relevant agreement was signed in 2021. Later, Zelensky included the supply of natural resources and critical metals to strategic partners in his "victory plan."

- After Trump's election victory, Zelensky said that the interests of the United States in the development of deposits will be prioritized, since the United States has supplied Ukraine with most of the aid. At the same time, he ruled out the possibility of transferring the land into ownership, such an option is also not provided for by Ukrainian law. In fact, Kiev is offering the USA joint development of its deposits on partnership terms, and it is assumed that EU companies will also have access to the resources. However, there are doubts in the expert community that Washington is interested in this form of cooperation; it is more likely that it will want to get the fields under its full control.

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- In February, Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine is ready to make a deal with the US on rare earth metals, but in his wording it would be a payment for further US assistance, not for the assistance already provided. Ukraine is also willing to provide its underground gas storage facilities for U.S. liquefied natural gas and its transportation through its pipeline. Kiev has declared its intention to become a "gas hub for all of Europe."

- Kiev promises all these concessions to Trump not just in exchange for continued support, but also for help in liberating the territory where the fields are located and providing security guarantees - membership in NATO or the transfer of nuclear weapons. The Trump administration calls all these options unrealistic.

What resources Ukraine actually has

- Ukraine has about 5% of the world's reserves of rare earth elements, the total value of deposits is estimated at $26 trillion. At the same time, in August 2022, hydrocarbon and rare earth element reserves worth $12 trillion were located on the territory controlled by Russia.

- Kiev has been trying to start developing its resources for several years, but in fact the extraction of lithium, titanium and other rare elements in Ukraine has not even started yet. To begin development would require large investments in infrastructure and production facilities, which Kiev does not have. Therefore, the entire financial burden will fall on foreign investors, and given the fact that these subsoil resources will not become their property, the companies are unlikely to be interested in this.

- There were four lithium deposits in Ukraine, but at the moment there are only two left - both of them are located in Kirovograd region. Another deposit is in the DNR and one in the Zaporizhzhya region. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (which counted all four of these deposits as Ukrainian), as of 2024, Ukraine ranked fifth among European countries in terms of lithium.

- However, Ukraine's resources have not been fully explored, reserve estimates are not reliable, and currently 20% of the minerals, including half of Ukraine's rare earth reserves, are located on Russian territory, as confirmed by Zelensky.

What else Ukraine can pay with

- Earlier, Zelensky suggested replacing US servicemen in the NATO army with Ukrainian military personnel. According to experts, after the end of the conflict, Ukraine does not want to disband the AFU battalions because it will not be able to provide people with jobs and the level of earnings to which they are accustomed, which may create social tension inside the country.

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- Transferring the AFU soldiers to NATO forces would allow Kiev to maintain a combat-ready army, which would actually be maintained by the alliance members. The main obstacle to the implementation of this plan is the fact that Ukraine is not a member of the alliance and the prospects of membership for it are dim. The US Congress also rejected the proposal: senators opposed the withdrawal of US troops from Europe.

- Washington may be interested not only in rare earth minerals, but also in Ukraine's energy and gas sectors and its metal deposits. Agricultural land with fertile soil, thanks to which Ukraine is considered the "breadbasket of Europe", is also considered a resource that could be used for US interests.

Europe's response

- Trump's pragmatic approach was criticized by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He said that European countries were supporting Ukraine "without asking for anything in return," and that Kiev would need the mineral reserves to finance the country's reconstruction after the conflict ended.

- It is likely that Europe initially expected to be able to dispose of Ukraine's resources on its own, so Trump's statement came as an unpleasant surprise to the EU. It is not excluded that after the United States, other countries may also ask for reimbursement of aid to Kiev.

- At the same time, inside Ukraine itself , Zelensky is critical of the subsoil trade and believes that such proposals should be in line with national interests, otherwise foreign partners may "simply rake all resources to zero" and leave Ukrainians with nothing.

When preparing the material, Izvestia talked to and took into account the opinions of:

• Ivan Skorikov, political scientist and head of the Ukraine Department at the Institute of CIS Countries;
• political scientist Ivan Mezyukho;
• political scientist Dmitriy Levy.