Real wages will grow by 3.3% in 2025

In 2025, nominal wages will increase by 12.5%, while real wages, i.e. adjusted for inflation - by 3.3%, according to the results of the February macroeconomic survey of the Central Bank. This estimate is twice lower than the September forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, assuming an increase in real wages by 7% in 2025.

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According to Rosstat, in November 2024, the average gross salary in Russia amounted to 86.4 thousand rubles (before taxes). At the same time, according to hh.ru calculations, the median offered salary last year was at the level of 67 thousand.

"Most likely in 2025 the problem of staff shortage will remain. But the demand for employees may decrease as companies expect the economy to slow down: according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, GDP in 2025 will add 2.5% against 4.1% in 2024", - says Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis department of FG Finam.

The organizations are also under pressure from high interest rates and the increase in income tax to 25%, the expert added. All this, in her opinion, will force companies to optimize costs and limit their ability to raise salaries. According to the regulator's survey, in the next two years (2026 and 2027) the growth of real wages may further slow down to - 2.5%.

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Reduce income: real wages in 2025 will grow by only 3.3%