The Central Bank will keep the key rate at 21%

The Bank of Russia will keep the key rate at 21% at the end of the meeting on February 14. This is expected by 26 out of 30 financial market participants polled by Izvestia. Analysts believe that the Central Bank may take a pause until the trend of slowing down lending has taken hold in the economy, which contributes to lower inflation.

No surprises: what will happen to the key rate after the Central Bank meeting

Experts do not expect tightening of monetary policy

"Nevertheless, the Central Bank is likely to keep the signal about the possibility of further increase in the key rate at the next meetings," said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis department of FG Finam.

The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly specified that prices in Russia are rising due to problems on the side of production of goods and services. The regulator cannot influence the solution of this problem - the government is responsible for supporting the economy, and the Central Bank can only influence the demand in the economy.

Therefore, the level of the key rate depends largely on the slowdown in lending and the growth of savings activity. Banks' loan portfolios stopped growing sharply back in November, said Olga Belenkaya from Finam. Moreover, the corporate lending segment finally showed a decline - before that business was actively increasing debts despite high interest rates. This factor was crucial for the Central Bank when it increased the key rate in 2024 - and that's why it decided to pause in December.