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- At the edge of the world: the Baltic states are leaving the energy system united with Russia
On February 8, the Baltic States will leave the BRELL energy system, which is united with Russia and Belarus, after which they will start receiving electricity exclusively from the European Union. Experts say that the reconnection will have a number of serious consequences - tariffs will go up and the threat of blackouts will grow. "Izvestia" analyzed the situation.
There is only a moment
In the Soviet years, the unified energy system of the country (UES) functioned; after the collapse of the state, some of its fragments were preserved. Thus, the north-western part of the UES, which after 1991 consisted of Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (BRELL), continued to operate as one whole. In 2001, the five states entered into a formal agreement that spelled out the obligation to exchange electricity and support each other in emergency situations.
In 2004, the three Baltic republics joined the European Union, but the BRELL system continued to function. Firstly, the power engineers of all five republics had long established good relations, as they had been working with each other for many years. Secondly, Russian electricity tariffs have traditionally been lower than European ones, which means that the Baltic countries also benefited economically from the energy ring. Third, the Baltic grids were built during the Soviet era, so they did not fit well with the EU infrastructure.
Gradually, however, Baltic politicians decided that the three republics should reconnect to European networks. Thus, back in 2012, the Lithuanian Seimas passed a bill on disconnection from BRELL. Interestingly, even then, some deputies warned of severe consequences, including higher tariffs for consumers and increased budget expenditures for modernization of the energy infrastructure. These arguments, however, did not affect the outcome of the vote.
Further on, relations between the five BRELL countries only deteriorated. An acute crisis emerged in 2014, when Crimea became part of Russia. In addition, Moscow and Minsk began to jointly build the Belarusian nuclear power plant in Grodno Oblast. The project seemed to be beneficial to the Baltics, who could receive cheap and environmentally friendly electricity. But the reaction, on the contrary, turned out to be sharply negative. Vilnius declared a threat to safety and legally prohibited enterprises to buy products from BelNPP.
As a result, in 2017, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania officially announced their withdrawal from the energy ring, and in 2019 signed a roadmap for this process with the European Commission. Officials at the same time did not hide the fact that the decision was political in nature. "Our energy sector is still managed from the Moscow control room, the occupation has not ended. We must politically determine the issue of costs and reliability from the point of view of rationality," argued Lithuanian Energy Minister Zhigimantas Vaičiūnas.
No ring and no edge
It is known that the preparation of the Baltic countries for the exit from BRELL cost €1.6 billion, most of the costs were covered by the EU budget, and about a quarter was given by the republics themselves. This money was used to lay several sea cables that connected the region with Sweden and Finland, as well as to build the LitPol Link onshore power transmission line that connected Lithuania and Poland.
In April 2021, the region conducted a test disconnection from BRELL - for a few days it refused to import electricity from Russia and Belarus. The result was predictable - prices in the European part of Russia and the Urals went down by 1-3%, but in Lithuania the cost of electricity went up by 8.5%. At the same time, the experiment was not entirely clean, because the region continued to receive surplus generation from the Russian Kaliningrad region.
After the start of the special military operation in Ukraine, work on synchronizing the Baltics with the European grid accelerated. As a result, the region's final break with BRELL should take place in the next few days - the three countries are scheduled to go offline on February 8, and on February 9 they should be connected to the European continental grid. Then, the power lines that connect the region with Russia and Belarus will be gradually dismantled.
Authorities in the three countries say they are well prepared to leave the power ring, while warning that prolonged blackouts are still possible. "At best, no one will notice anything. But if problems arise, the next step will be to identify those consumers who will have to be disconnected. The worst scenario is a general blackout for 72 hours," Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Mihal said.
In turn, the Estonian Risk Prevention Bureau urges the country's residents to prepare well for the BRELL blackout. "Stock up on 3 liters of water per person and food with long shelf life, check the medicines you use, headache remedies and plasters. Prepare batteries, portable radios and alternative light sources, candles. Think about entertainment, e.g. buy cards or board games," advised Kaisa Niilo, an employee of the bureau.
Experts say that it is not only the moment of the Baltic States' break with BRELL that may be difficult, but also the probability of blackouts in general will increase. The fact is that the region "hangs" on several submarine cables and, in fact, one active power line with Poland. At the same time, offshore communications regularly suffer from accidents and breakdowns, with two such incidents in the Baltic alone this year.
Finally, another consequence will be an increase in tariffs. It is known that now Russian consumers pay an average of 4.7 rubles per kilowatt-hour, while in Poland this figure is twice as high. Accordingly, prices for Baltic residents will also gradually increase. For example, Arvi Hamburg, an Estonian expert, doctor of technical sciences and chairman of the energy commission of the country's Academy of Sciences, says that in the coming years tariffs will increase by at least 20-30%.
Fingers in the socket
Vsevolod Shimov, advisor to the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, calls the withdrawal from BRELL a political act.
- From the economic point of view, the Baltic states will make themselves monopolistically dependent on EU electricity producers, which will certainly lead to higher tariffs for consumers. In addition, the scheme of connection to European grids is more vulnerable compared to BRELL. In fact, the Baltics will "hang" on the submarine cables running through the Baltic Sea, as well as on the line through the so-called Suvalki corridor. As a result, the region will live under the constant threat of a massive blackout. But given that the Baltic regimes consider Belarus and Russia to be their main enemies, they are ready to pay such a price for imaginary energy independence," he says.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund and an expert of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, says that the reliability of the energy system in the Baltics will decrease.
- Under BRELL, these countries could receive virtually any volume of electricity at any time. Now the situation will change. The thing is that Finland and Sweden have a high share of hydropower, and it is very weather-dependent; in dry periods, these countries become buyers rather than suppliers. Poland has its own coal-fired generation, but European officials talk about the threat to the environment and demand that the capacity be taken out of circulation. It is clear that all these countries will primarily solve their own problems, while the Baltic energy sector will become less protected," he explains.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
