Premiere List: White House assured Israel of continued military support

Trump held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on February 4. He became the first foreign leader to pay an official visit to the United States after the inauguration of the new American president. The politicians' meeting coincided with the moment when indirect talks between Israel and Hamas are to begin to determine the second phase of the truce agreement, during which all Israeli hostages in Gaza are to be released. It is possible that Netanyahu was trying to convince Trump to approve the continuation of hostilities. The expert community believes that the primary task of the Israeli prime minister is to understand how deeply Trump is immersed in the Palestinian issue, and how he sees the role of the US in a peaceful settlement.

Trump and Netanyahu talks

The American and Israeli leaders met at the White House during Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the US. The two sides discussed bilateral cooperation, security in the Middle East and, most importantly, the implementation of agreements with Hamas on the transfer of hostages and cessation of hostilities in Gaza, concluded in January back on January 19 - one day before Donald Trump's inauguration.

The agreement was brokered by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar 15 months after the outbreak of hostilities in Gaza. Its first phase calls for a six-week ceasefire with the gradual withdrawal of IDF troops from densely populated areas of Gaza, as well as the exchange of Israeli hostages for more than 1,850 Palestinians. The movement is obliged to release 33 people in 42 days. The handover must take place every Saturday, with Hamas obliged to release three each and 14 captives on the 42nd day of the truce. So far, the fragile truce has held: hundreds of people from both sides have been released in the past two weeks.

Hamas told Izvestia that the deal would not have been possible were it not for Trump's pressure on Netanyahu. Earlier, the new White House chief sent his special envoy for the Middle East, Steven Whitkoff, to Israel. The Israeli prime minister softened his bellicose stance and did not speak out against Trump's desire to resolve the conflict, but expressed his intention to maintain control over parts of Syria and Lebanon. Back in January, Israel warned that it would resume hostilities if Hamas violated the terms. Trump himself, speaking about the truce, also did not rule out that hostilities could continue.

Parallel to Netanyahu's visit to the US, negotiations on the second phase of the agreement with the Palestinian movement will start. Israel has already sent a delegation of negotiators to the Qatari capital Doha to discuss the details, which, by the way, remain unknown to a wide audience. However, as in the first part of the agreement, the second phase should continue with the exchange of hostages and prisoners. Overall, the deal involves three phases, and the last one is expected to negotiate the reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed in Gaza. U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Steven Whitkoff has noted that the sector is uninhabitable and will take 10-15 years to rebuild. The same view, as reported by Reuters, is held by Trump himself.

- Netanyahu's first task is to understand how deeply Trump is immersed in the Palestinian issue and how he sees the US role in a peaceful settlement," Leonid Tsukanov, an orientalist and consultant to the Global and Regional Security: New Ideas for Russia program, told Izvestia. - If Biden's team planned to achieve a full-fledged settlement and thus balance the position of key Middle Eastern partners, Trump only promised to "end the conflict," without promising to resolve the Palestinian issue.

The new US administration's Middle East strategy

Donald Trump's first presidential term (2017 - 2021) was characterized by full support for Israel. Thus, in late 2017, Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there. Two years later, he proclaimed the US recognition of the sovereignty of the Jewish state over the occupied Golan Heights and mediated the "Abraham Accords" (signed in 2020 between Israel and Arab countries - UAE, Bahrain and Morocco - to establish diplomatic relations. In 2021, Sudan joined the agreements - Ed.). In addition, the offices of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Washington were closed under Trump.

Trump's second term began with no less radical initiatives, such as the "cleanup" of the Gaza Strip, implying the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan. Earlier, he noted that it could involve both temporary and long-term residence of Palestinians in a new place, and that such an initiative could affect 1.5 million people.

Judging by the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu became the first foreign leader to visit the White House after Trump's return, the American leader intends to continue supporting the Jewish state. Itis possible that the U.S. may increase financial and military aid to Israel. According to The Wall Street Journal, the presidential administration has asked Congress to approve new deliveries of arms and military equipment to the country for about $1 billion. The deal includes the sale of 4.7 thousand 450 kg bombs for more than $700 million, as well as armored bulldozers for more than $300 million. On February 4, Trump's national security adviser Michael Walz said that the U.S. will not slow down the sale and shipment of U.S. arms to Israel.

In addition, the continued anti-Iranian course taken by the president-elect during his first tenure in the White House also deserves special attention. It was under Trump that Iranian General Qassem Suleimani was assassinated. In addition, in 2018, the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the "nuclear deal."

On February 4, Trump signed an executive order to resume the policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran. It aims to deprive Tehran of all avenues to obtain nuclear weapons and damage its "hostile" activities in the region. He also signed an executive order directing the United States to withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council as well as from UNRWA (the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East), Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, Steven Whitkoff, said the U.S. administration is already working on a solution to the Palestinian resettlement problem, as well as trying to achieve positive results in the first two phases of the ceasefire deal. He noted that the third phase, namely the reconstruction of Gaza, needs to be reconsidered due to the impossibility of quickly rebuilding the exclave.

Regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict, the minimum task for the US is to finalize the hostage exchanges between Israel and Palestinian Hamas. Their completion is part of Trump's campaign promises. Further development of the conflict will largely depend on Netanyahu's willingness to promptly take into account the wishes of the White House. The resumption of full-fledged hostilities is not in Trump's interests yet, but some hawks are in favor of curbing Hamas' capabilities, Leonid Tsukanov believes.

- It is not certain that the White House will be as accommodating under the current circumstances. Especially since Washington's other regional allies (Saudi Arabia, UAE) insist on gradual détente and are not too interested in consolidating Israeli control over Gaza," the expert said.

Earlier Axios wrote that Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in convincing Donald Trump to approve a plan to abandon the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal and continue fighting against Hamas. One of the portal's interlocutors suggested that if Netanyahu decides not to move to the second phase, it could lead to the war in Gaza to topple Hamas dragging on for at least another year. Speaking at the 14th Middle East Conference of the Valdai International Discussion Club on February 4, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov drew attention to signals of problems with the second phase of the agreement between Hamas and Israel.

- We are already receiving signals that there will be problems with the second stage and they have probably already started, because the Israeli ruling circles are sending out such messages, saying that we are not satisfied with the way Hamas has fulfilled its obligations under the first stage, so we are not ruling anything out," he said.

Russia's position

By the way, Russia's position on the Palestinian issue remains unchanged. Moscow continues to work in the interests of achieving inter-Palestinian unity, which envisages the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

On February 3, Russian Presidential Special Envoy for the Middle East and Africa and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met with Hamas Deputy Politburo Chief Musa Abu Marzouk. In the conversation, he emphasized the importance of releasing Alexander Trufanov and other hostages from captivity. The Russian Foreign Ministry noted that the sides also discussed the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip "with a focus on the importance of increasing the volume of humanitarian aid to the affected Palestinian population".

It should be noted that so far Hamas and Israel have not engaged in dialog on the exchange of prisoners of war. Moussa Abu Marzouk told Izvestia.

- As for the military, we are not talking about it yet, because negotiations about all of this have not yet begun, and we are not talking about anything related to POWs at the moment - neither the parameters of the exchange, neither the living nor the dead, nor where they are. We are not discussing these problems, we are not talking about what the solutions will be," he said, responding to a question regarding the life and health of the prisoner, Donbass native Maxim Kharkin.

The issue of Harkin's release has been repeatedly raised by the Russian side. According to the Palestinian movement's version, he fought on the IDF side, while Israeli sources say he was in the reserves. Also remaining in Hamas captivity is Russian citizen Alexander Trufanov, who will soon be released as part of the deal. According to Hamas, his life and health are not in danger.

It is important for the region and the Russian Federation whether Trump will support the issue of resettling Palestinians from Gaza to surrounding countries, said Andrei Baklanov, deputy chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

- If Trump approves the resettlement, it will be a major, at least psychological victory for Israel. Thus, he will support the Israeli prime minister's rather dubious ideas, bailing him out, because the original plan was to do just that. So far Netanyahu has not succeeded, as we can see the Jordanians and Egyptians have closed the borders. We are certainly concerned about that, because depending on that, we will be looking at our possible initiatives. Today we were considering whether we should take the initiative to hold a broad international conference on the situation in Gaza and the West Bank, " he told Izvestia.

The expert also noted that Russia's official position on the creation of two independent states has not changed since the famous speech in 1947 by Andrei Gromyko, then the USSR's Permanent Representative to the UN, who proposed either the creation of a single Arab-Jewish state with equal rights or two independent states. The first option was rejected by Jewish organizations, which found it unacceptable.