Trump's duties will collapse trade with a number of countries by 30-50%

Customs duties imposed by the new US President Donald Trump, which are to take effect from February 4, will lead to a halving of trade with Canada and Mexico, and with China - by at least a third. Such calculations were made by experts interviewed by Izvestia.

Cut to the gut: why Trump canceled federal aid in the U.S.

The administration is being forced to cut spending - mostly at the expense of political opponents

Now America's trade turnover with neighboring countries is about $600 billion and $800 billion respectively. According to the World Bank, Canada and Mexico are significantly dependent on the United States for exports - they account for almost 80% of supplies. Trade with China due to the new duties will decrease by at least a third - last year it amounted to $700 billion.

Reduction of trade turnover is possible if the countries do not make any compromises with the United States and do not fulfill certain conditions, for example, to control the flow of migration, said independent expert Andrei Barkhota.

"In order to bear fruit, the tariff policy should act point by point - it is analogous to a surgical tool, not a sledgehammer. But a solid increase in import duties for all goods, including those that are important for the American industry, may do more harm," said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at FG Finam.

According to Dmitry Volodin, a researcher at the Institute of the US and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Russian economy may be affected only by the duties directed against Beijing. Since 2022, Russia has virtually no trade with Canada, and the level of trade turnover with Mexico is at a low level, said the specialist.