An expert predicted the ruble exchange rate for February

For the Russian currency, the US dollar correction is the main February positive factor. In the CNY/RUB currency pair the range of fluctuations in February will be 13.3-13.8, in the USD/RUB pair - 97-102, EUR/RUB - 101-106. This was told to Izvestia on February 1 by Arthur Meinhard, head of the analytical department for global markets at IC Fontvielle, and Vladislav Silaev, senior trader at Alfa Capital Management Company.

"Given the withdrawal of foreign investors, this strategy is not working now. Undoubtedly, the Russian market is attractive for foreign capital, but it is not available yet. In my opinion, all three factors will continue to put pressure on the ruble this year," Meinhard said.

According to him, the sanctions have complicated financial chains for export-oriented companies and increased their transaction costs for intermediary agents, reaching 5-7%, depending on the complexity of the transaction. Both factors also reduce the volume of foreign currency supply in the domestic market. Besides, under the conditions of high key rate, the Russian currency could be supported by kerry-trade operations conducted by foreigners.

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If nothing extraordinary happens, the ruble will remain at the current levels in January - March

According to experts, in February the correction of the US dollar, which is currently taking place on the world currency market, will work as a counterbalance. The DXY index, which measures the "strength" of the U.S. currency, in January tested the maximum for the last 22 years (if we do not count the abnormal 2022), having reached its peak of 110.18 points on January 13, it began to gradually decline.

"In my opinion, the growth that we have seen in it since the end of September 2024 amid expectations of political innovations related to the election of US President Donald Trump has reached its local maximum. This means that the U.S. dollar will gradually move into the more familiar 'strong range' of 103-106 points, to which it is now moving," explained Meinhard.

In addition, the Russian ruble exchange rate continued to grow today. On the over-the-counter market, the U.S. dollar decreases by 0.52% to 97.98 rubles. The euro is declining by 0.74%, to 101.61 rubles. The Chinese yuan on Mosbirge, on the contrary, is growing - up to 13.2700 rubles, said Silaev.

Earlier, on January 30, the first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia Vladimir Chistyukhin during the presentation of the program said the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and MosBirch plans to launch a new stock market index in July 2025 as part of the program to create shareholder value of companies. According to him, the new index will include securities of issuers selected according to special criteria - companies will be selected according to certain financial indicators, the quality of corporate governance and the level of information transparency.